Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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4451. Patrap 21:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I sure hope its all we see anywhere this crazy season skyepony Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4452. pcbsmokey 21:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38

4453. JLPR2 21:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
LOL I was beaten to it XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

4454. homelesswanderer 21:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :) I dunno. I had an ant invasion in my kitchen. Had to kill em off as we were leaving from Gustav. He missed. Lol. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

4455. MiamiHurricanes09 21:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Oh Damn!! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4456. Patrap 21:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting pcbsmokey: A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. Teee,hee...hee,hee U betcha.. Lotas energy stored in the marsh tonight too. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4457. pcbsmokey 21:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Looks like Tim was on it ;) Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38

4458. leo305 21:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
new low forming under the convection east of the Yucatan based on VIS sat Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

4460. Levi32 21:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I need a tropical tidbit from Levi pronto. LOL. Lol. I'm afraid you will probably have to wait until tomorrow for one. Got too much school and work to handle today. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4461. Ossqss 21:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Hey, it works. I had ants move into my car before Gustav... But I really think it was just the saturated soil that made them do that. Oh my, I hope it was not Them darn fire ants! Had a bout with them last night :) Member Since: 12 juin 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

4462. Hurricanes101 21:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting JLPR2: A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. Did everyone see this? Well that certainly changes things, it did appear it was detaching from the front, but will it really have the time to develop now? Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4463. Tazmanian 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: 00 ABNT20 KNHC 052109 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. OMG Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

4464. MiamiHurricanes09 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
LOL, I will eat the biggest crow of life if 95L becomes Bonnie. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4465. Patrap 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4466. Levi32 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4467. MiamiHurricanes09 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Lol. I'm afraid you will probably have to wait until tomorrow for one. Got too much school and work to handle today. Don't worry about it. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4468. TampaSpin 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting pcbsmokey: A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. Yep and nothing about Sub-Tropical.... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4469. Samantha550 21:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Where are you located? SE TX Lumberton Member Since: 13 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 54

4470. TexasHurricane 21:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: I dunno. I had an ant invasion in my kitchen. Had to kill em off as we were leaving from Gustav. He missed. Lol. yeah, but I think we got the next one that came right?... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4471. MiamiHurricanes09 21:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Well that certainly changes things, it did appear it was detaching from the front, but will it really have the time to develop now? It is 50 miles off the shore apparently. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4473. Tazmanian 21:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
now i have gut Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

4474. JLPR2 21:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Well that certainly changes things, it did appear it was detaching from the front, but will it really have the time to develop now? yep, 95L might become TD2 before moving inland, its certainly looking healthy on visible Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

4475. Patrap 21:16 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: Teee,hee...hee,hee U betcha.. Lotas energy stored in the marsh tonight too. I was up at 4 am here yakking about ol' Chug a Lug 95L. Itza Trooper.. ..Hooper Drives the Boat!! Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4476. pcbsmokey 21:16 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
LOL @ teeheehee'ing, Pat. Once again, right up to the last minute, then...HELLLLLLLL-OOOOOOOOO. Guess those hour+ old METARs need to catch up :)) Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38

4478. MiamiHurricanes09 21:16 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting STORMTOPII: Hey Tampa, looks like the always right 13 year old was wrong. I wasn't the only one that was wrong. The NHC also said it was attached to a frontal boundary in the 18z surface analysis. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4479. Patrap 21:16 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4480. homelesswanderer 21:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: yeah, but I think we got the next one that came right?... Yeah 10 days later. Lol. Early warning? Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

4481. xcool 21:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
THAT SO SAD 95L BLOW OUT 96L Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

4482. TampaSpin 21:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting pcbsmokey: Looks like Tim was on it ;) Quoting STORMTOPII: Hey Tampa, looks like the always right 13 year old was wrong. Shoooo....no confrontation.....that would be very immature of me.....LOL Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4483. txsweetpea 21:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :) Maybe so...... Member Since: 7 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546

4484. LADobeLady 21:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :) Go back to 2005 and read Dr Masters blog days before Katrina hit. Long before we had satellites, radar, models, and computers we had mother nature and her signs. Member Since: 29 juillet 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

4485. Patrap 21:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4486. TexasHurricane 21:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Samantha550: SE TX Lumberton ok, mauriceville here... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

4487. ElConando 21:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
It is a small but strong puff ball. Lil Bonnie may come forth tonight! Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

4488. MiamiHurricanes09 21:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Shoooo....no confrontation.....that would be very immature of me.....LOL LOL, na. Props out to you on that one. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4489. Tazmanian 21:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L this may pull it off Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

4490. PensacolaBuoy 21:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I have to say that giving the Louisiana low a "near 0% chance" of developing when the 2:00 Outlook was posted this afternoon was reckless. The forecasters on duty this afternoon were out to lunch. That's the problem with a government holiday. The veterans take the day off and leave the B team in charge! Member Since: 28 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 348

4491. xcool 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L TD WT-- Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

4492. Hurricanes101 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting JLPR2: yep, 95L might become TD2 before moving inland, its certainly looking healthy on visible winds are TS force with it, could be Bonnie actually Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4493. Tazmanian 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
if 95L be comes the B storm then 96L will be come the C storm Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

4494. Chicklit 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
This is the current WV Image of 95L RainbowLoop Not seeing it. Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

4495. MississippiWx 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting MississippiWx: Forgetting technicalities, 95L is a tropical depression. It is having the same effects on South Louisiana, South Mississippi, L.A., and the Florida Panhandle that a real tropical depression would have. Who cares if it's classified or not? We are getting DRENCHED here in Hattiesburg from its rains. LOL...I just posted this and look what the NHC did. I guess they finally woke up... Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8623

4497. xcool 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 909W, 30, 1008, LO Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

4498. MiamiHurricanes09 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Since tropical storm force winds have been reported, if designated, 95L will likely go straight to tropical storm status. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4499. Patrap 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111607

4500. Levi32 21:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I dunno I mean....no deep convection and no reports of winds over 15 knots around the system. It's well-defined but I'm not sure if it qualifies as a TD yet. So the NHC suddenly doesn't want 12+ hours of deep convection before designation? Honestly... Regardless, one can see what home-grown mischief can do on frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico. Always gotta be on your toes. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4501. Ossqss 21:20 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Any links to any Anemometers South of Houma, La ? I bet there are some pretty good sustained winds in that neck of the woods..... Member Since: 12 juin 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

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