Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Northeast Heatwave

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:08 GMT le 07 juillet 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

The most significant weather event in the US on July 6, 2010 didn't show up on any radar. The geostationary satellites didn't see it in their constant watch over the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, the tale of this event was told by the thermometers, because the heatwave in the Northeast was the most significant event for July 6, and it will likely be the most important weather story for July 7.

The heat wave covers Pennsylvania to Maine, but Tuesday's worst was centered over New York City. All six of the stations used by the New York NWS office for climate reports (Central Park, La Guardia, JFK, Islip, Bridgeport, and Newark) set or tied the daily high temperature record. Newark and Central Park both reached 103 degrees F.

How unusual is this heat wave?
Figures 1 and 2 show how warm the highs and lows are compared to 30 year averages. Unless you were at the Great Lakes, the Midwest and Northeast have highs well above normal, with 10-15+ degree F differences over the coastal cities of the Northeast. Using my gridded temperature data, the low for New York City was 6 degrees F above normal, which should happen 30% of the time (1.1 standard deviations away from normal). The high was roughly 20 degrees above normal, which should happen only 0.29% of the time (3.04 standard deviations away from normal). This is an unusually strong heat wave.

Why it's hot
Basically, it's because there is "the Bull of a high pressure ridge [over the NE US]" to quote the Mount Holly NWS office forecast discussion. The large ridge of high pressure is forcing air to slowly descend across the Northeast, preventing clouds from forming. Without no clouds and plenty of daylight, the Sun heats the ground which then heats the air.

When will it cool down?
That's an excellent question. A trough of low pressure off the coast will bring onshore winds to the Tri-State area and MA by Thursday, so they should cool down a bit. The southern part of the heat wave, DC and Philadelphia, will have to wait for a cold front to arrive from the Great Lakes sometime Saturday to get relief.

Population affected
As Figure 3 shows, heat advisories covered most of the urban areas of the northeastern US. By my calculations, over 32 million people were under a heat advisory. Different offices have different guidelines for heat advisories. The NWS office responsible for New York issues a heat advisory if the heat index will be above 95 deg. F for two or more days or if the index will be above 100 deg. F for any length of time.

Fig.1 Plot of the difference between maximum temperature (the high for the day) and average maximum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.2 Plot of the difference between minimum temperature (the low for the day) and average minimum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.3 Plot of the active heat advisories across the northeastern US for July 6.

Heatwave impacts
The predominant impact from heat waves is increased mortality. CDC estimates that over 8,000 people died during heat waves from 1979 to 2003. That's more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The elderly, sick, poor, and very young face the worst of the effects of the heat. Wikipedia has an interesting article describing the Chicago Heat Wave of 1995, a modern heat wave with a large number of fatalities due to the heat.

Heatwave coping strategies
The Centers for Disease Control have some tips for dealing with the heat. In summary, drink plenty of water, spend time in air-conditioned buildings, and wear light-colored clothing.

Is this heat wave due to global warming?
Ah, the $64,000 question. In the absence of detailed analysis, it's hard to specify the exact cause for this heat wave, from a meteorological or climatological view point. However, events like this are consistent with research showing that heat waves are more likely with
global warming. I like the metaphor of loaded dice, global warming is not specifically responsible for any heat wave, but it will make them happen more often.

Tropics
My thinking on Invest 96L is unchanged from this blog entry. In summary, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon to talk about the tropics.

Categories: Heat

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 701 - 751

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index

701. NttyGrtty 19:11 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting FLdewey: I would say the odds of an admin finding your post is small. Your best bet is to send them a message direct. Now that's funny! After 1 June, if you misstype the word cyclone on here, Admin knows about it. I've seen things removed in, literally, seconds. They've seen it and I'm sure, being the gentle people that they are, they will provide an answer. No agenda here, just curious...really Member Since: 11 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 664

702. extreme236 19:12 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneKyle: Up from 'TOO WEAK' If trends continue the next update should be 1.5-2.0. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

703. HurricaneKyle 19:13 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
12z ECMWF run. Cape Verde storm on the 15th. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

704. Levi32 19:13 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
12z ECMWF continuing to show us hints of mischief in the eastern Atlantic in 10 days. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

705. duajones78413 19:14 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Daveg: YES. Link we have had a sprinkle so far and radar shows it breaking up as it got to us. Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 276

706. Hurricanes101 19:14 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: 12Z ECMWF long range shows possible development in the CATL around the same time frame of the GFS Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

708. Levi32 19:14 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting NOLALawyer: I find your videos to be the best source of information on here. Well done. Well I don't know about the best....not by a long-shot, but thank you :) Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

709. Hurricanes101 19:15 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneKyle: 12z ECMWF run. Cape Verde storm on the 15th. yesterdays 12Z run; 216 hours from today would be next Friday not next Thursday Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

710. AllBoardedUp 19:15 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Post# 688, I saw it all first hand with Ike, and later with Katrina. I have relatives in Biloxi and D'Iberville and we were there visiting 2 months before Katrina (actually I was at a casino went Cindy was coming ashore) and had no idea this would be the last time to see the Mississippi coast in its pristine state. We loved driving the coast and looking at all the old houses. We waited 2 years before visiting again because I knew of all the rebuilding taking place. I was stunned to see all of the destruction first hand. Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

711. angiest 19:16 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp: Post #671, unfortunately, it's all about the money! Larger TV audience in New Orleans. Factor in the TV audience that has visited New Orleans on vacation over the past 50+ years and we are talking tens of million potential viewers. Not to mention, it's not everyday levees break in a heavy populated city. Not saying this right, but it's the reality. Money. Oh I understand that. Plus lots of celebrities live, or at least have homes, in New Orleans. Not to detract from the tragedy that happened in New Orleans, but that doesn't make what happened to coastal communities any less bad. I don't think a lot of people around here even realize just how bad the damage to Bolivar was. We all saw the huge granite boulders that used to lie at the base of the Sea Wall that were washed on to Sea Wall Blvd, but Bolivar got it much worse, and even the West end of Galveston (the Sea Wall protects less than a third of the Island) took a nasty blow from the weak side of Ike. The following picture is from Galveston State Park and shows the remains of a picnic table/shelter. This is several miles to the west of landfall. This structure was behind the dunes: Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

712. HurricaneKyle 19:16 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: yesterdays 12Z run EDIT: Your right, the ECMWF's just coming out. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

713. reedzone 19:17 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Guys, organization has gotten SLIGHTLY better, not downcasting the thing, just not looking for a big problem at all, very confident this will end up being either an Invest at landfall, or a weak TS at the worst. Nothing major, you all need to stop hyping something that isn't going to be big lol. Also to note, the merging of the tropical wave north of the Caribbean and the NON-TROPICAL low should be watched for Hybrid/Subtropical development for the next few days as it slowly drifts near the coastline. I give it a 30% chance to get going and I give 96L a 30% to develop into a TD beofre landfall. It's reasonable to me. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

714. Hurricanes101 19:17 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
192 hours, next Thursday Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

715. Levi32 19:17 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneKyle: No its not, look at the date at 0 hr. 7/7. It may have updated the first few days but the 192, 216, and 240 frames haven't updated from yesterday's run yet. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

716. drj10526 19:18 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
man it is hot for up here. Todays better than yesterday. right now its 97.8 and 34% humidity. We really lucked out having humidity levels so low. Any hotter and it starts getting dangerous, we are not used to such a prolonged heat wave. Member Since: 28 février 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 337

717. homelesswanderer 19:19 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting angiest: People living south of New Orleans, as well as coastal Mississippi and Alabama were also neglected by the media. Yeah we are used to that in Texas. But I must say I was surprised when someone on this blog from Houston didn't know Rita hit Texas. Then another from Houston didn't know that Ike hit where Rita did. Lol. Our SE TX is not Houston. So I guess the coverage was bad. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

718. Hurricanes101 19:19 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting reedzone: Guys, organization has gotten SLIGHTLY better, not downcasting the thing, just not looking for a big problem at all, very confident this will end up being either an INvest at landfall, or a weak TS at the worst. Nothing major, you all need to stop hyping something that isn't going to be big lol. Also to note, the merging of the tropical wave north of the Caribbean and the NON-TROPICAL low should be watched for Hybrid/Subtropical development for the next few days as it slowly drifts near the coastline. I give it a 30% chance to get going and I give 96L a 30% to develop into a TD beofre landfall. It's reasonable to me. who is hyping? So it is ok for you to hang on to systems that have no shot at development, but it is hype if we are watching 96L for development? Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

720. Hurricanes101 19:20 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
216 hours, next Friday Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

721. IKE 19:20 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
I see the system at 240 hours out in the EATL on the 12Z ECMWF. I also see 96L pretty much gone by tomorrow at 12Z and another system heading for the Yucatan peninsula and Mexico. Looks like the USA is protected the next 10 days after 96L moves on. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

722. reedzone 19:21 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
One more thing to note on 96L, structure has improved, but it's not really impressive to me, I still see an elongated mess, so I am not looking just at the convection. 50% was a little over the top, but keeps it at a medium chance, which is also reasonable. I really need to see moe improvement on this invest before I change my mind. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

723. angiest 19:22 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting angiest: Oh I understand that. Plus lots of celebrities live, or at least have homes, in New Orleans. Not to detract from the tragedy that happened in New Orleans, but that doesn't make what happened to coastal communities any less bad. I don't think a lot of people around here even realize just how bad the damage to Bolivar was. We all saw the huge granite boulders that used to lie at the base of the Sea Wall that were washed on to Sea Wall Blvd, but Bolivar got it much worse, and even the West end of Galveston (the Sea Wall protects less than a third of the Island) took a nasty blow from the weak side of Ike. The following picture is from Galveston State Park and shows the remains of a picnic table/shelter. This is several miles to the west of landfall. This structure was behind the dunes: For those who might be interested in seeing the destruction and rebirth of Galveston State Park you can see it here: Link Link Link Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

724. AllBoardedUp 19:23 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
I hear you. I have relatives in Bolivar but most of their houses were underwater, though they were salvageable. Of course they were located downtown Bolivar (if there is such a place) and on higher land. Going up the coast wasn't a pretty site. Father-in-laws house in Galveston had 2.5 feet in it. Just got him back in 4 months ago. Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

726. sailingallover 19:23 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah that's why I said 2nd half of the month. I don't see anything developing out there during the next 8 days. Trade winds out there remained slower than normal on average in June, so the high isn't too awful strong. The GFS shows it weakening as it shifts west like you mentioned, so dust blown off by the trades shouldn't be an issue more than it normally is, and should be less of a problem than normal. Trades are not much weaker than normal and the main reason is the Lows along the ITCZ are weak. The Colombian Low has been MIA. The Shahara Low is solid and right on the coast.. Have to see what develops over the next couple weeks. I'm hoping the Dust stays since we are right on the path of everything that could develop in the Atlantic. The 1016 line has been zonal right across the MDR to the windward leeward islands..the TUTT has been pretty good about shearing everything once it gets here.. It's been a consistent pattern for a month now.. Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

727. angiest 19:24 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yeah we are used to that in Texas. But I must say I was surprised when someone on this blog from Houston didn't know Rita hit Texas. Then another from Houston didn't know that Ike hit where Rita did. Lol. Our SE TX is not Houston. So I guess the coverage was bad. You must be in deep SE Texas. :) Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

728. Daveg 19:24 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Definitely still a 'bit' messy, but some nice convection flaring up right over the center. Can't say 96L isn't trying. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426

729. pcbsmokey 19:24 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Look at what 95L did right before brushing the coast of LA.....it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see something similar with 96L although 96 is moving at a much fast clip than 95 was. Just musing...funny things happen at the gulf coast during the season. Ya just never know Member Since: 27 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38

730. 7544 19:24 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
anoother nice blow up at 23n-70 west this does have my attention now will 96l get some compitition from this to be 97l soon Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

731. HurricaneKyle 19:25 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: 216 hours, next Friday Interesting.. has been showing persistence too. Needs to be watched for development as CV season begins to kick into gear. ECMWF long range got 96L and Alex.. so we'll see what happens. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

732. AllBoardedUp 19:26 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting angiest: You must be in deep SE Texas. :) Where are you located? I'm in Hitchcock. Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

733. bohonkweatherman 19:26 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Ike are the models always correct? Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

734. TexasHurricane 19:26 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer: Yeah we are used to that in Texas. But I must say I was surprised when someone on this blog from Houston didn't know Rita hit Texas. Then another from Houston didn't know that Ike hit where Rita did. Lol. Our SE TX is not Houston. So I guess the coverage was bad. Hi Homeless... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

735. IKE 19:26 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
I also see the low off of the east coast on the 12Z ECMWF, but it looks like the moisture mostly stays offshore...like Bastardi was saying in his discussion this morning. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

736. msphar 19:27 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Glad to see someone else is watching the MDR. Keep up the reports - Sailingallover, I appreciate it. Member Since: 20 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

737. kelley9 19:27 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting NttyGrtty: ..and I'm not questioning any of the kudos toward portlight, I simply asked a simple question I wasn't either, It was simply my impression that it was started here, which as it turns out, they just have a hand in it. That doesn't mean this site doesn't want other charities out, they simply likely want to promote theirs first. If you want to promote a charity or anything raising money on this particular blog, it would probably be wise to ask admin first. There's no need to attack me, I was just trying to answer your question by explaining to you the origins/affiliations of Portlight, (even if my details were off and explained later) which is what you wanted, right? It's not under my control what others post. What do you want me to say? I'm sorry people like Portlight? I'm sorry Portlight is a great organization? I'm sorry that some people think Portlight might be better than your charity of choice? Would it make a difference on your choosing of organizations? I highly doubt it. If you don't like what the outcome may bring, don't post anything. That's usually my rule of thumb. Member Since: 24 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

738. angiest 19:27 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp: Where are you located? I'm in Hitchcock. Katy. Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

739. IKE 19:27 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Ike are the models always correct? No...but the ECMWF has done an excellent job this tropical season after it's problems with 90L. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

740. reedzone 19:28 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Daveg: Definitely still a 'bit' messy, but some nice convection flaring up right over the center. Can't say 96L isn't trying. Ok, I'm not saying this isn't trying, just not impressed with it yet. I need to see more organization on structure, convection seems to be organizing well right now. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

741. NOLALawyer 19:28 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Well I don't know about the best....not by a long-shot, but thank you :) Well, I understand them and you present them in a way that a lay person can grasp the concepts. That is why I find them very informative. Member Since: 3 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

742. homelesswanderer 19:28 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Hi Homeless... Hey Tex. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

743. Drakoen 19:29 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Nice circular closed low Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

744. Levi32 19:29 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting sailingallover: Trades are not much weaker than normal and the main reason is the Lows along the ITCZ are weak. The Colombian Low has been MIA. The Shahara Low is solid and right on the coast.. Have to see what develops over the next couple weeks. I'm hoping the Dust stays since we are right on the path of everything that could develop in the Atlantic. The 1016 line has been zonal right across the MDR to the windward leeward islands..the TUTT has been pretty good about shearing everything once it gets here.. It's been a consistent pattern for a month now.. Trade winds were below normal during June across most of the tropical Atlantic, which you can see below. Having the Columbian Heat Low absent is very good for tropical development. You don't want lower pressures across South America driving the ENE trades through the Caribbean and ruining surface convergence. High pressure over northern South America gives a westerly component to the winds and causes air to pile up in the Caribbean, promoting convergence, upward motion, and lower pressures. Also, look at where the pressure pattern was setting up all of June. Pressures have been lower than normal with an axis along 20N, a very prime pattern setting up an active hurricane season. The ITCZ low pressure belt is not weaker than normal. The players are setting up just as we were talking about this past winter. June 2010 Surface wind-speed anomalies: June 2010 surface pressure anomalies: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

745. AllBoardedUp 19:29 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting angiest: Katy. Do they play football in Katy? LOL Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

746. reedzone 19:29 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: I also see the low off of the east coast on the 12Z ECMWF, but it looks like the moisture mostly stays offshore...like Bastardi was saying in his discussion this morning. They are now calling it the "Reed Low" because I'm the only onw watching it on here lol. It does stand a chance for Subtropical development, only 20-30%, still a chance. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

747. Hurricanes101 19:30 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
considering all the rain Northern Mexico and Southern Texas received from Alex, even a TD or weak TS could be a bad thing there Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

748. KarenRei 19:30 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Daveg: Definitely still a 'bit' messy, but some nice convection flaring up right over the center. Can't say 96L isn't trying. Circulation is still elongated, but not as much as last night. Convection is near the peak of the circulation. Probably not too long until this is called as a TD -- 12-36h. It certainly could ramp up to TS strength before landfall, although it's far from a certainty. It's going to be a rain event no matter what. Member Since: 7 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 934

749. HurricaneKyle 19:30 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
ECMWF run is certainly interesting. Looks like 96L becomes a TD/weak TS at landfall (Bonnie), and develops a CV storm (Colin) all by next Friday. Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672

750. bohonkweatherman 19:31 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: No...but the ECMWF has done an excellent job this tropical season after it's problems with 90L. I only follow the models on this Blog, which is cool because someone else is doing the work for me and it is appreciated. Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

751. Unfriendly 19:31 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
suprised baltimore wasn't mentioned, I know some spots got up to 105 degrees there yesterday... official was 103, still a record. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287

Viewing: 701 - 751

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters