Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Northeast Heatwave

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:08 GMT le 07 juillet 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

The most significant weather event in the US on July 6, 2010 didn't show up on any radar. The geostationary satellites didn't see it in their constant watch over the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, the tale of this event was told by the thermometers, because the heatwave in the Northeast was the most significant event for July 6, and it will likely be the most important weather story for July 7.

The heat wave covers Pennsylvania to Maine, but Tuesday's worst was centered over New York City. All six of the stations used by the New York NWS office for climate reports (Central Park, La Guardia, JFK, Islip, Bridgeport, and Newark) set or tied the daily high temperature record. Newark and Central Park both reached 103 degrees F.

How unusual is this heat wave?
Figures 1 and 2 show how warm the highs and lows are compared to 30 year averages. Unless you were at the Great Lakes, the Midwest and Northeast have highs well above normal, with 10-15+ degree F differences over the coastal cities of the Northeast. Using my gridded temperature data, the low for New York City was 6 degrees F above normal, which should happen 30% of the time (1.1 standard deviations away from normal). The high was roughly 20 degrees above normal, which should happen only 0.29% of the time (3.04 standard deviations away from normal). This is an unusually strong heat wave.

Why it's hot
Basically, it's because there is "the Bull of a high pressure ridge [over the NE US]" to quote the Mount Holly NWS office forecast discussion. The large ridge of high pressure is forcing air to slowly descend across the Northeast, preventing clouds from forming. Without no clouds and plenty of daylight, the Sun heats the ground which then heats the air.

When will it cool down?
That's an excellent question. A trough of low pressure off the coast will bring onshore winds to the Tri-State area and MA by Thursday, so they should cool down a bit. The southern part of the heat wave, DC and Philadelphia, will have to wait for a cold front to arrive from the Great Lakes sometime Saturday to get relief.

Population affected
As Figure 3 shows, heat advisories covered most of the urban areas of the northeastern US. By my calculations, over 32 million people were under a heat advisory. Different offices have different guidelines for heat advisories. The NWS office responsible for New York issues a heat advisory if the heat index will be above 95 deg. F for two or more days or if the index will be above 100 deg. F for any length of time.

Fig.1 Plot of the difference between maximum temperature (the high for the day) and average maximum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.2 Plot of the difference between minimum temperature (the low for the day) and average minimum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.3 Plot of the active heat advisories across the northeastern US for July 6.

Heatwave impacts
The predominant impact from heat waves is increased mortality. CDC estimates that over 8,000 people died during heat waves from 1979 to 2003. That's more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The elderly, sick, poor, and very young face the worst of the effects of the heat. Wikipedia has an interesting article describing the Chicago Heat Wave of 1995, a modern heat wave with a large number of fatalities due to the heat.

Heatwave coping strategies
The Centers for Disease Control have some tips for dealing with the heat. In summary, drink plenty of water, spend time in air-conditioned buildings, and wear light-colored clothing.

Is this heat wave due to global warming?
Ah, the $64,000 question. In the absence of detailed analysis, it's hard to specify the exact cause for this heat wave, from a meteorological or climatological view point. However, events like this are consistent with research showing that heat waves are more likely with
global warming. I like the metaphor of loaded dice, global warming is not specifically responsible for any heat wave, but it will make them happen more often.

Tropics
My thinking on Invest 96L is unchanged from this blog entry. In summary, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon to talk about the tropics.

Categories: Heat

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1101. Inyo 21:37 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting LoneStarWeather: It wasn't taken out of context. I know what he meant but wishing any kind of storm on your own country is asinine at best. Wish it to go back to sea but don't wish it here. how do you know he doesn't live in Mexico? Maybe he isn't wishing a storm on his own country. Anyway, it is true that storms often kill more people in Mexico. I hope no hurricanes hit any populated areas at all, myself. Member Since: 3 septembre 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765

1103. calder 21:38 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting USSINS: Yeah, and as much as I travel, I don't often even have time to watch TV, much less find TWC or even listen to the right radio station. But, if there were some general TD classification in these situations, a more concerted effort would be made within the media to create a better awareness - no matter which station one might be watching or listening. What's the harm in the TD classification? Especially, when it could save lives? Enough. It is what it is. Doesn't mean anyone has to agree with me, or that the NHC will take a different perspective. I just think a little different perspective and a bit less stringency and disrespect for the value of life and property could be helpful. It's weather. It's not a finite science. It can be dangerous anytime, classified or not. But, certainly some general classification, imo, could be more helpful. The only headline that would be needed would be something along the lines of "Extremely dangerous rain event to occur in southern louisiana" Member Since: 26 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

1104. Hurricanes101 21:38 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Inyo: how do you know he doesn't live in Mexico? Maybe he isn't wishing a storm on his own country. Anyway, it is true that storms often kill more people in Mexico. I hope no hurricanes hit any populated areas at all, myself. and I bet if you asked that person they would much rather have a system go out to sea instead of hitting the US too. Just think there was way too much gray area there to warrant calling someone an idiot. Either way, probably went on way longer than it should, going to look at some things on 96L Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1105. MiamiHurricanes09 21:38 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Hey for those of you who love the ECMWF like me.....Accuweather Professional site is adding a host of new data to their ECMWF model page that you can't find anywhere else. The video on it is here. I'm happy!! Awesome! I purchased the Accuweather Professional a couple days ago, but have yet to use it. I'll make sure to check it out later this evening. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1106. Levi32 21:39 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Yeah...I saw that earlier and played around with the model...one of the best things they've done! Indeed! EDIT: Nevermind they do have the 12z run up...you just have to select it from the menu and ignore the "latest run is 00z July 7th" message. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1107. calder 21:41 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
oh and USSINS, i wasn't trying to be inflammatory at all, I just believe differently, no disrespect intended Member Since: 26 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

1109. USSINS 21:41 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting calder: The only headline that would be needed would be something along the lines of "Extremely dangerous rain event to occur in southern louisiana" Yeah, buddy. I'm sure that'd get a "concerted" effort to create awareness. Headline? Who buys a paper anymore?

1110. Hurricanes101 21:42 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Interesting, 18 hours we have possible TD 2 and the low off the NC coast looks to have intensified Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1111. USSINS 21:42 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting calder: oh and USSINS, i wasn't trying to be inflammatory at all, I just believe differently, no disrespect intended None taken. Feel the same way. We just disagree.

1112. 7544 21:42 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: ok nice found it I refreshed the page WTNT01 KNGU 072000 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072000Z JUL 10// RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.8N 93.6W TO 26.1N 98.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING. INCREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION AND LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 082000Z.// on other tropical notes we may get 97L 98L and 99L soon one being that non-tropical low near the E coast another being off the coast of Africa and the other that wave near 45W agree and the blob east of fla is just sitting there gaining conv . this could get taggged latter 97l first imo also now nootice the blow up just north of cuba and south of the bahamas getting convection there too . stay tuned Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

1113. Tazmanian 21:43 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
am going out like a bat an saying we may see 5 name storms in july with one un name storm Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111346

1114. IKE 21:43 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Operational GFS has 96L on land by hour 30... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1115. Levi32 21:44 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Alex's cool SST wake looks like it is playing a part in limiting 96L's convective development near the center: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1116. JamesGalloway 21:45 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Hey guys, is there site that stores old ASCAT maps? I can only find the current one. Member Since: 17 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

1117. Levi32 21:46 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting JamesGalloway: Hey guys, is there site that stores old ASCAT maps? I can only find the current one. Menu on top can take you to previous dates. ASCAT Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1118. JamesGalloway 21:47 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Menu on top can take you to previous dates. ASCAT Thanks. Does it only scan once a day? Member Since: 17 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

1119. Levi32 21:48 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting JamesGalloway: Thanks. Does it only scan once a day? 2 passes a day. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1120. Hurricanes101 21:52 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
42 hours, low off the NC coast Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1121. Hurricanes101 21:52 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
GFS degenerates the low after that though Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1122. IKE 21:53 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 320 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- A WEAK AREA OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN STALL OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1123. IKE 21:56 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
I'll go with 50% on 96L the next TWO....convection is waning.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1124. MiamiHurricanes09 21:57 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1125. Drakoen 21:57 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Hey for those of you who love the ECMWF like me.....Accuweather Professional site is adding a host of new data to their ECMWF model page that you can't find anywhere else. The video on it is here. I'm happy!! Very nice. I might join for that sole purpose. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1126. extreme236 21:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: I'll go with 50% on 96L the next TWO....convection is waning.... Diurnal effects most likely taking effect here, along with cooler SSTs from Alex. Structurally, it's becoming better organized. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1127. PensacolaDoug 21:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
I been a pro subscriber for 5 years at least. Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

1128. itrackstorms 21:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Member Since: 20 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

1129. MiamiHurricanes09 21:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: I'll go with 50% on 96L the next TWO....convection is waning.... Still doesn't give enough reason to keep it the same. An anticyclone seems to be re-establishing itself aloft, and ASCAT showed a closed, but broad circulation. Also CIMSS vorticity products show that 96L is trying to align vertically through the 850mb-500mb levels. From what I see, the NHC should take 96L to a 70% chance at 8PM. Anyways it's probably the cold SSTs left by Alex and DMIN what is warming cloud tops. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1130. leo305 21:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
convection is waning due to DMIN, and some dry air, BUT the surface circulation seems to be consolidating and organzing with the convection, as the entire thing pulls to the NW, DMAX should really help it turn into a TD and potentially a TS before it hits land Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

1131. CybrTeddy 22:00 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
NHC will go with 60 or 70% IMO. Convection waning means very little. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

1132. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:01 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Still doesn't give enough reason to keep it the same. An anticyclone seems to be re-establishing itself aloft, and ASCAT showed a closed, but broad circulation. Also CIMSS vorticity products show that 96L is trying to align vertically through the 850mb-500mb levels. From what I see, the NHC should take 96L to a 70% chance at 8PM. It depends on who does the Tropical Weather Outlook. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290

1133. MiamiHurricanes09 22:01 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: NHC will go with 60 or 70% IMO. Convection waning means very little. Especially since they know that the SSTs left by Alex are effecting convection. Also, DMIN is having its effect on 96L. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1134. MiamiHurricanes09 22:03 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: It depends on who does the Tropical Weather Outlook. That might vary the percentage by 10% or so but doesn't give reason to not take 96L to red. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1135. USSINS 22:04 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
It's funny, really, to me. Now, we're teetering on percentages for a TD. Just call it a TD and put out TD alerts and create some general awareness ahead of time. Is the NHC gonna bat percentage balls around to within a few miles of shore? I'm sorry, that's a complete lack of judgment and blatant disregard for public safety, imo. I think I've made myself abundantly clear on the subject, so, much to many's liking probably, I'll shut up now and let those that enjoy getting technical get with it.

1137. GeoffreyWPB 22:06 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
I’m not going to give a percentage, but I think they will raise 96L to code red., just to play it safe since they cancelled recon. And speaking of recon, won’t 96 pretty much be close to making landfall by the time they get out there tomorrow? Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

1138. extreme236 22:07 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting USSINS: It's funny, really, to me. Now, we're teetering on percentages for a TD. Just call it a TD and put out TD alerts and create some general awareness ahead of time. Is the NHC gonna bat percentage balls around to within a few miles of shore? I'm sorry, that's a complete lack of judgment and blatant disregard for public safety, imo. I think I've made myself abundantly clear on the subject, so, much to many's liking probably, I'll shut up now and let those that enjoy getting technical get with it. No you are wrong. We have criteria for a reason. So that way we don't go classifying storms that really aren't tropical cyclones. Also, classifying a system induces a level of increased panic in some cases that wouldn't really be warranted under a system that is not a cyclone. We can't go around naming random convective bursts with strong winds. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1139. scott39 22:08 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
How many waves have come off of Africa since June 1st? Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

1140. IKE 22:08 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: I%u2019m not going to give a percentage, but I think they will raise 96L to code red., just to play it safe since they cancelled recon. And speaking of recon, won%u2019t 96 pretty much be close to making landfall by the time they get out there tomorrow? First mission is tomorrow morning....A. 08/1200Z.......yeah, it could be approaching land by then. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1141. MiamiHurricanes09 22:09 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Recon to head out and investigate 96L tomorrow at around 18:00 UTC. IMO, this should be moved up considering the proximity to land. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 071600 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EDT WED 07 JULY 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-037 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 A. 08/1200Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 08/0945Z D. 25.5N 96.5W E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71 A. 08/1800,2100, 09/0000Z B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE C. 08/1530Z D. 26.0N 97.0W E. 08/1730Z TO 09/0000Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARKS: A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 07/1220Z. B. NOAA WILL CONDUCT RESEARCH MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA WITH THE G-IV TAKING OFF AT 07/1730Z AND A P-3, OPERATING AT 12,000 FT., TAKING OFF AT 07/2000Z AND AGAIN AT 08/0800Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. SEF Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1143. extreme236 22:10 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: First mission is tomorrow morning....A. 08/1200Z.......yeah, it could be approaching land by then. A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 07/1220Z. First recon flight into this system won't be until 18z, so it's very possible we may not get recon. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1144. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:10 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting scott39: How many waves have come off of Africa since June 1st? We lost count at 19 I think, and that was way back in Mid-June. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25290

1145. reedzone 22:10 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
96L still appears to be disorganized, little change in structure, I'd put odds at 50% for the next TWO. If it doesn't get going tonight, then it won't ever get going. I doubt this becomes "Bonnie", but a TD is possible tomorrow afternoon right before landfall in southern Texas. The NON-TROPICAL low (Reed Low) looks to be starting to gain some Subtropical Characteristics, love tracking these types of storms. I'm keeping chances at 30%. The difference between 90L and future 97L is not much in the way of dry air, has alot of moisture to spurt out the dry air. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

1146. extreme236 22:12 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting reedzone: 96L still appears to be disorganized, little change in structure, I'd put odds at 50% for the next TWO. If it doesn't get going tonight, then it won't ever get going. I doubt this becomes "Bonnie", but a TD is possible tomorrow afternoon right before landfall in southern Texas. The NON-TROPICAL low (Reed Low) looks to be starting to gain some Subtropical Characteristics, love tracking these types of storms. I'm keeping chances at 30%. The difference between 90L and future 97L is not much in the way of dry air, has alot of moisture to spurt out the dry air. I'm sorry, but clearly the cloud pattern is getting better organized. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1147. USSINS 22:13 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting extreme236: No you are wrong. We have criteria for a reason. So that way we don't go classifying storms that really aren't tropical cyclones. Also, classifying a system induces a level of increased panic in some cases that wouldn't really be warranted under a system that is not a cyclone. We can't go around naming random convective bursts with strong winds. Don't play that card with me, extreme. That's just "your" opinion, just like mine is an "opinion." And, LOL, I'm not talking about classifying farts in the wind. Parts of Mexico and TX, like LA just did, are about to get a heckuva lot more than "spurious" amounts of rain and wind. Yet, I'll bet you that there's a substantial percentage of people that haven't a clue what's about to come ashore. And, the NHC is teetering with percentages. It'd be funny if it weren't so ridiculous.

1149. cctxshirl 22:13 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Don't know what 96L is going to do, but it sure is nasty in CC TX this afternoon. They bay has some big rollers on it and the rains were coming down pretty hard in downtown CC. (I'm watching from my office window instead of working ;)) Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 316

1150. KoritheMan 22:13 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: We lost count at 19 I think, and that was way back in Mid-June. I like your avatar. "And THIS... is to go... even further BEYOND...!" That was such an epic scene. :D Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433

1151. Levi32 22:14 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: NHC will go with 60 or 70% IMO. Convection waning means very little. It will mean a lot of it becomes a trend that doesn't reverse. The cold wake of Alex is more of a limiting factor on convection that some think. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

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