Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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4751. hydrus 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Negative...this shows how the front comes across Florida and goes up in LA. Someone said 96L is becoming better organized. Where the organization? I cant find it. The Floater looks disorganized. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14310

4752. Hurricanes101 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Well, as I was saying yesterday, these small systems that form... well... on the end of a FRONT can ramp up rather quickly. Looks like some of the louisiana coast will be experiencing tropical storm Bonnie tonight. Told ya'll not to down-cast that system. It is not a TS or a TD and should not be one, it has not ever had enough organized convection to be classified and it is now making landfall The I told you so is way too early Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4754. JUSTCOASTING 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
So is 95l moving any oil inland ? Member Since: 15 août 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666

4755. MiamiHurricanes09 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Wow I come back to see that 95L has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm lol LOL, it is still attached to a warm front and lacks organization on satellite. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4756. Bradenton 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: Folks can go back to 3 am here and see some were yakking up 95L organization. But that may require effort, so I digress. Take the credit, Pat. You deserve it on this one. Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42

4757. traumaboyy 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: Folks can go back to 3 am here and see some were yakking up 95L organization. But that may require effort, so I digress. It was impressive at 3am....and we are headed to NOLA in a couple weeks if you need an extra Directv Dish!! Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179

4758. Levi32 22:10 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Ok...then where was the organized convection for the 12-24 hours the NHC requires? Exactly the inconsistency....where is that required criteria gone to all of the sudden? Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

4759. Patrap 22:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Well a Dog Walk is in order to watch the Low clouds swirls.. ..Ciao Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111599

4760. StormChaser81 22:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Wow I come back to see that 95L has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm lol Yup, caught me off guard. It's really getting its act together quickly. Member Since: 11 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

4761. msgambler 22:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Good evening Pat, water puppy, Orca, StormW, atmo, and all others I missed. Pat, is it safe for me to come in? Looks a few posts back and have to ponder the thought. Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

4762. MiamiHurricanes09 22:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting STORMTOPII: And satellite imagery along with surface observations clearly indicates that it isn't. Satellite imagery indicates that it is still attached and surface observations can't determine whether or not it is attached or not. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4763. TerraNova 22:11 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L is not a tropical cyclone. If they classify this as one, I'm sorry, but I've lost a bit more faith in the NHC's ability to forecast TC genesis. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

4764. Hurricanes101 22:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Ok guys how is this a TD or TS? Where is the "organized deep convection" that is needed for this to be classified? It is not there, period. Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4765. IKE 22:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

4766. Drakoen 22:12 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
It appears that northerly shear over 96L is lessing somewhat allowing for convection to slowly push northward. The 850mb vorticity is closer to the surface low which should aid in additional organization. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4767. TerraNova 22:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I don't understand why they have 95L as a 30 kt system when there's barely anything higher than 25 kts being observed anywhere... Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

4768. Orcasystems 22:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msgambler: Good evening Pat, water puppy, Orca, StormW, atmo, and all others I missed. Pat, is it safe for me to come in? Looks a few posts back and have to ponder the thought. Its always safe in here :) Thats why we have ignore buttons... that being said.. its getting humorous right about now :) Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

4769. MarineMeteorologist 22:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Gulf buoys Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 73

4770. aquak9 22:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Topography- just when I think, time and time again, you have finally ground my last nerve? You find another one to grind. I was in the mood to go butcher some zombies and here you are. Sweet-talkin' the BigDawgs ain't gonna do ya no good. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

4772. Patrap 22:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L was/iz interesting..but its no Shaker or weather maker like its Big Brother was 5 years ago this night. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111599

4773. Hardcoreweather2010 22:13 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
also what is up with the NHC saying it's 50 miles away when it is clearly making landfall now Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

4774. wunderkidcayman 22:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I say al hell is breaking loose 95L could become TS Bonnie and 96L which I still do not think that it is at those coordinates I think it is a bit to the SW near 18 83.4 or at 17 85 Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

4775. TerraNova 22:14 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

4776. keithneese 22:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting bappit: No, I don't think you know what you are talking about. And where, pray tell, did your meteorology degree come from? Did you enjoy the trip to the NHC conference?? Geez, have some respect. Member Since: 7 février 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 154

4777. TampaSpin 22:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
StormW i don't know this but, yes i do see the Warm front the maps show so not to disagree with the Warm front.....but, its not the Cold front that it once was.......does the Warm front not differ in a Cold Front attachment when the criteria for fronts are in place....Thanks! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

4778. PensacolaBuoy 22:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I see the low as being detached from the front... at least it is now. The frontal boundary maps are older than the 2:00 TWO (of 0% chance fame). Gotta question who's preparing the maps, too! Still looking for a closed circulation, though. Member Since: 28 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 348

4780. TropicalNonsense 22:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting washingaway: NHC Not Hardly Consistent The devil is always in the details! they do their best and i have a feeling they would be perfect like StormW if it was not for the politics involved. Member Since: 3 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524

4781. IKE 22:15 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Its always safe in here :) Thats why we have ignore buttons... that being said.. its getting humorous right about now :) It's humorous because half of the bloggers on here yesterday were RIP-ing it and those that weren't were asked/told...not to talk about it. Classic. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

4782. MiamiHurricanes09 22:16 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting whs2012: StormW, No, I know you know a lot more about storms than I do lol...but to me, the rating of a storm as a TD or TS shouldn't be "if it's attached to a frontal boundary or not", but "if it has a circulation, and the degree of impact it's going to bring to the area" (if it has TS force wind gusts, than it shouldn't just be thrown out the window). I'm sure your right about what your saying and the conference and all.But...Like example, don't you think a hurricane should have a category not just for strength but for size, and for barometric pressure? I went through Ike, and I can honestly say that it felt like a Cat 3..not a Cat 2. Idk. I'm a noob :D, but I think that this system should be given SOMETHING... Plus, I would have never said that to you. You're one of the best bloggers on here. I didn't even see your post until after I made mine. I think it's time for you to change your definition of a tropical cyclone. Here's the NHC definition for a tropical cyclone: A warm-core non-frontal* synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects). Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4784. Tazmanian 22:16 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
96L is right here AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB, Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

4786. traumaboyy 22:17 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Don't mess with the Coast Guard!! Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179

4787. Drakoen 22:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Not sure what the big arguement is about. 95L is not even a named storm right now. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4788. msmama51 22:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting aquak9: zombie alert Ok, first question...what's a zombie for this blog? Member Since: 4 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68

4789. hurricanehanna 22:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
rhut rho....backs out quietly Member Since: 5 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

4790. kmanislander 22:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I see the WU Home page now has 96L at 19 N 85.6 W. This is becoming a farce. I don't think there are any coordinates left in the NW Caribbean to place this at. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

4792. ncstorm 22:18 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting whs2012: StormW, No, I know you know a lot more about storms than I do lol...but to me, the rating of a storm as a TD or TS shouldn't be "if it's attached to a frontal boundary or not", but "if it has a circulation, and the degree of impact it's going to bring to the area" (if it has TS force wind gusts, than it shouldn't just be thrown out the window). I'm sure your right about what your saying and the conference and all.But...Like example, don't you think a hurricane should have a category not just for strength but for size, and for barometric pressure? I went through Ike, and I can honestly say that it felt like a Cat 3..not a Cat 2. Idk. I'm a noob :D, but I think that this system should be given SOMETHING... Plus, I would have never said that to you. You're one of the best bloggers on here. I didn't even see your post until after I made mine. It has been given something..its been name 95L..an invest..there is no consistency to label this a tropical storm according to the NHC..if they went around naming every storm according to this blog criteria we would be in the Z's by now.. Member Since:* 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8462

4793. TerraNova 22:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
The winds in that squall line are probably stronger than the storm itself. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

4794. Orcasystems 22:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: It's humorous because half of the bloggers on here yesterday were RIP-ing it and those that weren't were asked/told...not to talk about it. Classic. What is humorous is we have a featured blogger who is defending himself against at least two... I don't even know what to call them... other then that misspelt colour word.. Storm... you know better then to feed them :) Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

4795. GeoffreyWPB 22:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I say al hell is breaking loose 95L could become TS Bonnie and 96L which I still do not think that it is at those coordinates I think it is a bit to the SW near 18 83.4 or at 17 85 WKC...You think this could become a tropical storm? Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127

4796. StormChaser81 22:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: also what is up with the NHC saying it's 50 miles away when it is clearly making landfall now See the radar signature right south of the barrier island, thats the center of the storm. When they released that update it was a little further out. Plus island dont count as land. There talking about the coast line itself was 50 miles from the center. Member Since: 11 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

4798. muddertracker 22:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting hurricanehanna: rhut rho....backs out quietly Will you go back in for a scooby snack? Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

4799. Hurricanes101 22:19 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Not sure what the big arguement is about. 95L is not even a named storm right now. pretty simple, all started when the NHC upped the chances of development all of a sudden to 60%; then the few who were making the case for 95L to be upgraded all basically said "I told you so, I told you so" Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4800. aquak9 22:20 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting hurricanehanna: rhut rho....backs out quietly it's ok, hanna...I'll strap on the muzzle and behave. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

4801. superweatherman 22:20 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Can they name 96L at the 8 pm outlook even after it made land fall StormW? Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

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