Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010 +4
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.
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801. leo305 23:17 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
that tropical low coming off africa looks almost as large as the entire South eastern U.S
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802. Drakoen 23:17 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
High amplitude wave.

Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
803. earthlydragonfly 23:18 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting aquak9:
My momma always said, "better a smarta$$, than a dumba$$..."


I think your mom and my mom know each other!
Member Since: 1 juillet 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1649
804. Bordonaro 23:18 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - At the "top of the world" what is the figure that is all blacked out represent. Almost looks like a fly got caught on the satelite camera lens...

It is not included in the satellite sweeps from 22,300 miles up. Funny they are hovering in a position right near the N Pole though.
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805. Dakster 23:19 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:

It is not included in the satellite sweeps from 22,300 miles up. Funny they are hovering in a position right near the N Pole though.


Thanks - I figured as much, but I wonder why? Don't need to track polar lows?
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806. nrtiwlnvragn 23:19 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Parallel GFS shows a nice system in the East Pacific from that wave that was north of Panama yesterday. Last high resolution time, though it develops the system well before this.


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807. Patrap 23:22 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    

Eliot Kamenitz, The Times-Picayune
A helicopter takes off from Lakefront Airport as Navy blimp MZ-3A comes in for a landing Thursday. The blimp will be used in spotting oil from the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.


Coast Guard trains spotters for Gulf oil blimp duty
Published: Saturday, July 10, 2010, 5:00 PM


The Coast Guard has begun training spotters to work aboard a slow-moving, 178-foot-long Navy blimp that will add another airborne tool to the search for petroleum slicks and distressed wildlife from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.


The Coast Guard's observers aboard the MZ-3A Airship, at least temporarily based at an airport near downtown Mobile, will help guide skimming vessels and wildlife rescuers responding to the massive crisis, officials said.


The all-white blimp, with a gondola that can carry as many as 10 people, cruises at a comparatively leisurely 55 mph at lower altitudes, and it can come to an almost complete stop if needed.

It's expected to be far more effective than the Coast Guard's HC-144 cargo airplane that often is used for Gulf flights. The plane has an average speed of 155 mph and flies at a minimum of 1,000 feet above the water, making it difficult to pinpoint oil or see animals on the surface of the water.

"This is another asset in the effort to respond to what is going on in the Gulf," said Duane DeBruyne, a spokesman for the spill response command in Mobile.

DeBruyne said Coast Guard members who will work on the airship must undergo a day of safety and observer training on the ground before beginning additional training in the air.

"They have to be qualified just to go up," he said. Training started Friday and was continuing Saturday.



Navy's MZ3A airship descends to land at New Orleans Lakefront Airport on Thursday to support the largest oil spill response in U.S. history.

Spotting oil from a blimp isn't as simple as it sounds: It can be difficult to distinguish between streamers of burnt-orange oil and masses of brown seaweed from the air, and the shadows of clouds sometime resemble dark patches of oil in the water. Also, dead or dying marine animals on the Gulf surface can appear as mere dots from aloft.

The airship, manufactured by Oregon-based American Blimp Corp., arrived in Mobile on Friday after a one-night layover in New Orleans. A crew from Integrated Systems Solutions Inc., the Maryland-based company that operates the blimp for the Navy, drove stakes into the ground around a truck that has a tall, red-and-white mast used for mooring the airship on the ground.

The blimp bobbed in the afternoon breeze before training flights began. DeBryune said it was unclear when the aircraft would begin operating over the Gulf.

The blimp can stay aloft and work for 12 hours at a time, far longer than airplanes or helicopters. The Coast Guard said it also is more economical because it can monitor a far larger area than conventional aircraft. Normally based in California, the blimp is being outfitted with additional sensing equipment and communications gear for its time in the Gulf.

Jay Reeves of The Associated Press wrote this report.
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808. mrsalagranny 23:22 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Good evening Levi,MH09.When is the high expected to lift over the Northern GOM?
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809. MiamiHurricanes09 23:24 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good evening Levi,MH09.When is the high expected to lift over the Northern GOM?
That ridge will likely be there for a long while.
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810. Dakster 23:24 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Patrap - Any word on when BP will be replacing the cap?

If oil flows unrestricted for too much longer, you won't need a blimp to find the oil slick. A lifeguard stand on the beach will do...
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811. JLPR2 23:26 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    


Big one
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812. thewindman 23:27 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
So far only 1 Named Storm. Pretty average season so far.
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813. Patrap 23:27 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
They are saying 4-7 days depending on How the Double helix Operation and other engineering efforts go.



All one has to do is go to the source for info on DWH.
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814. Bordonaro 23:28 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks - I figured as much, but I wonder why? Don't need to track polar lows?

Yes, especially in the winter months. I know the AK satellite loops only cover up to 72N latitude. I am not sure why since is over the Polar region they cannot get a regular snapshot.
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815. Dakster 23:29 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
They are saying 4-7 days depending on How the Double helix Operation and other engineering efforts go.



All one has to do is go to the source for info on DWH.


Thank You...
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816. Patrap 23:29 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
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817. mrsalagranny 23:29 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Thank you MH09.
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818. Drakoen 23:30 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Something I never realized when I was going through the forecasted total named storms for this year. The Glosea is forecasting for 20 named storms to occur between July through November... very interesting. I always thought it was from June through November.
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819. Patrap 23:30 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
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820. Levi32 23:31 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:
Something I never realized when I was going through the forecasted total named storms for this year. The Glosea is forecasting for 20 named storms to occur between July through November... very interesting. I always thought it was from June through November.


I didn't know that either. That's interesting.
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821. Dakster 23:32 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, especially in the winter months. I know the AK satellite loops only cover up to 72N latitude. I am not sure why since is over the Polar region they cannot get a regular snapshot.


Covers most of AK. I guess the folks at prudhoe bay are on their own fro anything coming at them from the North across the arctic ocean.
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822. Bordonaro 23:34 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting thewindman:
So far only 1 Named Storm. Pretty average season so far.

Not really. We had a very strong Cat 2, a Tropical Depression and several very healthy tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin. The 2009 Hurricane Season started in early Aug 09. So compared to last year, we've been pretty busy.

Remember, we have near ideal weather conditions this year for an extremely busy Atlantic Hurricane Season. Very warm water in the Main Development Region (MDR), very high TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) and low wind shear, in a neutral phase in the ENSO, which means we're in between the El Nino & La Nina cycle, all which is an ideal situation for a very busy season.
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823. Drakoen 23:34 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't know that either. That's interesting.


Yea I suppose it is entirely possibly granted the season kicks into high gear soon.
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824. MiamiHurricanes09 23:34 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Drakoen, have you ever planned to do a blog entry? I've been eager to read about your thoughts on current conditions, it sure promises to be interesting.
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825. Bordonaro 23:35 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


Covers most of AK. I guess the folks at prudhoe bay are on their own fro anything coming at them from the North across the arctic ocean.

Sad, but that appears to be true. Most Aleutian storms move in from the W or SW anyway.
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826. IKE 23:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
827. Tazmanian 23:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
ABNT20 KNHC 102334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312
828. Drakoen 23:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



I forecasted you would be the first one to post that lol.
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829. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:

Not really. We had a very strong Cat 2, a Tropical Depression and several very healthy tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin. The 2009 Hurricane Season started in early Aug 09. So compared to last year, we've been pretty busy.

Remember, we have near ideal weather conditions this year for an extremely busy Atlantic Hurricane Season. Very warm water in the Main Development Region (MDR), ver high TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) and low wind shear, in a neutral phase in the ENSO, which is an ideal situation for a very busy season.


We're in La Nina now.
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830. Levi32 23:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


Covers most of AK. I guess the folks at prudhoe bay are on their own fro anything coming at them from the North across the arctic ocean.


We have quite an array of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites at our disposal here in Alaska. It isn't a problem tracking polar lows.

Geostationary satellites can't see the pole because they are at a flat angle to them, like putting your eyes down to the edge of your desk and trying to see what what's on it. You can't. The large surface becomes a thin sliver that you can't see.

GOES-11 makes it up to 75N which covers Alaska just fine most of the time, unless something from the pole comes scooting down and then we supplement with polar-orbiting satellites. The polar-orbiting passes are also useful when higher resolution is required, since the GOES-satellite net decreases in resolution the higher up in latitude you go.
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831. IKE 23:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


I forecasted you would be the first one to post that lol.


Good...love putting it on here.
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832. Drakoen 23:37 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Drakoen, have you ever planned to do a blog entry? I've been eager to read about your thoughts on current conditions, it sure promises to be interesting.


Nope. I don't want to get into the gist of writing blogs and then having to maintain it once I start going for my degree.
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833. Hurricanes101 23:38 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
considering the wave has yet to be analyzed, not a shock that the TWO has nothing, no big deal really either
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834. Drakoen 23:38 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting IKE:


Good...love putting it on here.


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?
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835. Patrap 23:38 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
The July Lull...

Is fine with me.

We gotz to get that DWH plugged and under control.

Folk in 4 States are hurting bad.

And the wildlife is hurting really bad.
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836. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:39 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?


I know I sure do.
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837. MiamiHurricanes09 23:40 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


Nope. I don't want to get into the gist of writing blogs and then having to maintain it once I start going for my degree.
Oh I see. Hope all goes well when you go to FSU.
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838. Bordonaro 23:40 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We're in La Nina now.

Oops. Is it "official" from the National Climate Prediction Center yet?
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839. Bordonaro 23:42 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


We have quite an array of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites at our disposal here in Alaska. It isn't a problem tracking polar lows.

Geostationary satellites can't see the pole because they are at a flat angle to them, like putting your eyes down to the edge of your desk and trying to see what what's on it. You can't. The large surface becomes a thin sliver that you can't see.

GOES-11 makes it up to 75N which covers Alaska just fine most of the time, unless something from the pole comes scooting down and then we supplement with polar-orbiting satellites. The polar-orbiting passes are also useful when higher resolution is required, since the GOES-satellite net decreases in resolution the higher up in latitude you go.

Thank you Levi.
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840. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:42 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:

Oops. Is it "official" from the National Climate Prediction Center yet?


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842. wunderkidcayman 23:43 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning
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843. Dakster 23:44 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


We have quite an array of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites at our disposal here in Alaska. It isn't a problem tracking polar lows.

Geostationary satellites can't see the pole because they are at a flat angle to them, like putting your eyes down to the edge of your desk and trying to see what what's on it. You can't. The large surface becomes a thin sliver that you can't see.

GOES-11 makes it up to 75N which covers Alaska just fine most of the time, unless something from the pole comes scooting down and then we supplement with polar-orbiting satellites. The polar-orbiting passes are also useful when higher resolution is required, since the GOES-satellite net decreases in resolution the higher up in latitude you go.


That is nice to know and thanks for the reason behind the missing data too!
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844. MiamiHurricanes09 23:44 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?
I can guarantee you won't be saying that in September. :)
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845. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:45 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning


I doubt that...
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846. stormhank 23:45 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
evening....Does anyone have a link to african satellite? Thanks
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847. MiamiHurricanes09 23:45 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning
Lol, I'll be surprised if we even get shading tomorrow let alone orange. This area is yet to be analyzed as a tropical wave, and if I were the NHC I would wait a bit longer to see if the convection persists. IMO, no shading for at least another 24-30 hours.
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848. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:46 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


I can guarantee you won't be saying that in September. :)


lol, you make it sound like were going to get absolutely bombed.
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849. IKE 23:46 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?


I don't see anything...either by models...SAL....shear...whatever reason. I see what the GFS shows, but it has virtually no model support...no NHC support for now IF they're saying nothing for the next 48 hours.

I've read updates from Crown Weather...listened to Weatherguy03's thoughts...read Accuweather's thoughts.

Slow time in the ATL. Maybe they'll be something in 7-10 days.

I don't really care if it finishes with 1 for the season. I'm always rooting for a slow season. Glad it's slow now so they can cap the oil spill....get the relief wells finished and working.
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850. JLPR2 23:46 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning


We already passed D-min in that area
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851. Dakster 23:47 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
MH09 -

I agree, good looking systems exiting Africa has a tendency to fall apart once they completely hit "open water". Besides no landmass is at imminent threat, either.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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