Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2651. pottery 02:21 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa. I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form. True. Good points. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20719

2654. MiamiHurricanes09 02:22 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2655. Dakster 02:22 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: as all will dev the same we really have wpac type sst's and other factors which more than likly will govern most systems this season till sst's begin the downward turn and we wring out some water vapour from the atomsphere Yep... Nice poem. I see Patrap is still ignoring me... Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942

2656. Patrap 02:23 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msgambler: Pat, I can see I am gonna have to make a trip to my local Wal-Mart for beer, coffee, and doritos. Gonna be a long week. Id get that done in the am ASAP. Cuz when this gets a name and the networks,which runs about 18 hours behind us here will have the a run on the stores somewhere. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2657. kmanislander 02:23 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: No way. Not believing that ob.... I agree. Maybe the barometer fell in the water or something. Nothing in any of the surface graphics supports that. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2658. BahaHurican 02:24 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
is that Freak91 in the blog??? Good 2 seeya, kid! Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17689

2659. Patrap 02:24 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Dakster: WOW. Patrap... Nice Radar. I c-yas. Just eating and blogging. COol whip and a brownie Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2660. Tazmanian 02:24 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle. hold on there slow down its not even the end of july yet Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361

2661. FLWeatherFreak91 02:25 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: is that Freak91 in the blog??? Good 2 seeya, kid! Hey Baha Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

2662. MiamiHurricanes09 02:25 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
00:00 UTC shows the highest 925mb vorticity consolidating around the strongest convection. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2663. atmoaggie 02:26 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting P451: Oops! Green one on the image.... First impression is that it is most certainly an error. Yet, the QC algorithms let it through... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2664. Patrap 02:26 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Increase in the showers in Mississippi Sound as the Atmosphere moistens up a tad tonight. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2665. mikatnight 02:26 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: Id get that done in the am ASAP. Cuz when this gets a name and the networks,which runs about 18 hours behind us here will have the a run on the stores somewhere. And that's why i read this blog to get that 18 hour head start Member Since: 18 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1983

2666. MiamiHurricanes09 02:26 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: hold on there slow down its not even the end of july yet Crazy huh? Well they all have a good chance of becoming a TS. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2667. Dakster 02:26 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I thought you were mad at me... Welp. Time for me to go to bed. Hopefully I don't wake up to any "surprises" or more circles! Good night all. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942

2668. msgambler 02:26 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
At least not too many crows will perish Pat. It is just the 2 of us that seem to have this agreement. Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

2669. atmoaggie 02:27 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I agree. Maybe the barometer fell in the water or something. Nothing in any of the surface graphics supports that. Would be anomalously high pressure in that scenario... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2670. weathersp 02:27 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle. I don't know about getting to D before the 10th LOL but out of all of the wave's right now, this one is got the most going for it... which is time.. and albit low shear. Member Since: 14 janvier 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

2671. Mikla 02:27 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Buoy and METAR info... Member Since: 13 octobre 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 201

2673. Patrap 02:27 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

2674. gordydunnot 02:27 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Just got home from fireworks, what's up with the NHC map looks like their using illegal fireworks or is that just a shot gun approach. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2675. MiamiHurricanes09 02:28 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting weathersp: I don't know about getting to D before the 10th LOL but out of all of the wave's right now, this one is got the most going for it... which is time.. and albit low shear. I think all 3 systems that I pointed out have a good chance of becoming a TS. Weather456 can explain clearly why I believe that. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2676. kmanislander 02:28 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Would be anomalously high pressure in that scenario... Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2677. MrstormX 02:28 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
It fell so quick, that to me usually indicates some kind of an error... either that or 96L is really strengthening quick. Member Since: 27 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4233

2678. Tazmanian 02:29 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Crazy huh? Well they all have a good chance of becoming a TS. ture Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361

2679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:29 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day. i didn't think anyone notice but you been here a bit so its expected Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40660

2681. atmoaggie 02:29 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Just got home from fireworks, what's up with the NHC map looks like their using illegal fireworks or is that just a shot gun approach. Hadn't thought of that. Maybe the NHC needs to use red, white, and blue on their maps when their just playing around. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2683. Bordonaro 02:29 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute. To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up! The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer. Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid exercising or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day. Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2684. aquak9 02:29 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
goodness. I come back and it's four circles. shotgun approach, gordy. :) Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

2685. bwi 02:30 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: No way. Not believing that ob.... Maybe the buoy tipped over! Wind readings died same hour pressure plummeted. We'll know soon enough. Any ship obs? Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1134

2686. LADobeLady 02:30 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: You don't really want to know, do you? No I'm southern and live on the coast of LA so I'm happily doing my Scarlett O'Hara thing and will think about it tomorrow. I love swimming down the bayou of denial...oil and all. Member Since: 29 juillet 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2687. Tazmanian 02:30 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
hey 09 do you think will be up too the N storm by the end of the july if we see thing rely pick up Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361

2688. Asta 02:30 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring? Snow!- just kidding.. but nothing would surprise me... Member Since: 4 juillet 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

2690. Hurricanes101 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
um Plywood, JFV or whatever your name is 96L is not getting sheared and for anyone who wondered why you should be banned for good, your last post is an example your condescending nature towards other is not welcome here Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2691. aquak9 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
can't forget the zombie. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

2692. LADobeLady 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting aquak9: goodness. I come back and it's four circles. shotgun approach, gordy. :) Shhhh Aquak that is just the NHC having some fun with their crayons! :) Member Since: 29 juillet 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2693. BDAwx 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
how about that. Member Since: 3 août 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

2694. aspectre 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
2612 Patrap "[Radar Loop of 95L]" So the CoC is back over land? Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2695. hercj 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Good night all! Busy day tomorrow. Night Senior. Member Since: 5 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2696. HurricaneSwirl 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
On this date in 2005 we were following Tropical Depression 4, which would later become Tropical Storm Dennis the next day. Dennis would become the strongest July hurricane only to have that record broken just a week later by Emily. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

2697. aquak9 02:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
ladobelady♥ Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

2698. MiamiHurricanes09 02:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: hey 09 do you think will be up too the N storm by the end of the july if we see thing rely pick up No. Lol. From what I'm currently seeing and thinking, (call me crazy, lol) I believe we will see 5 named storms in the month of July. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2699. brla61 02:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting pottery: Excellent! And you? I'm great!. Just trying to learn here. don't know much about weather but for some reason i'm addicted. lurking every week since Gustave hit. Member Since: 21 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61

2700. atmoaggie 02:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment. Sry, just hit me that it would cause high pressure...figured I'd say as much. No biggie, of course. Yeah, something's not right. Though, I'm pretty sure these major moored buoys have 2 barometers. I know they have 2 anemometers. Been to the workshop they are built in and deployed from, once. (Where's that guy that had an internship at NDBC? He might know) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2701. viman 02:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Good evening all, seems Like we may run out of floaters this year. Lol -- What would the AOI east of the Leeward Islands be, Invest 97L or 98L? Which came first the AOI east of SFla or the one east of the Islands and would that determine how it gets classified? TIA Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

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