Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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3452. weatherwart 12:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Good morning! Good morning. And thank you for answering my question yesterday about frontal systems and tropical/subtropical storms. I appreciate learning these things. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

3454. cg2916 12:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: You're welcome. My pleasure! Yeah, I've learned so much from this blog. Heck, I've learned more this year so far than the past two years combined! Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3455. Orcasystems 12:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3456. msgambler 12:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Good morning Orca. I see your still trying to point out that red box....LOL Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3457. Claudette1234 12:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
1008.4 mb 33kts Link Better than 2 AM EDT Member Since: 21 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549

3459. cg2916 12:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The blog's getting quiet... QUICK POLL! What was your favorite storm to track? Member Since: 21 décembre 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3460. Orcasystems 12:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msgambler: Good morning Orca. I see your still trying to point out that red box....LOL Ummmm no... they are just there now, I made them part of the backgrounds :) Yeah thats it :) Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3461. msgambler 12:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
That's your story, and your sticking to it. Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3462. LADobeLady 12:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting cg2916: The blog's getting quiet... QUICK POLL! What was your favorite storm to track? Anyone that doesn't hit ME Member Since: 29 juillet 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

3463. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
off to work i go check in at lunch Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40534

3464. blsealevel 12:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Station 42056 NDBC Location: 19.874N 85.059W Conditions as of: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 11:50:00 UTC Winds: S (170°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec Mean Wave Direction: ESE (116°) Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and rising Air Temperature: 77.7 F Dew Point: 75.9 F Water Temperature: 84.7 F Yucatan Basin Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3465. Hardcoreweather2010 12:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting cg2916: The blog's getting quiet... QUICK POLL! What was your favorite storm to track? Hurricane Elena and Tropical Storm Juan Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

3466. Orcasystems 12:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msgambler: That's your story, and your sticking to it. Actually I had them last year. I had a laptop crash..so I had to start all over with the overlays and feeds. Trust me.. at least once a month or so..someone will ask. usually good for a couple of hours of chat about them when things slow down. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3467. blsealevel 12:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Station SPLL1 LSU CSI Location: 28.867N 90.483W Conditions as of: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 11:00:00 UTC Winds: SSE (150°) at 22.9 kt gusting to 27.0 kt Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling Air Temperature: 77.2 F Water Temperature: 84.2 F Visibility: 6.5 nmi Tide: 3.01 ft (above MLLW) South Timbalier Buoy Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3468. AllStar17 12:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The blog is quieting down because the % was dropped by 10%? Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

3469. msgambler 12:57 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Actually I had them last year. I had a laptop crash..so I had to start all over with the overlays and feeds. Trust me.. at least once a month or so..someone will ask. usually good for a couple of hours of chat about them when things slow down. Well to be honest I would rather hear explainations on such things as the "Red Box" LOL...Then say: the polls, or all the arguing that goes on in here at times. Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3470. Dakster 12:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Blog is doing through DMIN at the moment.. The red square doesn't mean anything when the "storm" in it isn't a Major Hurricane... So we can say Hebert all day long. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

3471. blsealevel 12:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
To much excitment last night I guess. Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3472. earthlydragonfly 12:58 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Morning everyone Member Since: 1 juillet 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1649

3473. msgambler 12:59 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Morning earthly Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3474. AllStar17 13:00 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Starting to look a little better again: Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

3475. weatherwart 13:01 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting cg2916: The blog's getting quiet... QUICK POLL! What was your favorite storm to track? Pretty much all of the 2004 storms. Some of them were way too close for comfort. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

3476. largeeyes 13:01 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
So the disturbance north of the bahamas is kaput? Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

3477. Orcasystems 13:02 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msgambler: Well to be honest I would rather hear explainations on such things as the "Red Box" LOL...Then say: the polls, or all the arguing that goes on in here at times. I have to admit.. not big on polls. usually I don't see them, but there is always someone new making one. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3478. IKE 13:02 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Sorry this frame is an hour old...SSD needs an upgrade, but you can see the dry air that's gotten into 96L... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3479. Dakster 13:02 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
For the moment.. Subject to change at any time. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

3481. msgambler 13:05 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Morning Jeff, are you saying too many spirits were consumed? Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3482. Orcasystems 13:05 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Dakster: Blog is doing through DMIN at the moment.. The red square doesn't mean anything when the "storm" in it isn't a Major Hurricane... So we can say Hebert all day long. Looking at the models.. only the CMC has anything happening... and it takes 96 just to the west of NOLA. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3485. Dakster 13:08 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Looking at the models.. only the CMC has anything happening... and it takes 96 just to the west of NOLA. And not through SFL... Hopefully the CMC is wrong as I don't think NOLA needs another 'cane at the moment and I don't think it will help the oil gusher situation either. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4937

3486. CStaWeatherMan 13:08 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I think 96L has a life to it and will develop. When you look at it in at P451's post it is definitely going somewhere. I agree it will pass through the Yucatan channel but where it goes from there has a possibility for anywhere like txaq91met's post states. Also I have noticed after observing these entities for years that when systems are near in time to each other the area sets itself up in a certain pattern and this entity will probably follow Alex in path, somewhat. But will change course later when it gets in the Gulf. I agree with txaq91met's post that Wed or Thurs we will be in the know. Member Since: 28 juillet 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

3487. blsealevel 13:08 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Link Almost looks like 96L might take the same path as 95L if it is to get stronger in the next few days, unless trof is planning to do somthing drastic in next week. TX/LA border maybe? I think it goes a little bit to the east of models right now. Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3488. wunderkidcayman 13:09 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I still say thing are looking goods for our little friend 96L I say maybe we gwt a TD late tonight or tomrrow ya Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5426

3489. nrtiwlnvragn 13:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
AL 96 2010070512 BEST 0 211N 857W 25 1009 DB Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8930

3490. msgambler 13:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I have an interest. I'm in Mobile and have been here since 5am. But that is because the coffe pot starts at that time and, umm, can't leave it going without me Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3491. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 13:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
at 9 am here are my conditions sky:clear Temperature: 82.2�F Dewpoint: 72.7�F Humidity: 73 % Wind: W 9 mph Humidex: 100 Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40534

3492. Hardcoreweather2010 13:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
05/0545 UTC 27.7N 90.6W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic 05/0545 UTC 16.9N 83.4W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

3493. all4hurricanes 13:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I still say thing are looking goods for our little friend 96L I say maybe we gwt a TD late tonight or tomrrow ya Tomorrow, today it has to organize Member Since: 29 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2192

3494. whipster 13:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: INVEST 95L AND 96L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 8:10 A.M. JULY 05 2010 Thank you! Member Since: 14 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 422

3495. msgambler 13:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Well where ever it goes it needs to wait till next weekend to get there. I have alot of work for this week. Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

3496. LightningCharmer 13:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting CStaWeatherMan: I think 96L has a life to it and will develop. When you look at it in at P451's post it is definitely going somewhere. I agree it will pass through the Yucatan channel but where it goes from there has a possibility for anywhere like txaq91met's post states. Also I have noticed after observing these entities for years that when systems are near in time to each other the area sets itself up in a certain pattern and this entity will probably follow Alex in path, somewhat. But will change course later when it gets in the Gulf. I agree with txaq91met's post that Wed or Thurs we will be in the know. 'Good point. Have noticed the same thing regarding following a similar path when tropical disturbances or areas of interest are close in time. When conditions are favorable in an area, they seem to linger for while. Not really scientific but merely an observation. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

3497. weatherguy03 13:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Tropical Update w/ Video Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

3498. blsealevel 13:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Link Well now! Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3499. IKE 13:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: AL 96 2010070512 BEST 0 211N 857W 25 1009 DB What were the stats 6 hours ago? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3500. weatherman874 13:20 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
If you look at the latest vis loop of 95 L, look to the west of the main blob of convection and you can see an aparent naked swirl Member Since: 25 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250

3501. IKE 13:20 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
21.1N and 85.7W is at the Yucatan channel...WTH? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

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