A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2351. Drakoen
Buoy 42057 which is closer to 96L is reporting a pressure around 1012mb...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SiestaCpl:


That seems imminent ..good eyes if you ask me...


"eye eye"... said the little 'cane that could.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
The blog sure is picking up speed.
Well there are 4 circles out there, lol.
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2348. Patrap
Quoting RitaEvac:
Well Pat they better start getting BP outta there, cuz this one is gonna stir those waters up more than Alex did


BP can stay..if they want.


I could care less.

For all they spend on weather Contracts from Private Firms,,
They could most likely get 3-4 good bloggers here.
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Taz where do you live? its already sunday pm
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Quoting Levi32:


Alex? Lol.

It's the son of Alex.

Or actually maybe the daughter?
LOL, my bad.
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2345. Patrap
Quoting sarahjola:
looks very organized. is it a t.d already in your opinion? should we be worried about 96l in our part of the woods? tia:)


Im going to stay up on it this early week as it has potential to Impact someone as the Model runs show.

Prepare now and ones ahead of the rat race.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,
Alex was last week
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?



C
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2342. Dakster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,


Alex???
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2340. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alex moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,


Alex? Lol.

It's the son of Alex.

Or actually maybe the daughter?
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Well Pat they better start getting BP outta there, cuz this one is gonna stir those waters up more than Alex did
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think will have a TD by sunday PM?
I think we will see TD#2 after recon investigates.
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2337. JLPR2
Just came back and my jaw dropped, we got 4 circles o.O
That's impressive for early July!
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Quoting helove2trac:
well if it is the same setup as opal shouldnt it follow the same path?


the upper environment in relation to intensity should not be confused with the upper environment in relation to track.
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?

D) ?, about 15-18
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
The blog sure is picking up speed.
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dos any one think will have a TD by sunday PM?
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Quoting Patrap:
looks very organized. is it a t.d already in your opinion? should we be worried about 96l in our part of the woods? tia:)
Member Since: 10 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
2330. Patrap
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96L moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?
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Quoting Weather456:


What a drop

Any idea what is going on? A pressure drop of 0.06" in one hour? Could it be from 96L's outflow, creating the big line of showers/t-storms over the Yucatan Peninsula causing the pressure drop?
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Deepening is not a problem in 2010.
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when are the new update on wind speeds for 96L out may be will have 97L by then
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Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056
Very impressive.
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Station 42056

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 123 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.9 °F
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well if it is the same setup as opal shouldnt it follow the same path?
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2320. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats not good right ?


A pressure drop like that in the tropics is never good.
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2319. Patrap
The Alex comparison can drift away as this 96L is a much more organized system in this stage of its new Life.

Plus..the System will tend to make the Gom a lot further N thru the Yucatan proper
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2318. Levi32
Low-level steering:



Mid-level steering:

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Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin
19.874 N 85.059 W


Conditions at 42056 as of
(6:50 pm CDT)
2350 GMT on 07/04/2010:


Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 123 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.9 °F

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Well, if you go to the shear map (site) the 200mb flow on the map I posted would be a weak trof to the west of 96L, and a upper level anticyclone, albeit small, north of 96L...at around that time. The resulting flow would have the tendency to ventilate the area as it did Opal.


I see what your saying.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



thats not good right ?


Not good at all..
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SkyePony was laughing at the 4circles last night;
ie the 00Z CMC placed 4lows on those 4circles then moved them:
Circle1(95L)'s low dissipated after heading northwest into a western Louisiana landfall.
Circle3(Bahama)'s low dissipated before hitting Florida.
Circle2(96L)'s low went straight to CorpusChristi.
Circle4(LesserAntilles)'s low headed toward Georgia, then turned northeast just left of the Bahamas and was heading toward Massachusetts.
A 5th low began development at ~34W as a CapeVerde ITCZ wave then turned into a low as it headed west of WNW to the LesserAntilles. After passing through those islands, it was heading through the highTropicalCycloneHeatPotential zone south of Jamaica when the run stopped.

I wonder if NHC will continue to follow CMC's lead with a 5th circle soon.

Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Levi32:


Oh snap.



thats not good right ?
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2312. Dakster
Quoting helove2trac:
but opal didnt go to texas


True... Stormw was thinking of a setup like Opal. If it goes to Texas it could be like Ike...
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2311. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry pple, but every time I see that graphic again, I think "96L and the Yellows"... like a 50s doowop group.... lol

Good one, Baha!
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2310. Levi32
Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056


Oh snap.
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Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056


What a drop
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Why was that a surprise....NO surprise here?
The surprise is that it shouldn't of gotten a T1.0 in the first place, which it did get.
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2306. Patrap
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2305. Levi32
Quoting USSINS:


Happy 4th, Levi, but go ahead and hurry up and give us the 411 on 95L. Small system, building convection on the west side now. An overnight surprise maybe? What's your take?



I say it's a gonner. The heat buildup to its south and east is too much for it, and it's not big enough to compete. I don't think we need to worry about it anymore.
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Quoting helove2trac:
but opal didnt go to texas


yes, I know....not sure if he was referring to the same area or the same strength but different location.
Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2303. xcool
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting goalexgo:
95L is a joke. NHC really needs to stop pushing it.



noted
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2301. beell


NDBC 42056
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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