Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

When the energy comes in it is gonna be interesting. Luckily the low shear isn't being taken advantage of.

Quoting StormW:


Right...what special that year?

Hurricane Camille. Ugh.

Quoting StormW:


Only reason I feel more than 2004 and 2007, is we have warmer water for one, and not only the La Nina, but a cold PDO. All that cooler water in the EPAC, and the way the Atlantic Tripole is situated, I feel there is much more energy focused in the Atlantic than 2004/2007.

Earlier in the season I was expecting an early start in the MDR but now SST's are much closer to normal. With the A/B high being so persistent
and the dust blocking a lot of incoming sunlight I am starting to "hope" we may have a more normal season.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

The SE ridge is main reason systems have stayed to the south into MX/Yucatan.

Quoting StormW:


Right...what special that year?

Camille.

Quoting StormW:


Right...what special that year?

Considering the large amount of recurvatures I would think there was a negative NAO throughout the season.

Quoting StormW:


Besides her...think in terms of numbers.

It had 18 named storms as well, which is close to what this year is forecast to have (not to mentioned it had 12 hurricanes).

Quoting StormW:


Besides her...think in terms of numbers.

larger percentage of stronger storms that year

18 named storms, 12 hurricanes meaning 2/3 of the storms were hurricane strength

I think what you are getting at is we could see not just an active season, but stronger storms overall compared to normal

As I see it the Bermuda ridge will become more dominant AUG/SEP with a mean position in the Central Atlantic...which should steer more storms from Africa toward Eastern GOM/SE US and into the Mid Atlantic.

Quoting hurricane23:


Though those numbers are a bit on the high side of what i think we might see this season. The tropical atl looks fine for early july which is really when the sal tends to peak. I think that once this tightly wound -QBO/La Ni%uFFFDirculation starts to break down in the ASO period, the ridges will be free to propagate poleward with more trough activity in between. This will increase the probabilities of a US East Coast landfall, IMO, this year. I have been harping late September with friends, but this threat is virtually possible any month with anticyclones having the ability to break into the 50-60N belt. I figured later in SEP because that's when the -QBO should take a hit.

Adrian, what do you mean when you say the -QBO should take a hit?

I think the last week and a half of July is when things will really start to pop.

Why?

Every time I take my month-long vacations, the tropics explode. It happened in 2007, 2008, and in 2009 with Ana, Bill, and Claudette.

Quoting StormW:


I'm kinda partial to 1995 and 1998.

Me too. 1998 even has the correct name set... though I am not sold on similar tracks just yet.

Quoting StormW:


Besides her...think in terms of numbers.

Well let me think. In 1969 meteorologists were just beginning to understand tropical and subtropical cyclones. As a result of this a large amount of the 18 cyclones went unnamed. Is that it?

Quoting StormW:


1969 was an El Nino event.

thats true

You are all on a roll today. Great images and graphs posted and good information. Think the blog needs a little pat on the back today. Wish it were this way all the time.

Quoting sailingallover:

Earlier in the season I was expecting an early start in the MDR but now SST's are much closer to normal. With the A/B high being so persistent
and the dust blocking a lot of incoming sunlight I am starting to "hope" we may have a more normal season.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

Last I checked, the MDR was still around 1.5C above normal (which was yesterday). The Eastern Atlantic has weakened in terms of anomalies, but you can only have so much heat before the anomalies start dropping. The anomalies in the Caribbean have also recovered recently to 1-1.5C above normal.

It also important to keep in mind that 30 days is a very long time in attempting to forecast the probable atmospheric set up with regards to the upper level steering currents. Even then, it is still possible for an unforeseen trough to come along and steer a particular TC farther N and away from the U.S. Consequently, any respective track forecasts outside of 7-10 days carries a very large degree of possible error.

Quoting hurricane23:


Though those numbers are a bit on the high side of what i think we might see this season. The tropical atl looks fine for early july which is really when the sal tends to peak. I think that once this tightly wound -QBO/La Niña circulation starts to break down in the ASO period, the ridges will be free to propagate poleward with more trough activity in between. This will increase the probabilities of a US East Coast landfall, IMO, this year. I have been harping late September with friends, but this threat is virtually possible any month with anticyclones having the ability to break into the 50-60N belt. I figured later in SEP because that's when the -QBO should take a hit.

I can see the EC being a sitting duck with these strong HP's sending storms more W and troughs coming across weakening the ridges. Storms could get pulled up more N towards the EC. NC could be in for a rough season just like the GOM...especially the Outer Banks.

Quoting StormW:


Right...what special that year?

the second storm formed on august 11

Take it easy all.. I'm going to go do some work before I get shot for being a downcaster..
July 22-23..start of first MDR storm...
I think it will track north and re-curve though but that is based on sketchy analysis..

Quoting Drakoen:

This wave just has "the look."

Quoting GettySquare:
ouch, that's scary thinking there, adrian.

I'm waiting on that call from the CIA by the way. I can't wait to see what kind of information they've pulled up in regards to the investigation they're conducting. :)

I haven't really made a forecast, but 18-21 has been what I've been thinking. 16 at the lowest IMO and probably no higher than 23. But I wanna see how things evolve as we move into the beginning of August.

Quoting Drakoen:


Maybe. As waves try to develop better circualtion it is easier for them to pull in the dry air to the north which may be why there is a lack of model support for this wave.

Agreed. Dry air will be more of an issue than dust.

345. Nice comparisons, too. I forget the RAMSDIS site water vapors. Excellenct depictions for mid and upper-level moisture.

Just looking back and...

The GFS did pretty well with Bill last year.

FORECAST (162 hours):

VERIFICATION:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just looking back and...

The GFS did pretty well with Bill last year.

FORECAST (162 hours):

VERIFICATION:

Nice storm. Bill has just about 0 chance at making a run at the eastcoast.

ok kids, just like I said I was afraid of yesterday, that big band of rain to the west of ole Cape Cod is dissipating and going west and north of us. This s*cks! We need real rain. So flooding in one place and parching here. Perhaps the rain in the ocean will hit us, the area to our South and East which you can look at in the NorthEast radar, we can only hope. A repeat of last year, only worse.

GFS has always done much better with CV waves than systems that formed like TD2 and Alex. Bill and Bertha are examples of that.

Quoting StormW:


Yeah...kinda like an attitude.

Exactly! Let's hope the dust to the north will cure his attitude.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS has always done much better with CV waves than systems that formed like TD2 and Alex. Bill and Bertha are examples of that.

and Dean

Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS has always done much better with CV waves than systems that formed like TD2 and Alex. Bill and Bertha are examples of that.

Bill and Bertha were two beautiful storms.

Quoting hurricane23:
In general the ITCZ has been displaced more south than normal, (look at hemispheric WV imagery to see) Waves are forming around 5N to 8N which is not too uncommon but is very low latidunally.

Especially for this time of year. The wave prior to this came off at about 10-11N, which is more usual.