Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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2951. Patrap 03:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Jar head Invest July 1980 Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409

2952. Patrap 03:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting RuBRNded: lol, i have brothers that are squids and jarheads in my family, its always interesting when we get together I bet. Mine as well. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409

2953. JLPR2 03:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TxMarc71: what the heck happened to lil ol 95l?? Nothing, it just lost the little weak convection it had developed. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2954. hercj 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I am out. Night Pat talk to you tomorrow. Member Since: 5 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2955. xcool 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L BYE Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2956. Waltanater 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Happy 4th of July everyone! Looks like we got 4 AOI now, probably only 2 bear watching. Got a bad feeling about the one near the Leewards. Member Since: 16 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 918

2957. RitaEvac 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Looking like a large anticylonic high to set up over Bonnie

2958. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting RitaEvac: quit worrying about that 95L Pat, Bonnie maybe coming to visit you next week yes nightmares are so much better Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40511

2959. EricSFL 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
StSimonsIslandGAGuy nice pictures from the Antarctic cruise! Looks like a Princess ship, what was its name? I have been interested in that itinerary for a while now. Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

2960. futureguy 03:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear. Yes it seams with 4 tropical lows out there mother nature has decided to mop up mans negligence with the gulf oil geyser. Member Since: 4 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

2961. Patrap 03:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Me too. A lot to cover come this week seems Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111409

2962. RitaEvac 03:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Mother nature knows and knows what's best. She realizes that the nit wits running on her surface have polluted her Gulf, and must send multiple cat 4s and 5s to clean up the mess

2963. centex 03:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The dry air is building around 95L, I don't see how anything can develop in that envirnoment. I thought it might have a chance earlier but only if dry moved out, it's not. Member Since: 10 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2964. BahaHurican 03:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
G'nite all. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

2966. hunkerdown 03:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Is that like kicking the soda machine? lol more like tapping on your fuel gauge... Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2967. txsweetpea 03:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Does anyone seem to think that 96L will develope? When will it actually get into the gulf? Member Since: 7 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546

2968. texascoastres 03:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
night all! check back at 3:30am when i get up for work! to much going on, but have to sleep! Member Since: 28 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

2969. OracleDeAtlantis 03:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting futureguy: Yes it seams with 4 tropical lows out there mother nature has decided to mop up mans negligence with the gulf oil geyser. What are the odds that this spill would be positioned where it is, when it is, at record level SST's, AND a La Nina? Member Since: 27 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

2970. FirstCoastMan 03:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L? Member Since: 7 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

2971. Bordonaro 03:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting FirstCoastMan: When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L? I thought tomorrow afternoon. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2972. EricSFL 03:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Star Princess. I believe that large cruise ships will not be going south of 60 S anymore. They had mentioned an upcoming ban starting in 2011, but haven't kept up with that. Glad you liked the pictures! Ok thanks. Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

2973. muddertracker 03:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The 00z TVCN puts 96'er smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast. The NHC used this model to track Alex, and they were right. Link Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

2975. StormFreakyisher 03:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Holy Crap!Man it's more like fireworks tropics wise. 4 areas to watch like its September! Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

2976. Bordonaro 03:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting txsweetpea: Does anyone seem to think that 96L will develope? When will it actually get into the gulf? Yes it appears it will be a TD tomorrow & at least a TS by TU as it moves into the GOM. Models seem to favor a TX or Mexico landfall, but alot can change. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2977. FirstCoastMan 03:57 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
thanks Bordonaro... Member Since: 7 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

2979. CybrTeddy 03:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting xcool: huhhhhhhhhhh Looks closed to me. Reminds me yet again of Alex. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

2980. EricSFL 03:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
By the time we're actually in September I think most of the basin might look like a Christmas tree full of colored circles. lol Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

2982. xcool 03:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
CybrTeddy .I THINK closed to Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2983. taco2me61 03:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
ok Keeper and Pat you too need not talk about that thing for next week.... We have Jimmy Buffet giving a concert and don't need that messed up.... Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

2984. will45 03:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting FirstCoastMan: When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L? 1:30 pm eastern time Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

2985. Bordonaro 04:00 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting FirstCoastMan: thanks Bordonaro... Going to be an exciting week. 96L should develop & the AOI near the Leeward Islands probably will develop over the next few days. 95L appears to be finished and the AOI near the Bahamas bears watching! Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2986. centex 04:00 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting FirstCoastMan: When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L? They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure. Member Since: 10 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

2987. hunkerdown 04:00 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting muddertracker: The 00z TVCN puts 96'er smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast. The NHC used this model to track Alex, and they were right. Link the TVCN is not a model, it is a consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (it replaced old CONU "model"). Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2988. DehSoBe 04:01 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
whats your take on the track on the wave near the leewards? Member Since: 14 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

2989. will45 04:01 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting centex: They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure. they are going tomorrow at 1:30 Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

2990. will45 04:02 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
edit today didnt knotice what time is is now Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

2991. OracleDeAtlantis 04:03 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MarineMeteorologist: Check out the pressure fall at 42056 Looks like the eye of the storm? Member Since: 27 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

2992. Hurricanes101 04:03 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting centex: They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure. how do you think the classify systems? they flew into 93L to determine it was TD 1, and they are flying into 96L tomorrow Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2993. Bordonaro 04:03 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting centex: They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure. Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 041445 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 05/1800Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 05/1500Z D. 19.5N 86.0W E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. SEF Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2994. OminousCloud 04:03 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
where exactly is this AOI near the bahamas ?? Member Since: 16 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 73

2995. scott39 04:03 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting taco2me61: ok Keeper and Pat you too need not talk about that thing for next week.... We have Jimmy Buffet giving a concert and don't need that messed up.... Taco :o) He cancelled at the opening of his new hotel in Orange beach, when alex was going to Mexico. It was a big disappointment. Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2996. mobilebayal 04:04 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting taco2me61: ok Keeper and Pat you too need not talk about that thing for next week.... We have Jimmy Buffet giving a concert and don't need that messed up.... Taco :o) Taco, do you have tickets? Member Since: 17 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1097

2997. EricSFL 04:04 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: EricSFL wait! Here you go! :) I appreciate it! Guess I might still have a chance. I took the ship on my avatar last December - beautiful ship, but boring itinerary. Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

2998. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:04 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting will45: they are going tomorrow at 1:30 542 NOUS42 KNHC 041445 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 05/1800Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 05/1500Z D. 19.5N 86.0W E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. SEF Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40511

2999. hunkerdown 04:05 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting OminousCloud: where exactly is this AOI near the bahamas ?? follow the yellow brick road...or make that the yellow circle, over the Bahamas. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

3001. will45 04:05 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 05/0600Z B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE C. 05/0445Z D. 28.5N 91.0W E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

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