Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A Tale of Two Invests

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 GMT le 04 juillet 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.

Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Categories: Hurricane

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4901. nrtiwlnvragn 22:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
21Z surface map from HPC. I guess at some point they decide when a low is no longer attached to a front, with 95L it was this afternoon. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8916

4902. HurricaneSwirl 22:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting xcool: hmmm I think that's the first time this year with two areas highlighted with possible TC formation on the TAFB map. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

4903. spathy 22:44 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Wow there seems to be some unusually high tension on here tonight. The NHC is full of humans! Humans have a lot of discussions. The world is not perfect and Humans are far from perfection. They do the best they can!(NHC) And The NHC does a pretty good job of saving lives. Any slack can be obtained here as long as we keep the speculation and bickering to a minimum! WU is a great place! I know the blog moves quickly this time of year. And we all want our posts to show up in a timely fashion. But lets just step back and try to think about if our posts are informative. Or are they continuing useless chatter? Some fun is allowed but not for long as the season ramps up. Stay safe and informed during the season that is now upon us. JMO :0) Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474

4904. LightningCharmer 22:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
So much for the theory that oil on the surface of the water would impede development of a tropical system. 95L seems to be doing quite well even in close proximity to land. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

4905. kmanislander 22:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
What's funny is that Wunderkidcayman that always maintained the "center" of 96L was very close to where it is now pretty much got run out of town for saying that. It can be a cruel world at times. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

4907. SHOREACRESTX 22:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Stormw What do you think the strength of 96L will be if impacts the Galveston area ? Member Since: 30 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

4908. Hurricanes101 22:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: What's funny is that Wunderkidcayman that always maintained the "center" of 96L was very close to where it is now pretty much got run out of town for saying that. It can be a cruel world at times. yup I agree, he seemed to be right about that one Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4909. Drakoen 22:45 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting TerraNova: Is that at the mid or lower level? Low level. Go to the CIMSS 96L page and then check vis 1km and check the surface, ship, and buoy observations. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4910. stormpetrol 22:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
If you look at the visible loop of 96L what I called "center" can clearly been seen at 18N/82.5W Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

4912. Hurricanes101 22:46 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: 21Z surface map from HPC. I guess at some point they decide when a low is no longer attached to a front, with 95L it was this afternoon. see now that is different lol Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4914. pcbsmokey 22:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Merida Mexico 5 PM (21) Jul 05 29.73 (1006) NNE 8 Campeche 6 PM (22) Jul 05 29.7 (1005) NNW 12 Chetumal 6 PM (22) Jul 05 29.67 (1004) Calm Cancun Internation Airport 5 PM (21) Jul 05 29.79 (1008) S 3 light rain Link Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38

4915. Drakoen 22:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L may be an Arthur type situation where it gets named as it moves on shore Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4916. Ossqss 22:47 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Interesting imagery, and slightly off topic, but its coming your way Tampabay :) Member Since: 12 juin 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

4917. kmanislander 22:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting btwntx08: guys tell ike im still sry about yesterday remember i was pissed there is no reason that he put me on ingore im not like that it just happens You and Forest Gump Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

4918. GeoffreyWPB 22:48 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
I think the NHC will bring back the yellow circle on the Antilles disturbance at 8:00 p.m. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

4919. hydrus 22:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Ossqss: Interesting imagery, and slightly off topic, but its coming your way Tampabay :) Kinda strange watching the thunderstorms move from south to north this time of year. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

4921. xcool 22:49 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
btwntx08 lmao Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

4923. atmoaggie 22:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: You and Forest Gump Life is like a bowl of gumbo at PaPa Sonnier's...never know what you'll find in there... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

4925. Patrap 22:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
So much for "Forget 95L" pfffth Im second guessing a decision I made 2 Mths ago..In a BIG way. How bout dat 96L though? LOL Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

4926. Hurricanes101 22:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Yeah, it is. However, we're still missing the organized deep convection for the 12-24 hour time frame required by the NHC. Agreed Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

4927. sporteguy03 22:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: What's funny is that Wunderkidcayman that always maintained the "center" of 96L was very close to where it is now pretty much got run out of town for saying that. It can be a cruel world at times. So true Kman, it is nice to hear diverse viewpoints like yours and other bloggers on here, many times these bloggers will see things otherwise overlooked. Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

4928. LightningCharmer 22:51 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting spathy: Wow there seems to be some unusually high tension on here tonight. The NHC is full of humans! Humans have a lot of discussions. The world is not perfect and Humans are far from perfection. They do the best they can!(NHC) And The NHC does a pretty good job of saving lives. Any slack can be obtained here as long as we keep the speculation and bickering to a minimum! WU is a great place! I know the blog moves quickly this time of year. And we all want our posts to show up in a timely fashion. But lets just step back and try to think about if our posts are informative. Or are they continuing useless chatter? Some fun is allowed but not for long as the season ramps up. Stay safe and informed during the season that is now upon us. JMO :0) I enjoy the debate. Call me crazy. I just don't enjoy when the discussion is disrespectful, threatening, or uses inappropriate language. Children and adults can learn quite a bit by arguing as long as they don't let their emotions and egos get in the way. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

4930. wunderkidcayman 22:52 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS INFO THAT YOU PROPOSE DRAK IS THAT THAT BOUY IS NOT WHERE THE SYSTEM IS THAT BOUYS #42057 LOCATION ARE AT 16.83N 81.501W WHICH MAKE MY POINT ABOUT THE LOCATION Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5381

4931. spathy 22:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting LightningCharmer: I enjoy the debate. Call me crazy. I just don't enjoy when the discussion is disrespectful, threatening, or uses inappropriate language. Children and adults can learn quite a bit by arguing as long as they don't let their emotions and egos get in the way. Bingo and thank you! Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474

4932. reedzone 22:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Wow, umm code red on 95L.. interesting, won't get classified but it reminds me of 90L last year in May. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

4933. msgambler 22:53 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Patrap: So much for "Forget 95L" pfffth Im second guessing a decision I made 2 Mths ago..In a BIG way. How bout dat 96L though? LOL We are still getting blasted for talking about 95L. It seems we can only talk about the systems they want to talk about . Member Since: 27 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120

4935. MississippiBoy 22:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Stormy is 96l going to Texas,your thoughts. Member Since: 6 avril 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 278

4936. xcool 22:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
btwntx08 i will. Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

4937. kmanislander 22:54 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS INFO THAT YOU PROPOSE DRAK IS THAT THAT BOUY IS NOT WHERE THE SYSTEM IS THAT BOUYS #42057 LOCATION ARE AT 16.83N 81.501W WHICH MAKE MY POINT ABOUT THE LOCATION Wow, I come out to bat for you then you hit me with the caps lock !!. Please leave the room and reenter LOL Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

4938. Patrap 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting msgambler: We are still getting blasted for talking about 95L. It seems we can only talk about the systems they want to talk about . Well I dont see a lot of post anymore after today that's for sure. Go fig ya. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

4939. CybrTeddy 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
95L made landfall already. NHC if they want to upgrade it will within 10-15 minutes or at 8 pm. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

4940. jaevortex 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting Ossqss: Interesting imagery, and slightly off topic, but its coming your way Tampabay :) Quoting kmanislander: Wow, I come out to bat for you then you hit me with the caps lock !!. Please leave the room and reenter LOL I think he got excited lmao

4941. xcool 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
MississippiBoy .no one knows Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

4942. SHOREACRESTX 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: I won't know until we see what it does in the next 24 hours or so...has to get organized and get a good surface circulation. Then I can re-analyze everything as far as shear, dry air, land interaction, etc. ty sir Member Since: 30 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

4943. cajunkid 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Member Since: 10 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

4944. Dakster 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Life's too short to take a blog that seriously... I am not saying we should disrespect each other -- on the contrary. It should be more civil. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4920

4945. floridaT 22:55 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
weather prediction is the art of an educated guess. the more educated you are the more of an artison you become. some on here are very educated such as stormw. we can dissagree with the NHC and debate their prediction because it is a "guess ". but they did have Alex dead on balls accurate. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 651

4946. PensacolaBuoy 22:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Tropical forecasts are very educated guesses, and I don't fault the NHC for missing one, but a "near 0%" chance is risky. Don't you think they should have given some chance for 95L to develop at 2:00? I think someone was overly confident in their opinion. They should leave some room for error unless they are absolutely certain IMO. Member Since: 28 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 348

4948. Patrap 22:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
..best to weigh anchor and get on the Boat.. .."Hooper drives da Boat"..!! Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

4949. Drakoen 22:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Wow, I come out to bat for you then you hit me with the caps lock !!. Please leave the room and reenter LOL lol Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

4950. kmanislander 22:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting jaevortex: I think he got excited lmao No kidding LOL Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

4951. hydrus 22:56 GMT le 05 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: It's open on the west side. Do you think there was ever a closed low with 95L? Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

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