A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2201 - 2151

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2201. nash28
Yo Levi.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. It looks like things are really heating up out there.
Yeah we got 4 AOI's.
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I keep thinking of that Staples commercial of that guy saying "WOW! thats a low price!"

But him looking at the NHC page with 4 circles out there saying "WOW! thats another circle!"
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Fact time!

Alex so far has caused $1.152 billion in damage. This is about 12 times of all the damages totaled in 2009.



Yaaaw! Tiem to help Portlight and other charities!
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2197. Patrap
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Fact time!

Alex so far has caused $1.152 billion in damage. This is about 12 times of all the damages totaled in 2009.


Alex was that costly?

Just goes to show, it only takes one.
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2195. Levi32
Good evening all. It looks like things are really heating up out there.
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i dont no how many of you got me on Ignore but the ones that dos i this like too say sorry about be for i guss i did yet thing go out of hand so if any one see this am sorry
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Quoting Weather456:
This is why we need to watch the last three areas mentioned in tonights TWO. This chart has never failed me since it based on Coriolis, ssts, rh and wind shear.



Nice graphic.....
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Interesting fact...

Alex so far has caused $1.152 billion in damage. This is about 12 times of all the damages totaled in 2009.
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2190. Patrap
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting homelesswanderer:
4! My turn to say wow! Now here's another wow.

After 2 days of weather silence my locals speak up.

Ch 12 said 95l or 96l either could become Bonnie. 95l was going north into La. And he categorically said 96l could not get any closer to us, SE TX than Corpus.

Ch6 just said, And I'm not kidding.

"There's really nothing going on in the tropics. Spent 2 seconds on 95l. Then that's it.

OMG! THESE PEOPLE DRIVE ME NUTS!!!!

I'm sorry I had to get that off my chest.


LOL....I totally understand....Course channel 6 doesn't really say anything until they feel more certain of the situation.....BUT, with that said they could at least mention that it is possible if things at the moment may suggest it.
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2188. FLdewey
Masters is in an airport chuckling right now.
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2187. nash28
Ok...

StormW, 456, myself, Drak and Levi get the real "underwear relocaters."

Everyone else can fight for the rest of the scraps.

Kidding of course:-)
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This is why we need to watch the last three areas mentioned in tonights TWO. This chart has never failed me since it based on Coriolis, ssts, rh and wind shear.

Through 4 days, shaded areas favourable for cyclogenesis...GOM for 96L, W Carib for Antilles wave and the Bahamas.

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2184. JRRP
Quoting Claudette1234:
The Antillies wave 97L have shear at NW in the last map, so by the moment i dont see a rapid developed.

96L has much more future.

we don´t have 97L
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Good evening, 456! How are ya? I've noticed that the NHC is following 4 AIO, tonight. WOW, was July suppose to kick off this active? :(.
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there is no 97L yet
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4! My turn to say wow! Now here's another wow.

After 2 days of weather silence my locals speak up.

Ch 12 said 95l or 96l either could become Bonnie. 95l was going north into La. And he categorically said 96l could not get any closer to us, SE TX than Corpus.

Ch6 just said, And I'm not kidding.

"There's really nothing going on in the tropics. Spent 2 seconds on 95l. Then that's it.

OMG! THESE PEOPLE DRIVE ME NUTS!!!!

I'm sorry I had to get that off my chest.
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Quoting hydrus:
Other than a few areas of shear, Have you been able to find anything that could actually hinder tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin?


Some dry air in the tropical Atlantic

And all this cloud cover could have a negative feedback loop on SSTs

Both can be overcome though.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests.
Well that will be no fun for 456 or StormW because category 5's only last for a couple of hours, on the other hand invests take long to develop. That's why invests is where it's at. LOL.
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2178. USSINS
2141, 2152. Exactly. Who would write this system off? Not a good idea. Yes, small, but does anyone remember Humberto? Plus, this is in good proximity to shore, making reaction time short, and in near proximity to all the DWH traffic.

Buoy #42001 pressures are dropping.

Good posts, fellas. Thanks.
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2177. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


He's talking about how many TWO graphs have been posted, not how many AOIs are shaded.


Gotcha... I just misunderstood.

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Quoting Weather456:


Its July 4 and we have 4 circles so 4^4?


May the 4's be with you Young Skywalker.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



i may want too re move that
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Quoting DestinJeff:
we are up to 5 TWO graphs now

Six
National Hurricane CenterLOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not discounting the trough split over the Bahamas by any means. I think that she has a good chance of becoming Danielle.


Looks like a game of marbles in the Atlantic now.
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The Antillies wave 97L have shear at NW in the last map, so by the moment i dont see a rapid developed.

96L has much more future.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests.


Haha, good call, teddy.
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Quoting Dakster:
Patrap - Pass the BBQ sauce please...

And hold the rain...


....peeerfect day in LA....NOLA is dry and sunny...or it is just north of there where I sit..
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2168. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


We are.
Other than a few areas of shear, Have you been able to find anything that could actually hinder tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests.


LOL LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests.


But how do we know which invests become CAT5's and which don't? Hmmm.. lol
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Quoting Weather456:
We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol


LOL I think you are right! We'll take the...um..er...the easy ones!
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2164. pottery
Quoting Dakster:



???? I only see 4... Unless I am missing something.

He means it's been posted, 4 times....
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2161. Dakster
Patrap - Pass the BBQ sauce please...

And hold the rain...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
how many times do we need to post the twos


Its July 4 and we have 4 circles so 4^4?
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Quoting Dakster:



???? I only see 4... Unless I am missing something.


He's talking about how many TWO graphs have been posted, not how many AOIs are shaded.
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Quoting medicroc:

Interested in knowing also


I think he meant 5 TWO graphics were posted, not that there were 5 circles on the TWO
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Quoting Weather456:
We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol


Mets get Category 5s, newest blogger's get the invests.
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Quoting Weather456:
We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol
LOL! I call dibs on 96L's team.
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Quoting Patrap:
Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else.

Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge.

Without a doubt.

18Z 96L Run

Rib anyone,..mmmmm ?





...had Voodoo BBQ for lunch but another rib...sure!!
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Quoting Weather456:
We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol


StormW can lead one team and you can lead the other lol
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how many times do we need to post the twos
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2152. Patrap
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting tropicfreak:


5?? Whats the 5th one.

Interested in knowing also
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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