Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CJC111:
Hi Storm, does the tropical funnle come with a small umbrella?

only if you spell it right lol, j/k


did we figure out when the next recon flight would be?

Over the past few hours, it seems that the structure is starting to improve fast.. Got my crow defrosting for tomorrow.

Hey StormW or Levi what are the latest coordinates? Thanks.

I have always wondered....

Does anyone (Pat, StormW) know why there is much much less electrical activity (thunder and lightning) associated with tropical systems than say your average summer storm??

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What percentage will the NHC give 96L of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours on the 8PM TWO?

The person that guesses correctly gets a cookie. Lol.

By the way I went with a 70% chance.

2%

Quoting reedzone:
Over the past few hours, it seems that the structure is starting to improve fast.. Got my crow defrosting for tomorrow.

Might wanna chuck it in the microwave in case it becomes Bonnie tonight lol jk, it wont.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


2%

That's the chance you'll get that cookie..

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's the chance you'll get that cookie..

LMAO

Quoting Hurricanes101:


only if you spell it right lol, j/k


did we figure out when the next recon flight would be?

Schedule fix 12Z (8 AM) tomorrow morning.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's the chance you'll get that cookie..

NICE!!! lol

New Lightning Tech Could Help Hurricane Tracking & Preparation
By Joe Pappalardo


October 1, 2009 12:00 AM

Tallying lightning strikes from thousands of miles away may be the key to measuring the strength of hurricanes before they get close to land. "There have been big advances in predicting where hurricanes will go," says Kirt Squires, the co-author of a recent paper studying lightning patterns in hurricanes. "But ways to determine how strong they will be are still lagging."
29diggsdigg

Currently, the only way to get real-time information on wind speed inside the eye wall is to send in an airplane. But stronger winds produce more lightning, so measuring the frequency of lightning is a good way to track the strength of a hurricane, Squires says. Very low frequency radio signatures of strikes can be picked up from thousands of miles away with commercially available detectors as those signals bounce between the ground and the ionosphere.

The reason high winds cause lightning has to do with the way ice and hail move inside the eye wall. As the frozen water particles rise and fall, they lose electrons, which collect at the bottom of a cloud, producing a negative charge that causes lightning. Squires and University of Hawaii researchers report similar patterns of lightning during the life cycles of recent hurricanes, forming a potential base line for a detector that can determine wind speed without the risk of hurricane flights.­­

After looking at the organization over the last hour, I'd say 60% for now.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


"The usually dry Santa Catarina river that runs through the centre of Monterrey turned into a raging torrent, flooding major highways and paralysing Mexico's third-biggest city."

the image in the link looks more like earthquake damage rather than hurricane.

Quoting TxMarc71:
I have always wondered....

Does anyone (Pat, StormW) know why there is much much less electrical activity (thunder and lightning) associated with tropical systems than say your average summer storm??

In short there is limited vertical exchange of air, water droplets, ice and water vapor in tropical systems which is necessary for lightning. I'm sure one of the experts here can elaborate.

Happy Birthday Ringo Starr

A Beatle turns 70.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's the chance you'll get that cookie..

What kind of cookies ?

Quoting TxMarc71:
I have always wondered....

Does anyone (Pat, StormW) know why there is much much less electrical activity (thunder and lightning) associated with tropical systems than say your average summer storm??

Lightning is caused by static charges being built up between two different kinds of ice -- graupel (ice pellets) and snow. This static transfer tends to build up differential charges between them, as sharp-pointed surfaces more readily give up electrons than smooth surfaces. The snow is blown aloft easier while the graupel tends to fall more readily, thus separating the charges. Lightning results.

Hurricanes, being warm-cored systems, produce very little ice, and thus have little charge separation,
and thus, lightning.

It's always sureal (neat in a way) that with tropical weather it can be raining as hard as it can possibly rain... with virtually no thunder and lightning..

Quoting bigdoge3:
Hey StormW or Levi what are the latest coordinates? Thanks.

Official 18z coordinates were 23.8N, 93.6W. On current satellite imagery I have it near 24N, 94.1W, but it is hard to get an exact fix due to all the cloud-cover.

Thanks Pat, Karen, Storm, and Charmer great info!!

Quoting Patrap:

New Lightning Tech Could Help Hurricane Tracking & Preparation
By Joe Pappalardo


October 1, 2009 12:00 AM

Tallying lightning strikes from thousands of miles away may be the key to measuring the strength of hurricanes before they get close to land. "There have been big advances in predicting where hurricanes will go," says Kirt Squires, the co-author of a recent paper studying lightning patterns in hurricanes. "But ways to determine how strong they will be are still lagging."
29diggsdigg

Currently, the only way to get real-time information on wind speed inside the eye wall is to send in an airplane. But stronger winds produce more lightning, so measuring the frequency of lightning is a good way to track the strength of a hurricane, Squires says. Very low frequency radio signatures of strikes can be picked up from thousands of miles away with commercially available detectors as those signals bounce between the ground and the ionosphere.

The reason high winds cause lightning has to do with the way ice and hail move inside the eye wall. As the frozen water particles rise and fall, they lose electrons, which collect at the bottom of a cloud, producing a negative charge that causes lightning. Squires and University of Hawaii researchers report similar patterns of lightning during the life cycles of recent hurricanes, forming a potential base line for a detector that can determine wind speed without the risk of hurricane flights.­­

VERY interesting article. Now has anyone tested it out to see?

RAW: NASA Hurricane Jimena Lightning

Courtesy NASA and accuweather.com

Convection with 96L is still being limited in intensity at least partially by Alex's cool SST wake, which is a big factor here.

Ut-oh...pine hole eye??? :)

Quoting StormW:


Because the process that causes lightning in a thunderstorm, is due to mostly the effect of vertical winds in the thunderstorm.

In a tropical cyclone, the winds are traveling mostly horizontal. Now, some very intense hurricanes have had lightning near the eyewall.

Here's a good article on it:

NASA

I think this may be the article StormW meant to link:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2006/hurricane_lightning.html

( his link went to his previous image... I have done that also)

Quoting Daveg:
Well it ain't purty... but it is starting to effect more and more of the gulf...

That it has. It prevented me from going offshore to work today. Im now in a holding pattern onshore waiting and watching.

Looks less organized than it was a couple of hours ago and not nearly the man that 95L was. I expect 96L to go poof overnight but the effects will still be the same for Texas and MX.

Quoting reedzone:
Over the past few hours, it seems that the structure is starting to improve fast.. Got my crow defrosting for tomorrow.

LMAO. Takes a real man to eat crow! Impressive.

Click FRONTS and MSLP

Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop

Nicely developed low pressure system is 96L.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Looks less organized than it was a couple of hours ago and not nearly the man that 95L was. I expect 96L to go poof overnight but the effects will still be the same for Texas and MX.

Then it is fair to state that you believe it will stay orange or go down to yellow at 8:00 p.m.?

Last call!

What percentage will the NHC give 96L of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours on the 8PM TWO?

The person that guesses correctly gets a cookie. Lol.

By the way I went with a 70% chance.

Everything will close at 7:30 PM EDT.

Quoting Drakoen:
Nicely developed low pressure system is 96L.

Very impressive on satellite.

96L will not develope. it is nothing more than a big ball of convection.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Last call!

What percentage will the NHC give 96L of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours on the 8PM TWO?

The person that guesses correctly gets a cookie. Lol.

By the way I went with a 70% chance.

70%.

I say 65% they have been conservative lately...IMO

I say the NHC gives it a 70% chance

Quoting TxMarc71:
Heavy topical rain here in Houston for the last couple hours..

almost no thunder and lightning.. very little wind .. just flat out heavy tropical rain

Really? Pearland here I have heard plenty of thunder..including now...but not while the rain is pouring...weird.

Stron

Quoting bakers:
96L will not develope. it is nothing more than a big ball of convection.

Yep. Nothing more than a big ball of warm-core convection with a surface circulation over tropical waters in low to moderate shear with increasingly sustained convection over its center and an anticyclone overhead. Who ever heard of something like that developing?

;)