Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010 | +2 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Yeah, I understand that, but at 8AM I thought it would recover a little bit faster than it is now.. XD I still think it can pull itself together enough so that it won't go down to yellow.
BP ?
so we could have had an std in the gulf?
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Whats so funny? He's correct. This thing is already causing flooding problems to our vulnerable coastline. Water levels are already 2ft above normal in Barataria Bay as a result of the 20 knots of southerly flow.
DMIN did not agree with 96L.
Its futile..
Trust me on this.
96L is disorganized right now, yes, but it is under moderate to strong shear, up to 40 kts. This could certainly be hampering development.
If this invest takes the track that's anticipated, shear will gradually decrease. Also, SSTs are plenty warm. Right now, I say that we could see TS Bonnie heading toward the LA/TX border by the end of the week.
Basically, I agree with the NHC.
As for 95L, nothing tropical or subtropical, but an entity nonetheless. It is something that will negatively impact those in its path.
True... LOL
gonna be a big year for hurricanes.
Not on the 12Z runs...either GFS.
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
After 48 hrs, reinforced by dry subsident northerly flow along the eastern edge of a building upper ridge over TX and the SE. S of the zonal jet across the middle of the country.
Put that together with strong low-level southeasterlies and there could even be some higher shear along the eastern edge of 96L.
Maybe.
It's not that bad right now. And looking back and reading my posts, if that includes me, I don't see how making a prediction that only makes a jump from 30-40% makes me impatient.. lol these things take a while to develop. No red until the thing stacks.. which could be late tomorrow or the morning after is my best guess.
We don't have time for patience!!!1
This blog just keeps getting spuriouser and spuriouser..
? Explain
Yup...
Has some work to do.. does look better than this morning though.
National Weather Service New Orleans la
108 PM CDT Monday Jul 5 2010
Update...
a coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal
sections of southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana late
tonight through midday Wednesday. Coastal flooding may occur as with
high astronomical tides combine with above normal water levels and
an increasing southeasterly wind flow. The threat for coastal
flooding is higher on Wednesday morning than on Tuesday morning.
&&
Aviation...
deep moisture is over the area with precipitatble
water levels over 2.25 inches. Bands of convection are wrapping northwest
across the area around a low pressure center about 40 nm south of
Houma. In the short term...18z tafs account for convection over southeast
Mississippi and areas generally north of I-12...a lull between the
convection to the north and new convection firing up near the
mouth of the Mississippi River that is wrapping to the northwest.
Expect convection to become more scattered after 03z. VFR to MVFR
conditions will dominate. In thunderstorms...visibilities will fall to
1-3sm in precipitation with ceilings falling to bkn012-015cb.
92/albrecht
&&
Marine...
a small non-tropical low sitting over the near shore waters south
of Morgan City will move northwest through this afternoon then
dissipate as it moves inland. SW winds 10-15 knots dominate today
with some gusts to 20-25 knots around thunderstorms.
Short term models forecast tightening pressure gradients later tonight
through early Wednesday with high pressure remaining over Georgia and an
inverted trough extending north from a tropical wave in the
northwest Caribbean moves northwest into the central Gulf. Small
craft advisories were issued for the coastal waters for tonight
through Wednesday as winds rise to around 20 knots. The 12z nam12 has
stronger winds Tuesday into early Wednesday with some 30-35 knots reaching the
Gulf waters east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The nam12
is also faster than the other short term guidance increasing winds
early this evening. The GFS and sref models also increase
winds...but only to around 20-25 knots and are about 12 hours slower
in the evolution of the wind field over the eastern have of the
coastal waters. At this point forecasts split the difference but
more in the direction of the GFS.
The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is less
organized that 24 hours ago. Current National Hurricane Center
forecasts indicate that the wave will work northwest into the
central Gulf by midday Wednesday then head toward the Upper Texas or
southwest Louisiana coast. There is about a 30 percent chance that
this system will develop into a tropical cyclone. Swell to the
northwest of this wave are expected to rise to about 8 feet north the
outer Gulf waters Wednesday. Conditions will improve from the east
Thursday and Friday.
92/albrecht
spu·ri·ous (spyr-s)
adj.
1. Lacking authenticity or validity in essence or origin; not genuine; false.
2. Of illegitimate birth.
3. Botany Similar in appearance but unlike in structure or function. Used of plant parts.
Well, isn't that special!!
LOL! FYI, I never said it was a Tropical Depression. So I don't know why you are trying to give me a lesson on Mid-Latitude Cyclones? All I was pointing out is the impacts of this low pressure system and that it should be given more notice.
Call it what you want but satellite clearly shows an independent low pressure system.
Obviously 95L is still attached to the frontal boundary.
Viewing: 3951 - 4001
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