Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010 +2
Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...
Categories: Hurricane
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2701. viman 02:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Good evening all, seems Like we may run out of floaters this year. Lol -- What would the AOI east of the Leeward Islands be, Invest 97L or 98L? Which came first the AOI east of SFla or the one east of the Islands and would that determine how it gets classified? TIA
Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
2702. MiamiHurricanes09 02:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Hurricanes101:
um Plywood, JFV or whatever your name is

96L is not getting sheared and for anyone who wondered why you should be banned for good, your last post is an example

your condescending nature towards other is not welcome here
I believe he was referring to the tropical wave east of the Antilles.
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2703. aquak9 02:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008
2705. Tazmanian 02:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. Lol. From what I'm currently seeing and thinking, (call me crazy, lol) I believe we will see 5 named storms in the month of July.


ok
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2706. Patrap 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626
2707. pottery 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment.

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712
2708. bohonkweatherman 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Good night StormW, I don't care what the rest of the bloggers think, you are alright in my book. :)
Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
2709. HurricaneSwirl 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
On this date in 2005 while we were also following newly designated TD4 we were also following TD3 as it did not get named before it hit the Yucatan and it emerged into the GOM on this day 5 years ago to become Tropical Storm Cindy and hit east LA as a TS, but was upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2710. Hurricanes101 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
96L is in a favorable environment, structure is improving

as was said earlier, the warming of the cloud tops is due to diurnal impacts, since 96L does not yet have a surface low it cannot be self-sufficient

I do feel we should see 97L out of the area east of the Islands by tomorrow morning the latest and we could see 98L out of the area by the Bahamas as well.
Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902
2711. kputerman26 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Mikla:
95L & 96L Models... 96L models shifted to the East...


How do you get that on Google Earth?!??
2712. Patrap 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting aquak9:
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream


Mmmm...ice cream.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626
2713. atmoaggie 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting bwi:


Maybe the buoy tipped over! Wind readings died same hour pressure plummeted. We'll know soon enough. Any ship obs?
Maybe a rogue wave swamped it? Still, would have high pressure if in the water...I think.
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute.

To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up!

The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer.

Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid mercerizing or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day of the day.

Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill.
hey bo we are under the heat as well here

WOCN11 CWTO 050127
Humidex advisory
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region. 9:27 PM EDT Sunday
4 July 2010.

Humidex advisory issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay.

..Hot, hazy and humid conditions on tap this week..

A typical hot weather pattern for Southern Ontario is setting up with
an area of high pressure Southeast of the Great Lakes.
Southwest winds along the northern edge of this high are transporting
hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels into the area.

Humidex values reached into the mid to high thirties today and are
expected to climb to 40 or more on Monday. The heat and humidity
will likely remain for 3 or 4 days until a cold front provides some
relief later this week.

Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the low twenties and will
be accompanied by uncomfortable humidity levels over the next several
days. So, there will be little in the way of night-time relief
during this spell of hot, hazy and humid weather.

This is an advisory that high humidex values are expected in these
Regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

END/OSPC


WLCN11 CWTO 041916
Smog advisory
Updated jointly by Environment Canada and the Ontario Ministry of
Environment at 3:16 PM EDT Sunday 4 July 2010.

Smog advisory continued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton.

Today will be a day of elevated air pollution. Help spare the air by
taking public transit or by car pooling. The air quality index is
Expected to exceed the poor threshold of 50..Due to ground level
ozone/fine particulate matter/ozone and fine particulate matter.

The remainder of today will continue sunny and hot with light winds
due to a stagnant weather pattern. Pollutants from us and Ontario
sources will react with sunlight to form photochemical smog and
accumulate further over today's levels.

Many of our leisure activities contribute to smog formation.
Help spare the air by reducing car trips..Avoiding the use of oil
Based paints..Solvents..And gas powered engines such as lawn mowers
and chain saws.

During the episode individuals may experience eye irritation.
Heavy outdoor exercise may cause respiratory symptoms such as
coughing or shortness of breath. People with heart or lung disease
including asthma may experience a worsening of their condition.

For further information contact Kate Jordan at the Ontario Ministry
of Environment 416-314-6666.

END/OSPC

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2715. cajunroach 02:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
regional 18z cmc- mobile bay in 48 hrsLink
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2716. Tazmanian 02:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
so when could we see 97L 09?
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2717. Hurricanes101 02:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I believe he was referring to the tropical wave east of the Antilles.


oh right the one with the anticyclone over it lol

either way
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2719. MrstormX 02:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good night StormW, I don't care what the rest of the bloggers think, you are alright in my book. :)


Was someone dissing Storm? Thats no good, he is one of the best bloggers on here.
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2720. msgambler 02:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting aquak9:
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream
Evening Aqua, Your making me hungry. Please stop talking about food....LOL
Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
2721. MiamiHurricanes09 02:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:
Maybe a rogue wave swamped it? Still, would have high pressure if in the water...I think.
Yes pressure would go up if underwater (a little something I learned from a met on channel 7 down here in Miami).
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
2722. kputerman26 02:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Mikla:
Buoy and METAR info...


and this also...
2723. zoomiami 02:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...


Too funny Pottery --- as long as it isn't near my house.
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065
2724. atmoaggie 02:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...
ROFL.
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2725. MiamiHurricanes09 02:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Tazmanian:
so when could we see 97L 09?
Later tonight or this morning with 98L following shortly after.
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2726. Patrap 02:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
96l Could be the Real Oil-Zilla
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2727. Hurricanes101 02:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Area east of the Bahamas has potential too, or else the NHC would have never put a yellow circle on it
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2728. beell 02:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
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2729. Mikla 02:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
It's on my weather website.
Quoting kputerman26:


How do you get that on Google Earth?!??
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2730. Tazmanian 02:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Later tonight or this morning with 98L following shortly after.


where would 98L be going
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2731. Patrap 02:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Watcha think atmo..?

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2732. Asta 02:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute.

To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up!

The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer.

Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid mercerizing or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day of the day.

Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill.

Good advice! and read the labels..
Make sure there is no caffeine, licorice root, or chromium picolinate.. I think that they can also make your heart race... Check with your Doctor if you have heart issues..
The key is:
Hydration, hydration, hydration!
and check on elderly people that you know...
and make sure that your pets have extra water and a cool place to be..

Member Since: 4 juillet 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018
2734. gordydunnot 02:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
That's my strong advice stay home in the AC if you must imbibe. And do not operate heavy machinery that includes cars.
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2735. zoomiami 02:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.

Makes me nervous.
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2736. MiamiHurricanes09 02:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Tazmanian:


where would 98L be going
Lol you're killing me. Well steering would take it towards the Bahamas and then recurve it towards the Atlantic thereafter.
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2737. Tazmanian 02:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
09 i think 96L i now re forming its low under the deepets t-storms
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2738. Hurricanes101 02:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting zoomiami:
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.


welcome to 2010 lol

95L is running out of time, I dont see us getting a name out of all 3 systems of the other systems, but I do see us getting 2

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2739. Orcasystems 02:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
2714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010


Poor snookums :(
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2740. brla61 02:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Please say it aint so..Pat!
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2741. Tazmanian 02:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol you're killing me. Well steering would take it towards the Bahamas and then recurve it towards the Atlantic thereafter.



ok
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2743. Patrap 02:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

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2744. bohonkweatherman 02:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
No one was doing that, just a little Tropical Humor. The High Pressure in the Northeast along with the Heat up there I think is a playing factor into what is going on in the tropics, so to me they are kind of connected?
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2745. hunkerdown 02:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...
+1
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2746. aquak9 02:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting Tazmanian:


where would 98L be going


Whoa, Taz! We're only up to 96L right now. I'm stuck here like a thumb surrounded by hot water.

One at a time!! :)
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008
2747. kmanislander 02:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...


Crazy reading for sure. Don't know what to make of it other than equipment malfunction. The alternative is that 96L is faking us out LOL
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2748. MiamiHurricanes09 02:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting zoomiami:
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.

Makes me nervous.
The only area unlikely to develop is 95L due to its proximity to land, massive dry air intrusion, high shear, and the fact that it is non-tropical and attached to a frontal boundary. All the other 3 areas currently being circled by the NHC, I think, all have a good chance of becoming a tropical storm.
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2749. Orcasystems 02:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting zoomiami:
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.

Makes me nervous.


You gonna get wet Zoo... no two ways about it.
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2750. Patrap 02:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

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2751. Tazmanian 02:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010    
Quoting aquak9:


Whoa, Taz! We're only up to 96L right now. I'm stuck here like a thumb surrounded by hot water.

One at a time!! :)


hey its 2010
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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