Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hmm...96 took a step backwards overnight.

Yes it did. NHC may lower the odds on it on the next TWO....oh my....

Same here Gambler. Breezy w/tstorms commin in off the gulf.

Quoting stormpetrol:

Good Morning, well we finally have a lull in the squalls and rain here, still a howling of the wind though.

How much rain have you gotten in the last 24 hours?

Was going to say hello to Pat but I noticed he was like one of my kids in the fact that I wake up and he was just sneaking off to bed. I'll tell ya what, if he didn't have so much work to do in the next few weeks we would have to ground him.

And 95 will prolly go back to 20 or better on the next TWO. My guess.

Gotta go make coffe. Ya'll wanna a cup?

Parallel GFS does put a low in the western GOM in 60 hours, but the way 96L looks, it needs an energy booster this morning...

Looks like HPC finally got the memo.....
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like HPC finally got the memo.....
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN.

LOL...we knew that years ago....classic.

It's almost to the point the only "believable" model I've seen is the ECMWF. Maybe the parallel GFS gets a thumbs up so far.

Already have mine but ty Doug

I could use some Jolt Cola this morning :) Very heavy rain down here on Dauphin Island, AL I hope to see a couple of waterspouts today.

Quoting IKE:


LOL...we knew that years ago....classic.

It's almost to the point the only "believable" model I've seen is the ECMWF. Maybe the parallel GFS gets a thumbs up so far.

Right now I would rate them neck and neck, will have to see how it plays out. If a TD develops from 96L, ECMWF. If not, parallel GFS.

Morning all.

[groan] Maybe I should have had the coffee first before the blog....

Will back read to see what's up with our cirles.....

00Z UKMET @ 60 hours looks similar to the 00Z ECMWF, with 96L...

Good Morning all. Raining again this AM along the west coast of Fla. 5-7 inches over the last four days.

I cant wait to see the visible of 95.
It has fought off shear and dry air ever since it exited the coast off of the panhandle the other day. Its trying to insulate itself sorta by not going real high in the atmosphere and keeping what little moisture there is right around the center. Pretty cool in my opinion.

Thunder close now. My home has been struck twice in the last 7 years.

Dang Doug, I'd move....LOL

Wow! DRAMATIC difference in appearance of the basin from 12 hours ago...



We got overnight rains again last night, but not as ridiculous with the thunderstorms as the previous couple of nights.

you guys are hard core..morning some good night to others..
I'm up checking on 97L which since it will be on top of me in 18 hours I think is prudent. Last night looked like it was getting organized but this morning has been sheared apart.. so back to bed for me.

95L just keeps going and going. 96L looks rather :( this morning....

96 will come roaring back. These systems pulse for a dew days before the feedback takesover and then they become self-sustaining.

Quoting msgambler:
Dang Doug, I'd move....LOL

I like my house!

I hear ya Doug

Quoting sailingallover:
you guys are hard core..morning some good night to others..
I'm up checking on 97L which since it will be on top of me in 18 hours I think is prudent. Last night looked like it was getting organized but this morning has been sheared apart.. so back to bed for me.

Are you onna boat in the ATL?

Going to follow the doc's lead, glad I put the hex on 96l before leaving.Our saving grace has been the difficulty of these systems to get vertically stacked. Lets hope that remains so. Cool Carolina mountains are calling me back againnnn.

I dont much care for that solution Ike.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn folks. 95 is still spinning like a top I see. That is an interesting little system.

Because of the way it spun up out of a stalled front right along the coast it was guaranteed to make a L
Because of the way it spun up out of stalled front it was guaranteed to have real problem developing into anything tropical in nature..
Again maybe a TD before it get sucked ashore in the next day or two.

I agree Doug. Way too close to home.

Good morning Ike. There is something forming in the MDR on the long range 06z GFS but is over 300 hours.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L


I'd bet you're right.

Quoting IKE:


LOL...we knew that years ago....classic.

It's almost to the point the only "believable" model I've seen is the ECMWF. Maybe the parallel GFS gets a thumbs up so far.

Yep, every 6 hours the NoGaps has a new solution as does the CMC and UKMET, GFS does too. It is like playing slots to see how many cyclones will you get each time. ECMWF is the only one that I would give more credibility to, since you do not see it develop 2-3 cyclones every run.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning Ike. There is something forming in the MDR on the long range 06z GFS but is over 300 hours.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L.

"Nothing to see here... move along, move along."

I have to admit I expected 97L to form from that Twave over the Antilles, but this a.m. it doesn't look like much at all. Most convection seems blown off to north; no cyclonic turning seen...

Quoting IKE:
6Z NOGAPS takes 96L into southern Mississippi and the wave in the eastern Caribbean toward Bermuda.

Good morning all.Just heard on my local news that we should watch 96l with interest this week.I hope he is not suggesting anything.

Quoting sporteguy03:

Yep, every 6 hours the NoGaps has a new solution as does the CMC and UKMET, GFS does too. It is like playing slots to see how many cyclones will you get each time. ECMWF is the only one that I would give more credibility to, since you do not see it develop 2-3 cyclones every run.

I'd agree with that.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning Ike. There is something forming in the MDR on the long range 06z GFS but is over 300 hours.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L.

That's why I didn't mention it...300 hours out.

I'd be tempted to say recon will be canceled to, at this point, unless it comes back within the next 2-4 hours.

Doesn't look likely when part of the convection is reaching Cuba now.

Morning granny.

Good morning msgambler.How are u today?

Save the gas money NHC.....

I'm fan-frikkin-tastic! How about you?

Doing well getting ready for work.Boy 96l is looking a bit ragged this AM:

Morning All, Hope everyone had a great 4th and got there fireworks in. Lots of rain here in wcfl this am but we will take it. just for july i have gotten 4.86 and still coming down.

Unless you want to fly in 95L! Which is unlikely.

Quoting mrsalagranny:
Doing well getting ready for work.Boy 96l is looking a bit ragged this AM:

Yes it is. Have a good day at work today. We are not allowed to work to work today. Have to wait till tomorrow.

Quoting IKE:
Unless you want to fly in 95L! Which is unlikely.

I agree Ike they should probably wait

Quoting IKE:
Save the gas money NHC.....

I think they fly based on BP's oil gusher.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think they fly based on BP's oil gusher.

Negative, nothing to do with one another.

According to the map IKE posted in comment 3364 there is a very deep depression heading my way!!

.Lucky you.I am off Tues and Wed,Thank goodness.I beleive 96l will gets its act back together today.hopefully not,

where do you live Sandi?

Well we have to do double runs Tue-Fri. But that's OK.. 275.00 a day.For about 3 hours of work.