Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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4151. PanhandleChuck 19:30 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Sure looks like 96L wants to shoot the channel Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

4152. asgolfr999 19:30 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: Someone chuck a Sonde up real high.. Just did....it's okay, it came back down again!!!!!!! Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

4154. TexasHurricane 19:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: 96L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop It does seem to be improving...I think?....anyone? Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4155. Patrap 19:31 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting extreme236: Convection with 95L looks pathetic. Cloudtops arent convection.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

4156. leo305 19:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting extreme236: Convection with 95L looks pathetic. convection with TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (55MPH) looks pathetic too http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/best_of_esl/IOTW/images/chris2.jpg Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

4158. PanhandleChuck 19:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting leo305: Jim Cantore is one of the best mets I've seen.. btw.. yea I agree with him.. He is one of the best "reporters" that I have ever seen Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

4159. MiamiHurricanes09 19:32 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
LOL. I can't believe that Jim Cantore actually said this on twitter: "Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD." No wonder he works at the weather channel. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4161. Patrap 19:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Radar shows Convection.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

4162. TexasHurricane 19:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting whs2012: Where's the COC? I don't even know what that is? So, it isn't improving?? Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4163. hatteraswind 19:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
wow,TPC has a new word for the model runs..."contaminated"...bets on this being a contaminated season?? Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

4164. Hurricanes101 19:33 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LOL. I can't believe that 95L actually said this on twitter: "Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD." No wonder he works at the weather channel. 95L said it? wow cool lol Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4165. TampaSpin 19:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Actully it appears 96L is really trying to pull things together now.......lets see if it continues.... Albit......FRont attached or not.....and i really don't see it attached now.....95L is a nice spinner...and does not look nor have the appearance of anything but, Tropical now...IMO! If anything it is now attached to a WARM FRONT not a COLD FRont now...... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4166. leo305 19:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: I don't even know what that is? So, it isn't improving?? center of circulation Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

4167. MiamiHurricanes09 19:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: 95L said it? wow cool lol LMAO! Read it again. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4168. DoubleAction 19:34 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I guess then 95L will go down as the little invest that couldn't. You can tell the poor little guy just wanted a name ... Member Since: 13 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 159

4170. asgolfr999 19:35 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Actully it appears 96L is really trying to pull things together now.......lets see if it continues.... Albit......FRont attached or not.....and i really don't see it attached now.....95L is a nice spinner...and does not look nor have the appearance of anything but, Tropical now...IMO! If anything it is now attached to a WARM FRONG not a COLD FRont now...... I'd kinda like to be attached to a warm frong right now. I think it would feel good Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

4172. extreme236 19:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LOL. I can't believe that 95L actually said this on twitter: "Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD." No wonder he works at the weather channel. I didn't know 95L could twitter LOL Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

4173. Hurricanes101 19:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
It does appear that 95L may not be attached to the front now, but it is too late IMO the system does not have enough organized convection and will not have enough time If 95L had done this 2 days ago, no question it would have gotten a name Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4174. TexasHurricane 19:36 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting leo305: center of circulation oh ok. I don't see that, but it looks like it is building more convection....so I think anyways... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4175. MiamiHurricanes09 19:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting extreme236: I didn't know 95L could twitter LOL LOL. Meant to say Jim Cantore. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4176. extreme236 19:37 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting leo305: convection with TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (55MPH) looks pathetic too http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/best_of_esl/IOTW/images/chris2.jpg Uh...might wanna go back and check your history. At that point in time he was a minimal tropical storm and on a downward trend. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

4179. StormSurgeon 19:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
...and when football season starts, we can send up tp Baton Rouge on saturday nights to cover the LSU games..... Oil Blimp Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

4180. USSINS 19:39 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
4165. TS, yeah, the HPC even had an "H" slapped over it last evening. It just needed a little more time over open water - a little too close to land and the dry air to contend. Still, quite impressive for a tiny system this close to shore. It's been interesting to watch.

4181. catastropheadjuster 19:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: Nope. Hello! Hello I'm from LA~ Lower Alabama sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

4182. Patrap 19:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I'll be getting into my Hurricane/Depression suit and Going Live with the 95L Landfall here this evening. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

4183. TampaSpin 19:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
If 96L gets it act together before moving into the GOM we will have a MAJOR HURRICANE COMING! And i believe 95L is at least a TD now.....at least so...... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4184. TexasHurricane 19:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting whs2012: Texas Hurricane Lol, COC is an abbreviation for Center of Circulation...and he is improving, but I just can't see the COC, maybe I'm blind? lol yeah...lol....I can't see the COC either... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments:** 2811

4185. leo305 19:40 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting extreme236: Uh...might wanna go back and check your history. At that point in time he was a minimal tropical storm and on a downward trend. exactly.. 55mph tropical storm at that moment in time Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

4186. MiamiHurricanes09 19:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I wish the cap locks key would have never been invented. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4187. SevereHurricane 19:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: It does appear that 95L may not be attached to the front now, but it is too late IMO the system does not have enough organized convection and will not have enough time If 95L had done this 2 days ago, no question it would have gotten a name Guess I'm not crazy then? lol Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

4188. Progster 19:41 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: I'll be getting into my Hurricane/Depression suit and Going Live with the 95L Landfall here this evening. LOL! Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

4189. Patrap 19:42 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

4190. Hurricanes101 19:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane: Guess I'm not crazy then? lol Doesn't matter much, 95L is making landfall now as we speak but it was never a TD because that front was always attached Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4191. angiest 19:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting extreme236: I didn't know 95L could twitter LOL eyjafjallajokull is on Facebook... Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

4192. TexasHurricane 19:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: If 96L gets it act together before moving into the GOM we will have a MAJOR HURRICANE COMING! And i believe 95L is at least a TD now.....at least so...... so confusing. It is going to form, it isn't going to form....it will go here. No, it will go there......aaawwwww......if only we had a crystal ball to see where the storms would go and how strong they will be. Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4193. TampaSpin 19:43 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: I'll be getting into my Hurricane/Depression suit and Going Live with the 95L Landfall here this evening. Your obviously getting a strong onshore Wind...much oil coming onshore that you know of. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4194. guygee 19:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting hatteraswind: wow,TPC has a new word for the model runs..."contaminated"...bets on this being a contaminated season?? Contaminated with Spurious Convective Feedback? Sure, it is built-in so count on it, plus plenty of the seriously unspurious convection. Member Since: 16 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

4196. Patrap 19:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Your obviously getting a strong onshore Wind...much oil coming onshore that you know of. Im sure its not helping in Barataria Bay and Points east. Lotsa Marsh there and 95 is all alone in SSTs that favor him for another few hours into Sunset Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

4197. Hardcoreweather2010 19:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
So Miami you are saying that the Fat Lady is warming up and about to sing to 95L Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

4198. USSINS 19:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
4198. Moving pretty fast in that last radar loop - high top must have caught a faster, southerly flow and decided to scoot on towards shore.

4200. Patrap 19:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
2 products issued by NWS for: 27NM SW Grand Isle LA Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1101 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040- 046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061615- LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND- COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA- TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE- EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES- ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON- ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL- PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- 1101 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF...HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORMS... A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. SEAS WILL PEAK 5 TO 8 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. .DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER THE PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464

4201. MiamiHurricanes09 19:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: So Miami you are saying that the Fat Lady is warming up and about to sing to 95L 95L's circulation will be coming onshore within the next hour or so, and no development will take place in that period of time. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

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