Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3901. txag91met 17:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: 12Z HWRF at Galveston in 66hrs Nice tropical storm...that should bring us another 6-8" on top of the 6-12" we got last week. At least it is getting green around here again. ECMWF probably will be near Corpus. Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

3902. blsealevel 17:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Link Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

3904. Bordonaro 17:38 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
We are all patiently chomping on the bit, awaiting the NWC TWO at 2! Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3905. MiamiHurricanes09 17:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: We are all patiently chomping on the bit, awaiting the NHC TWO at 2! Likely to stay at 40% with 96L, if not decreased to 30%. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3906. dmdhdms 17:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: Just a Lil wind and rain ..most the heavy stuff East and some training may occur in areas there. Unless 95L Shifts gears.. But thats not likely. Taking the banding in So. MS at present. No wind to speak of, but it is definitely tropical. Apporx. .5 inches so far today at the north end of St. Louis Bay. Member Since: 7 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

3907. IKE 17:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The blob west/on the west coast of Florida looks like 96L,part 2..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

3908. Orcasystems 17:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

3909. txwxnut2 17:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I think the models are initializing too far north. The COC west of Belize appears to be the dominating COC at this point, in a similar area to where it "poofed" out last night. Hows that for a met term? LOL. Toured the beach here in CC today. Surf clearing up, but lots of weed, and still a foot high - pretty strong onshore flow still. On another note - why is NHC so reluctant to clasify 95 as a depression? It's small, but has definite closed circulation. 96 isn't there yet due to multiple COC's. Anyone care to chime in? Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 68

3910. OracleDeAtlantis 17:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Kristina40: Watching the loop for 95L he seems to be just sitting there trying to gain some strength. Poor little fella. Could have at least given him some kind of honorary name. I agree, it's a shame to see so much wasted spin. Member Since: 27 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

3911. belizeit 17:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Ascat caught 96l nicely and there is absolutly no cerculation Member Since: 10 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

3912. 900MB 17:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting SavannahStorm: Still Toasty- But Alex sure left a mark. East Coast waters awfully toasty! Add 3 days of 100 degree weather up here in NYC (currently 98), and we will have mid-August conditions if we don't already. Member Since: 11 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 615

3913. Patrap 17:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Special Marine Warning SPECIAL MARINE WARNING GMZ550-552-570-051915- /O.NEW.KLIX.MA.W.0283.100705T1720Z-100705T1915Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SPECIAL MARINE WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 1215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 TO 60 NM...OR ABOUT 31 NM SOUTH OF ISLE DERNIERS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS. * THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. && LAT...LON 2816 9101 2905 9097 2907 9010 2806 9029 2806 9053 TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 167DEG 8KT 2856 9068 Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3914. MiamiHurricanes09 17:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting txwxnut2: I think the models are initializing too far north. The COC west of Belize appears to be the dominating COC at this point, in a similar area to where it "poofed" out last night. Hows that for a met term? LOL. Toured the beach here in CC today. Surf clearing up, but lots of weed, and still a foot high - pretty strong onshore flow still. On another note - why is NHC so reluctant to clasify 95 as a depression? It's small, but has definite closed circulation. 96 isn't there yet due to multiple COC's. Anyone care to chime in? Take a look at satellite imagery and MIMIC-TPW. The current low level circulation is located around the northern tip of the Yucatan and not east of Belize. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3915. Bordonaro 17:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Alright, I guess the NHC is gonna make us wait!! Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3916. Drakoen 17:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting belizeit: Ascat caught 96l nicely and there is absolutly no cerculation 96L's circulation is over the western Yucatan Channel Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

3917. MiamiHurricanes09 17:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting belizeit: Ascat caught 96l nicely and there is absolutly no cerculation That ASCAT pass missed the circulation of 96L. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3918. Patrap 17:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
2 products issued by NWS for: Barataria LA Coastal Flood Watch COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1204 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 ...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COASTLINES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... ..THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS...AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTLINES TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-MSZ081-082-060115- /O.NEW.KLIX.CF.A.0003.100706T0500Z-100707T1800Z/ TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-LIVINGSTON-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST- ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES- UPPER ST. BERNARD-HARRISON-JACKSON- 1204 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS...AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS HIGHER WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM CDT. TIDES MAY REACH 2 TO LOCALLY 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES...BETWEEN ABOUT 8 AND 11 AM CDT...ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET...AND LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL VALUES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FLOODING MAY RESULT IN WATER COVERING ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING PROPERTY AROUND HIGH TIDE IN COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. && $$ 92/ALBRECHT Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3919. Patrap 17:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3921. MississippiWx 17:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The circulation with 96L is going to have to slow down or else it's not going to have any time to develop into anything more than a tropical depression. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8923

3923. IKE 17:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
48hour 12Z UKMET.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

3924. MiamiHurricanes09 17:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MississippiWx: The circulation with 96L is going to have to slow down or else it's not going to have any time to develop into anything more than a tropical depression. 96L's circulation has plenty of time over water to develop. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3926. WatchingThisOne 17:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Would anyone care to attempt a translation of: THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN" ? Confused by multiple competing vortices? What "spurious circulations of tropical origin"? I'm beginning to hate the word spurious. WTO Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

3927. tropicfreak 17:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 051747 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN 96L down to 30% Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

3928. Patrap 17:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: I should have stuck to my guns when I said yesterday that I thought 96L wouldn't develop much before late today. I let myself be stampeded into thinking a TD was imminent late last night. That and Patrap's snide remark that I always lowball invests. LOL. Not this time. Simon from American Idol. dont flatter yerself.. LOL Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3929. Hurricanes101 17:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
down to 2 circles, will be down to only 1 soon Ah yes let the season is a bust people come out lmao 96L chances down to 30% Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

3930. MiamiHurricanes09 17:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L - Near 0%. 96L - 30%. Tropical wave by the Antilles is no longer shaded. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3931. IKE 17:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

3932. tropicfreak 17:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: down to 2 circles, will be down to only 1 soon Ah yes let the season is a bust people come out lmao 96L chances down to 30% Yeah last night we had 4 circles. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

3933. HurricaneSwirl 17:50 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. 2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN NNNN Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

3935. Patrap 17:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L or the Spurious Low Jr..actually made my 4th with a Lil Dry Air and some Lower dewpoints . Was neato.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3936. MiamiHurricanes09 17:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I was expecting the circle to be slimmed down to the location of the low level circulation, but I guess they just went with the complete system. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3938. Bordonaro 17:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. 2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN NNNN Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

3939. HurricaneSwirl 17:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
A little while earlier after the 8AM I thought that it would continue to go down to 30% at 2PM, but would go back up to 40% at 8PM.. I'm right about the first half so far. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

3940. IKE 17:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Even if 96L does become a TD it looks like mainly a rainmaker for the western GOM. 4...circles......3.....2....soon-to-be...1..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

3941. Patrap 17:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Maybe we should pass out some Orange and green Highlighters for some. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3943. MississippiWx 17:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 96L's circulation has plenty of time over water to develop. Not really. In 72 hours, the NHC has it off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. It doesn't even have convection around it right now. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8923

3944. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 17:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: down to 2 circles, will be down to only 1 soon Ah yes let the season is a bust people come out lmao 96L chances down to 30% thats the way things work in the tropics as fast as they pop up they can poof out Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

3945. MiamiHurricanes09 17:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: A little while earlier after the 8AM I thought that it would continue to go down to 30% at 2PM, but would go back up to 40% at 8PM.. I'm right about the first half so far. The circulation is decoupled to the south and north, plus the showers and thunderstorms are disorganized. Unless 96L can fix all these things in the next 6 hours it will either likely stay at 30% or be decreased further to 20%. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3946. Patrap 17:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Keep following dem circles and one may run right off a cliff... "Splash" LOL Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113011

3948. MiamiHurricanes09 17:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MississippiWx: Not really. In 72 hours, the NHC has it off the coast of Texas and Louisiana. It doesn't even have convection around it right now. 3 days is plenty of time for organization as it will be under favorable conditions in the western GOM. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

3949. Hurricanes101 17:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: thats the way things work in the tropics as fast as they pop up they can poof out oh I know that, but you know it is inevitable that we will see people here soon saying this season was over-hyped. Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

3950. Hardcoreweather2010 17:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L is looking really good for a storm with 0% chance .LLC is trying to get under the convection with 29 mph + sustained winds. It could have easily been upgraded yesterday to a an std . Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

3951. HurricaneSwirl 17:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The circulation is decoupled to the south and north, plus the showers and thunderstorms are disorganized. Unless 96L can fix all these things in the next 6 hours it will either likely stay at 30% or be decreased further to 20%. Yeah, I understand that, but at 8AM I thought it would recover a little bit faster than it is now.. XD I still think it can pull itself together enough so that it won't go down to yellow. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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