Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Northeast Heatwave

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:08 GMT le 07 juillet 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

The most significant weather event in the US on July 6, 2010 didn't show up on any radar. The geostationary satellites didn't see it in their constant watch over the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, the tale of this event was told by the thermometers, because the heatwave in the Northeast was the most significant event for July 6, and it will likely be the most important weather story for July 7.

The heat wave covers Pennsylvania to Maine, but Tuesday's worst was centered over New York City. All six of the stations used by the New York NWS office for climate reports (Central Park, La Guardia, JFK, Islip, Bridgeport, and Newark) set or tied the daily high temperature record. Newark and Central Park both reached 103 degrees F.

How unusual is this heat wave?
Figures 1 and 2 show how warm the highs and lows are compared to 30 year averages. Unless you were at the Great Lakes, the Midwest and Northeast have highs well above normal, with 10-15+ degree F differences over the coastal cities of the Northeast. Using my gridded temperature data, the low for New York City was 6 degrees F above normal, which should happen 30% of the time (1.1 standard deviations away from normal). The high was roughly 20 degrees above normal, which should happen only 0.29% of the time (3.04 standard deviations away from normal). This is an unusually strong heat wave.

Why it's hot
Basically, it's because there is "the Bull of a high pressure ridge [over the NE US]" to quote the Mount Holly NWS office forecast discussion. The large ridge of high pressure is forcing air to slowly descend across the Northeast, preventing clouds from forming. Without no clouds and plenty of daylight, the Sun heats the ground which then heats the air.

When will it cool down?
That's an excellent question. A trough of low pressure off the coast will bring onshore winds to the Tri-State area and MA by Thursday, so they should cool down a bit. The southern part of the heat wave, DC and Philadelphia, will have to wait for a cold front to arrive from the Great Lakes sometime Saturday to get relief.

Population affected
As Figure 3 shows, heat advisories covered most of the urban areas of the northeastern US. By my calculations, over 32 million people were under a heat advisory. Different offices have different guidelines for heat advisories. The NWS office responsible for New York issues a heat advisory if the heat index will be above 95 deg. F for two or more days or if the index will be above 100 deg. F for any length of time.

Fig.1 Plot of the difference between maximum temperature (the high for the day) and average maximum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.2 Plot of the difference between minimum temperature (the low for the day) and average minimum temperature in degrees F for July 6.

Fig.3 Plot of the active heat advisories across the northeastern US for July 6.

Heatwave impacts
The predominant impact from heat waves is increased mortality. CDC estimates that over 8,000 people died during heat waves from 1979 to 2003. That's more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The elderly, sick, poor, and very young face the worst of the effects of the heat. Wikipedia has an interesting article describing the Chicago Heat Wave of 1995, a modern heat wave with a large number of fatalities due to the heat.

Heatwave coping strategies
The Centers for Disease Control have some tips for dealing with the heat. In summary, drink plenty of water, spend time in air-conditioned buildings, and wear light-colored clothing.

Is this heat wave due to global warming?
Ah, the $64,000 question. In the absence of detailed analysis, it's hard to specify the exact cause for this heat wave, from a meteorological or climatological view point. However, events like this are consistent with research showing that heat waves are more likely with
global warming. I like the metaphor of loaded dice, global warming is not specifically responsible for any heat wave, but it will make them happen more often.

Tropics
My thinking on Invest 96L is unchanged from this blog entry. In summary, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon to talk about the tropics.

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1451. CybrTeddy 23:58 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Its anarchy I swear! Expect advisories at 11 pm imo. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

1452. leo305 23:58 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Apparently the NHC is impressed. The only thing keeping this from being classified right now is the lack of deep convection, as cloud tops are rather shallow right now. As they mention, if the current rate of organization continues it should be a TD later tonight or tomorrow morning. yea, the surface circulation has improved rather quickly and dramaticly since this morning, when it had spins all over the place.. the convection may likely come later tonight, as the system reaches DMAX Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

1453. melwerle 23:58 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
That was definitely HUGE. Wow - that'll wake you up. So much for sitting around the house relaxing. Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

1454. medicroc 23:58 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting melwerle: Holy friggin earthquake!!! We just had a huge rumbler. You ok? Member Since: 14 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

1455. WatchingThisOne 23:58 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting WatchingThisOne: Prelim mag 5.9 * 22 km (13 miles) NNW (332°) from Borrego Springs, CA * 23 km (14 miles) SE (131°) from Anza, CA * 33 km (20 miles) NE (52°) from Lake Henshaw, CA * 45 km (28 miles) S (174°) from Palm Springs, CA * 94 km (58 miles) NE (41°) from San Diego, CA Depth 12km Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

1456. duajones78413 23:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Levi, does this change your thoughts on the possibility of this thing becomine a cane? Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 276

1458. IKE 23:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
Quoting CanesfanatUT: How much crow we grillin tonight?? LOL My grill is still warm from the NY strip I just ate...got 2 crows out of the freezer thawing out now. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1460. NRAamy 23:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
here, Dak! here! SoCal!!!! Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1461. CybrTeddy 23:59 GMT le 07 juillet 2010
We should see a renumber before too long. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

1462. txalwaysprepared 00:00 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
I tried to tell yall... LOL Whatever 96L becomes or doesn't become it has some punch. today at swim lessons a cell came in -- got black quickly... poured.. winds had chairs flying all around. There is even wind damage in Houston from the storms. Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1463. MiamiHurricanes09 00:00 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
The tone of speech in the 8PM TWO is very suggestive of an upgrade soon. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1464. HurricaneSwirl 00:00 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
WAIT A MINUTE guys.. Look at the TWO where 95L got that ridiculous bump Link Look at the team who wrote that outlook, and then look at the team who wrote the most recent outlook. LOL! I still think it should be red regardless though. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1465. WatchingThisOne 00:00 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting PtownBryan: Yall ok? Was it bad? Yeah just fine ... I'm about 50 miles SW of Palm Springs ... had some strong swaying here (grabbed onto my monitor to keep it from drifting off its perch) ... that's about it. Waiting for after shocks, hoping it's not a pre-quake :-) Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

1466. IKE 00:00 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Everybody OK in Cali? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1467. stormpetrol 00:00 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
DEfinitely TS Bonnie within the next 12 hours imo.Don't be so sure it doesn't make to minimal hurricane status either Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

1468. Drakoen 00:01 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Dropsonde information from the NOAA G-IV found a bunch of westerlies south of the system Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1469. MiamiHurricanes09 00:01 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: Dying convection NHC...R U kidding me? 80%! You are only looking at convection. There are a lot of things in favor of that percentage, and if the convection was good than 96L would be a TD. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1470. AustinTXWeather 00:01 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
NRArmy - where was the earthquake? Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241

1471. Hardcoreweather2010 00:01 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The same could have been said about 95L... Please stop with those type of comments unless you want to be banned. 95L looked 100X better than 96L has ever looked and I didn't know that you were a mod and I also didn't know that they allowed personal attacks on this board. 96L will make landfall tomorrow morning so it's time to focus on the next storm. Member Since: 24 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1472. txalwaysprepared 00:01 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: My grilled is still warm from the NY strip I just ate...got 2 crows out of the freezer thawing out now. Still love ya! ;) Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1473. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:01 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

1474. IKE 00:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: WAIT A MINUTE guys.. Look at the TWO where 95L got that ridiculous bump Link Look at the team who wrote that outlook, and then look at the team who wrote the most recent outlook. LOL! I still think it should be red regardless though. Good catch! The same ones! Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1475. HouGalv08 00:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting AustinTXWeather: @HouGalv08,are you anticipating ongoing showers there even if it makes landfall in Mexico? Per the NWS forecast discussion issued at 15:13 this afternoon, I'd imagine so--"HOWEVER IT WAS IN- TERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THESE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN FOR M0ST OF SE TX ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE FROM THAT WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE S/SW AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND." Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 313

1476. melwerle 00:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
we're all fine - just the whole house was MOVING. Was smart though - after the easter quake, I got that stuff to stick your knick knacks to whatever they're on. They don't shake off. That one even woke up the kids upstairs! Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

1477. TxMarc71 00:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting txalwaysprepared: I tried to tell yall... LOL Whatever 96L becomes or doesn't become it has some punch. today at swim lessons a cell came in -- got black quickly... poured.. winds had chairs flying all around. There is even wind damage in Houston from the storms. WIND DAMAGE IN HOUSTON TODAY??? CMON MAN GET REAL!! There hasnt even been a breeze here today... the awning in your pic collapsed because of the wieght of the rain water on top of it. It had nothing to do with the LACK of any wind here today...

1478. Hurricanes101 00:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: Good catch! The same ones! and?? Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1479. beell 00:02 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting Levi32: Apparently the NHC is impressed. The only thing keeping this from being classified right now is the lack of deep convection, as cloud tops are rather shallow right now. As they mention, if the current rate of organization continues it should be a TD later tonight or tomorrow morning. Here's your shallow convection. A morning sounding from Brownsville. Dry air is high enough (above 500mb) to allow modestly deep convection. 00Z soundings are not out yet but forecast soundings paint a much better picture in the hours ahead. Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12883

1480. HurricaneSwirl 00:03 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: Good catch! The same ones! Yup! From now on we know that the "FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI" is the less conservative team IMO. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1481. MiamiHurricanes09 00:03 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010: 95L looked 100X better than 96L has ever looked and I didn't know that you were a mod and I also didn't know that they allowed personal attacks on this board. 96L will make landfall tomorrow morning so it's time to focus on the next storm. I don't believe I stated a personal attack. And if 95L looked 100 times better than 96L apparently you aren't too familiar with the term "organization". Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1483. weathermancer 00:03 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
I'm out. Got the munchies for some crow. Member Since: 29 août 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

1484. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:03 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
5.9 Date-Time Wednesday, July 07, 2010 at 23:53:33 UTC Wednesday, July 07, 2010 at 04:53:33 PM at epicenter Location 33.417°N, 116.483°W Depth 11.7 km (7.3 miles) Region SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Distances 22 km (13 miles) NNW (332°) from Borrego Springs, CA 23 km (14 miles) SE (131°) from Anza, CA 33 km (20 miles) NE (52°) from Lake Henshaw, CA 41 km (25 miles) SW (215°) from Indio, CA 45 km (28 miles) S (174°) from Palm Springs, CA 94 km (58 miles) NE (41°) from San Diego, CA Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.6 km (0.4 miles) Parameters Nph=122, Dmin=10 km, Rmss=0.26 sec, Gp= 29°, M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=3 Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

1485. melwerle 00:03 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
NRA - where are you located? We're just a bit south of Sandy Eggo. Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

1487. IKE 00:03 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: and?? And? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1488. MiamiHurricanes09 00:04 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Yup! From now on we know that the "FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI" is the less conservative team IMO. Regardless of who wrote the TWO, "red" was expected by many. I also like Avila. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1489. CybrTeddy 00:04 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Last time we had 80% on TWO was Alex.. we saw an upgrade at 5 pm. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

1490. nrtiwlnvragn 00:04 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Maybe NHC is getting something like this in real time from the P3 3D Doppler Radar, This image is from this mornings mission. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8932

1491. Hurricanes101 00:05 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting IKE: And? highly doubt 1 has anything to do with the other if you actually look in depth at both systems you would see that in terms of tropical development, 96L is better organized than 95L was Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1493. Inactivity 00:05 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
I think we will wake up to TD2,this will most likely become a TS with 50 mph winds. Member Since: 23 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264

1494. WatchingThisOne 00:05 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quake downgraded to mag 5.4 Info on CA quake Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

1495. Dakster 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting NRAamy: here, Dak! here! SoCal!!!! You seem to be ok since you can still blog... Is everything ok? Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

1496. TexasHurricane 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Oh please! Give it a rest. 95L didn't have half the structure of this...totally different critter anyway...95 L was from a baroclinic process, this is pruely tropical. Hi storm, is 96L moving WNW or NW? Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1497. NRAamy 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
I'm in Southern Calif., Orange County....the whole court rocked and rolled.... Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1498. HurricaneSwirl 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Regardless of who wrote the TWO, "red" was expected by many. I also like Avila. I agree, it should have been red regardless, but it looks like this team is putting out higher percentages than we expect, just like some (kimberlain?) put out lower than we expect. Just something to throw out there! Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1499. MarineMeteorologist 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Navy Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 73

1500. Levi32 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting duajones78413: Levi, does this change your thoughts on the possibility of this thing becomine a cane? Nope. It won't. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1501. TxMarc71 00:06 GMT le 08 juillet 2010
Quoting Inactivity: I think we will wake up to TD2,this will most likely become a TS with 50 mph winds. Thats sounds about right.. based of the storms recent intensification

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