Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TN then people do not know the full criteria of a tropical system


I just had a downpour associated with the circulation offshore of Tampa with 40mph winds gusts and it felt tropical, should that area be named too?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
MH09, if they do upgrade it.. when would you expect a renumber?

I don't expect a renumber from 95L, but if we do get one it will be as it makes landfall.

Quoting Hurricanes101:
TN then people do not know the full criteria of a tropical system


I just had a downpour associated with the circulation offshore of Tampa with 40mph winds gusts and it felt tropical, should that area be named too?

NHC apparently thinks its tropical and has a chance, they bumped it up to Red alert. They even said '60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone'

Quoting Patrap:
95L feeder making it into Uptown NOLA..

4:30 pm CDT today

95L/Bonnie flexing her muscles....and she was written for dead yesterday. Props to you Pat for hanging in with her/it!

Quoting MississippiWx:


What? Might want to look again...Those coordinates are in the NW Caribbean...

oh..hehehe..been starring at that thing too long...thanx everyone...lol

look.... we always fail to realize that the guys at the nhc are the experts... we aren't. It doesn't look tropical to me either.. but the nhc thinks it is and they know more than me

Hmmm......HPC Surface Analysis



Edit: Link

Doesn't appear to be attached *shrugs*

but in the end I go with the NHC, but it is pretty obvious that at times they can be inconsistent

last year was a fantastic example; they named Grace out in the middle of nowhere but did not name either 90L or the system by NJ

NHC forgot to factor in the:

JMOV

95L/that woman...making landfall.....

Quoting MississippiWx:


We've had well over an inch here. We have had very TROPICAL type rains. Very heavy, with little lightning.

Over here in Mobile we only had one little shower very early this morning @ about 5 am. It's been cloudy all day off and on, but that's been it.

If they do upgrade it, they better do it within the hour. This is about to make landfall. 96L is also increasing in organization.

Link

Station SPLL1
LSU CSI
Location: 28.867N 90.483W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 05 Jul 2010 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 22.9 kt gusting to 26.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 75.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.0 F
Visibility: 6.5 nmi
Tide: 1.89 ft (above MLLW)


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spll1

Quoting Topography:
WOW, Pat, that was one hell of a feeder band from Bonnie. Do you have your sutters on, just in case? Since the NHc faiiled to nail this one. Isn't this gonna catch all of the NOLA citizens off guard? Not to mention the oil spill.

WaS just a feeder squall..

Dead calm now.

LOL

WOW! I left with a 0% and come back and find a 60%? WTH? I guess it detached itself from that ole' front.. Still probably won't get renumbered, convection is very weak.

Im so glad that most of you bloggers dont work at the NHC..those people know more about storms than some of you ever will and to criticize them for not naming 95L which is nothing but thunderstorms with gale winds..every storm that hits the GOM is NOT a tropical cyclone..

Quoting aquak9:


welcome to the addiction.

No cussin' no name-callin, no firearms.

No firearms?....Link

Quoting cajunkid:
Crow for many.

Never deal in absolutes.

You can say that again!!! Never discount those small compact systems....

(Jeff Master On Vacation)

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
This is one reason why you never turn your back on a system that is in your backyard and you will never hear me say a system is dead until the threat is 0 even if it's not upgraded the effects will still be the same.

Props to you great job sticking to what you thought!

Landfall in the marsh is Kinda like landfall in a warm tub with cane grass.

Just a lil fact,,..that aint a beach down there.

Looks like 95L and the front are still connected on the vorticity map...

Quoting ncstorm:
Im so glad that most of you bloggers dont work at the NHC..those people know more about storms than some of you ever will and to criticize them for not naming 95L which is nothing but thunderstorms with gale winds..every storm that hits the GOM is NOT a tropical cyclone..

lol I agree, I just don't even see what warrants the upgrade to 60%; it is making landfall NOW

96L organizing nicely.

hardcoreweather stuck to his guns as well.

Like a true trooper.

Mo props there fo sho..

.."Hooper drives the Boat"..!

Quoting pcbsmokey:
Hmmm......HPC Surface Analysis



Edit: Link

Doesn't appear to be attached *shrugs*

It is not any longer :o)

Quoting CybrTeddy:
If they do upgrade it, they better do it within the hour. This is about to make landfall. 96L is also increasing in organization.

Link

I agree that the public has a right to know.. especially if their cars are not parked on high ground or at least the Neutral Ground... ;)
but I also think some people might panic if they upgrade it... Katrina PTSD and all.. just MHO

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L organizing nicely.

I agree. That could be Bonnie or Colin (if 95L becomes Bonnie)

96L is still going to be the stronger of the 2 systems IMO


I am really not sure anymore whether 95L is attached to the front or not, the latest maps say it is, I can't tell

Either way the NHC I feel was right in the first place, this sudden jump to 60% is puzzling to me

How bout dem Saints, eh ?

Quoting whs2012:
After looking at Patraps video, you must be CRAZY if you don't think 95L is a TD...it might even be a TS!

I sent it to the NHC e-mail.

For reference .

LOL

Quoting Patrap:
95L feeder making it into Uptown NOLA..

4:30 pm CDT today

Very nice video there Pat!

Quoting whs2012:
After looking at Patraps video, you must be CRAZY if you don't think 95L is a TD...it might even be a TS!

funny cuz I just had a similar thunderstorm come through my street here in St Pete in association with that spin off the coast of Tampa

Should that be named too?

I gave the surprise storm in the GOMEX last year (Claudette) to TampaSpin.

Gotta give 95L to Pat, he new that this had potential. I even wrote it off.

Quoting Topography:
That's one to know, Pat. Saty safe over tehre, plz. You know how Nature can be.

Hmmm.

Yes i guess 3 maps was wrong......LOOK at this Graphic......you can easily see the Front in question......if 95L is at the very end of the front and NO one cannot say that is not the case.....then at what point can 95L be detached.....i can happen very quickly as it shows in this graphic i do believe.....

zombie alert