Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Be back in a couple of hours....wonder how much will change by then. :)

Quoting Patrap:


Buckle in, folks..

Boogity,Boogity,boogity.

Lets go tropical Blogging..Boyz

I love DW Pat.

Quoting Dakster:


I've been through the same thing a few times now. The first few days aren't that great and sleep is something that doesn't come easily. Although time may not "heal" all wounds, it at least dulls the pain.

True.
Take time, Aussie.

Quoting P451:


Would four days of imagery help them?

;-)





Link to 2nd uploaded file if bandwidth dies on posted image.

Very Nice. Thanks for that.

Quoting superpete:
Kman: Good evening, how is it outside down your side tonight?

Hi Pete,

It's been quite an interesting day. Early afternoon we had winds sustained around 35 to 38 mph with gusts to 43 mph.

Right now its better but not nice. Winds gusting between 14 and 25 mph and variable out of the SE to S. Raining

Not a good night to walk the dog ( fortunately I don't have one )

Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Well, the area over the Windwards has now been flagged by the NHC but 96L seems to be engaged in Plan B. Squally weather has set in here again after a break this afternoon.

Sometimes these systems just sit over the NW Caribbean until they organize. Motion in any particular direction is not a given until then.

yep, kind of like how systems organize in the pacific

Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ATCF - FIX

Click on where it says "fal962010.dat" and then you'll see the numbers. Here's the thing, make sure to scroll to your right because that is where the info is.

*Obviously click on the corresponding system, but in this case I just pointed out 96L.

Thanks! And yeah I kinda figured what you wrote with the star lol.

FWIW, the 18z regional Canadian model shows 96L shooting up toward Mobile Bay in 48 hours:

Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.

Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa.

I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form.

INV/XX/XL
MARK
16.1N/59.8W

Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.

Thanks, I was wondering about that, also. How are you this evening?

WOW. Patrap... Nice Radar.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/XX/XL
MARK
16.1N/59.8W

Thats looking interesting....

96L may be impacting in 72-80 in my estimate at the fwd speed of the envelope.

which will change up and down as it develops

Looks like 95L is coming in to shore. Pressure drops all along the coast.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring?

lol .. maybe the atlantic's 1st supercane

Quoting Patrap:
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Had some nice midlevel rotation earlier today... I think we'll see things in the lower level coalesce more tomorrow.

Quoting Patrap:
96L may be impacting in 72-80 in my estimate at the fwd speed of the envelope.

which will change up and down as it develops

Will it take that long to get to the MX/TX border Pat?

KOTG - The windward islands "disturbance" seems to be forming the same way Alex and 96L are...

1005.2 at the buoy. Not spurious, perhaps.

42056 at 9:50PM EDT 1005mb still falling rapidly but winds continue only 5-8Kts only.

42057 shows pressure 1013mb and rising

95L & 96L Models... 96L models shifted to the East...

Quoting msgambler:
Will it take that long to get to the MX/TX border Pat?

That solution is decreasing each run today

According to the TWO on 96L:

"NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS."

Looks like we may have Tropical Storm Bonnie right when a closed surface circulation develops.

No I don't think I do. Already here in Texas too much rain, only ones have a field day are the mosquitos. I think this year we have to take one day at a time and just do the best we can.

INV/96/L
MARK
16.1N/80.8W

Quoting Patrap:


That solution is decreasing each run today

You couldn't tell the saracastic tone I had, I take it...LOL

Quoting msgambler:
You couldn't tell the saracastic tone I had, I take it...LOL

LOl..I did.

But Im sure dem masse's didnt

Quoting AstroHurricane001:
According to the TWO on 96L:

"NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS."

Looks like we may have Tropical Storm Bonnie right when a closed surface circulation develops.

We had TS force winds here around 2 today gusting to as much as 49 mph over a one hour period. Without a closed surface low, no TD or TS.

This is one crazy lil' buoy.

Quoting brla61:

Thanks, I was wondering about that, also. How are you this evening?

Excellent! And you?

96L revving the engine in the Se Quad corner.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is one crazy lil' buoy.

Help, I've fallen and I can't get up !

BTW, 1005mb is low enough to produce winds of 30-35kts based on 1013mb from 42057.

Quoting kmanislander:


Help, I've fallen and I can't get up !

LOL!

Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - The windward islands "disturbance" seems to be forming the same way Alex and 96L are...

as all will dev the same
we really have
wpac type sst's and other factors
which more than likly will govern
most systems this season
till sst's begin the downward turn
and we wring out some water vapour from the atomsphere

Pat, I can see I am gonna have to make a trip to my local Wal-Mart for beer, coffee, and doritos. Gonna be a long week.

Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.

Typhoons and hurricanes are usually formed from different patterns, although how they develop and intensify is exactly the same. The pattern that spawns them, however, is different.

Quoting bwi:
1005.2 at the buoy. Not spurious, perhaps.

No way. Not believing that ob....

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa.

I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form.

True. Good points.