Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010 +4
Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.
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851. Dakster 23:47 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
MH09 -

I agree, good looking systems exiting Africa has a tendency to fall apart once they completely hit "open water". Besides no landmass is at imminent threat, either.
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852. MiamiHurricanes09 23:47 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting stormhank:
evening....Does anyone have a link to african satellite? Thanks
Sat24
EUMETSAT Meteosat 0 degree
SSD Latest Satellite Imagery
Tropical RAMSDIS Online
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853. FLWeatherFreak91 23:48 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Drakoen, Otaku in training ;)
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854. RitaEvac 23:49 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
WOW!..... There was NO STORM!
855. IKE 23:50 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
The encouraging news if you want storms....climatology says you'll get them...or at least the odds are greater....



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856. StormGoddess 23:50 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting stormhank:
evening....Does anyone have a link to african satellite? Thanks

This is a cool Africa satellite link: Link
You guys have a good night.
Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569
857. RitaEvac 23:50 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
WOW!....I mind as well go back on Vacation!
858. Drakoen 23:51 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting IKE:


I don't see anything...either by models...SAL....shear...whatever reason. I see what the GFS shows, but it has virtually no model support...no NHC support for now IF they're saying nothing for the next 48 hours.

I've read updates from Crown Weather...listened to Weatherguy03's thoughts...read Accuweather's thoughts.

Slow time in the ATL. Maybe they'll be something in 7-10 days.

I don't really care if it finishes with 1 for the season. I'm always rooting for a slow season. Glad it's slow now so they can cap the oil spill....get the relief wells finished and working.


Oh? This blog would be pretty boring if we had slow seasons year to year. You'd have to refill your valium prescripitions constantly with the amount of off-topic posts...maybe add some aderol to the list.

I'm always rooting for a nice active season with lots of recurvatures.
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859. JRRP 23:51 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


I forecasted you would be the first one to post that lol.

jajajaja
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860. Drakoen 23:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Drakoen, Otaku in training ;)


Nope
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861. MiamiHurricanes09 23:54 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:
MH09 -

I agree, good looking systems exiting Africa has a tendency to fall apart once they completely hit "open water". Besides no landmass is at imminent threat, either.
Well it is over water right now and has been over water for quite some time now. Also, most new convection has been firing over water so I'm pretty sure that this wave won't be going "poof" until if and when it encounters unfavorable conditions. I just don't think we will see any shading for at least a day if continuous organization continues occurring.
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862. nrtiwlnvragn 23:56 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
All you get from the TWD

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N30W 5N41W 5N54W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 9N-12N.
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863. IKE 23:56 GMT le 10 juillet 2010    
Here's the Atlantic ocean on the new discussion....

"ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 29N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N60W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-65W AN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH 700 NM ENE OF BERMUDA AND THEN NARROWS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING."


1030 mb's is 30.42 inches. That's a strong high and it's suppose to get 4 mb's stronger over the next few days...according to the GFS parallel.
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864. MiamiHurricanes09 00:00 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Convection keeps firing left and right over land to the east of the eastern quadrant.

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865. Levi32 00:02 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Getting hot up here in AK....at least to my north. Summers in this kind of pattern are an oven in the interior. 86 degrees in Fort Yukon today (latitude 67N)....overnight lows may not get below 65 tonight.

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866. IKE 00:03 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
I'm assuming BP knew the weather would be fair in the GOM for awhile and now would be a good time to remove the cap and put another one(better fitting), over the gushing oil.
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867. MiamiHurricanes09 00:04 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Levi32:
Getting hot up here in AK....at least to my north. Summers in this kind of pattern get hot in the interior. 86 degrees in Fort Yukon today (latitude 67N)....overnight lows may not get below 65 tonight.

Wow that pretty warm. But over here Bettles high is about 5 degrees colder than my lows.
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868. Dakster 00:05 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting IKE:
Here's the Atlantic ocean on the new discussion....

"ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 29N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N60W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-65W AN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH 700 NM ENE OF BERMUDA AND THEN NARROWS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING."


1030 mb's in 30.42 inches. That's a strong high and it's suppose to get 4 mb's stronger over the next few days...according to the GFS parallel.


Still quite a ways away from the record of 1094 (32.31 inches), but yes very strong.
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869. Hurricanejer95 00:05 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
At the same as today 2009 had
1-0-0-0
2008: 2-1-1 Active: Bertha (1)
2007: 2-0-0 (La Nina)
2006: 1-0-0 (El Nino)
2005: 4-2-1 Active: Dennis (3)
2004: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2003: 4-3-1-0 Active: Claudette (1)
2002: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2001: 1-0-0
2000: 2-0-0-0 (La Nina)
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870. Levi32 00:05 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Some places in northern Alaska are seeing high temperatures over 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal this week.
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871. MiamiHurricanes09 00:07 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


Still quite a ways away from the record of 1094 (32.31 inches), but yes very strong.
I wonder what it would feel like to be directly under that.
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872. Tazmanian 00:08 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
At the same as today 2009 had
1-0-0-0
2008: 2-1-1 Active: Bertha (1)
2007: 2-0-0 (La Nina)
2006: 1-0-0 (El Nino)
2005: 4-2-1 Active: Dennis (3)
2004: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2003: 4-3-1-0 Active: Claudette (1)
2002: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2001: 1-0-0
2000: 2-0-0-0 (La Nina)



????
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873. Dakster 00:10 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wonder what it would feel like to be directly under that.


I'd rather be under that, then the record LOW pressure..
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874. MiamiHurricanes09 00:12 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


I'd rather be under that, then the record LOW pressure..
I agree 100%! Lowest pressure ever was 869mb in Typhoon Tip.
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876. pinehurstnc 00:13 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
hello and peace to all,, forgive my off topic , i see a few here have commented on the oil spill, i had the pleasure today to sell blueberries to this nice older lady, and she said things about the oil spill that i found {quite bizarre} lol,, but she was adamant about , forgive this long spiel,, she has a newsletter sent to her by a friend stating that a methane gas ball would eventually ignite sending a fireball that would wipe out the entire gulf coast,, i dont know what religon or do not care where she heard this, i just thought it was interesting that people hear all things,, thanks again 4 all of your input so far 4 this upcoming season,, live from the us open 2014 .greg
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877. Hurricanes101 00:14 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree 100%! Lowest pressure ever was 869mb in Typhoon Tip.


870mb
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878. MiamiHurricanes09 00:15 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Hurricanes101:


870mb
It was 869.959804294mb so yeah I should have rounded it to 870mb.
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879. JRRP 00:19 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was 869.959804294mb so yeah you should round it to 870mb.

and the biggest
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880. SpuriousVortMax 00:20 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
check the last few frames of 12Z NOGAPS.
(I know...it's NOGAPS - just throwing a bone out there)
881. xcool 00:24 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
July Get Ready kaboom soon....
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882. Tazmanian 00:24 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
this think if there ss a 870mb storm in the gulf right now
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883. TankHead93 00:25 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was 869.959804294mb so yeah you should round it to 870mb.
I honestly believe that Tip no longer holds that record... there have been numerous tropical cyclones since Tip that probably reached a lower pressure, but due to poor surveillance, particularly the lack of recon in other tropical breeding areas (especially the western Pacific), we will never know unless it occurs in the Atlantic basin. Even with that the record may never be broken officially. Wilma's pressure was most likely even lower than the 882 mb recon recorded, but was not recorded because they left early.
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884. Grothar 00:25 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
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885. xcool 00:27 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    


cool images....
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886. MiamiHurricanes09 00:31 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting TankHead93:
I honestly believe that Tip no longer holds that record... there have been numerous tropical cyclones since Tip that probably reached a lower pressure, but due to poor surveillance, particularly the lack of recon in other tropical breeding areas (especially the western Pacific), we will never know unless it occurs in the Atlantic basin. Even with that the record may never be broken officially. Wilma's pressure was most likely even lower than the 882 mb recon recorded, but was not recorded because they left early.
I do believe that Wilma did beat the record set by Typhoon Tip, but because Recon did leave early we will never know. Hopefully, we never have any runner-ups to beat this record.
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887. Dakster 00:33 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting JRRP:

and the biggest


and formed from a monsoonal trough, like Alex and TD2.. with multiple vortices. Just think with time Alex could have been another tip. Thankfully he wasn't.
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888. Patrap 00:35 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
BP Live feeds from remotely operated vehicles (ROV)

ROV footage - live stream
Live video links from the ROVs monitoring the damaged riser.
Please be aware, these are live streams and may freeze or be unavailable from time to time.
Live feeds from Ocean Intervention III

ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Viking Poseidon
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Boa Deep C
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Skandi
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Enterprise
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Q4000
ROV 1
ROV 2
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889. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:35 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
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890. hydrus 00:35 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I do believe that Wilma did beat the record set by Typhoon Tip, but because Recon did leave early we will never know. Hopefully, we never have any runner-ups to beat this record.
I know. I think a 2 mile wide eye would have a really low pressure. Either way, I dont believe they can fly into an eye that small, and since they cannot or did not, we will never really know how fast and strong Wilma really was.jmo
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891. Grothar 00:36 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Dakster:


Still quite a ways away from the record of 1094 (32.31 inches), but yes very strong.


I thought the highest was around 1085, where was the one recorded at 1094? I must be falling behind the times. That happens with old age sometimes.
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892. Dakster 00:39 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Grothar:


I thought the highest was around 1085, where was the one recorded at 1094? I must be falling behind the times. That happens with old age sometimes.


The highest barometric pressure ever recorded on Earth was 32.31 inches (109.4kPa), measured in Agata, U.S.S.R., on December 31, 1968. Agata is located in northern Siberia. The weather was clear and very cold at the time, with temperatures between -40° and -58°.

The lowest pressure ever measured was 25.69 inches (87kPa), set on Oct. 12, 1979, during Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific Ocean. The measurement was based on an instrumental observation made from a reconnaissance aircraft.
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893. SLU 00:40 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Good call from the Hurricane Center to abstain from mentioning the West African wave in the TWO. Persistence is the key with tropical waves emerging off West Africa especially so early in the season. If it can hold together until tomorrow and continue to show signs of organisation, then it might become a real threat to develop.

As for the models, it's very puzzling that they haven't collectively recognised such a strong tropical wave. The GFS did show this same wave on its runs three days ago and carried it across the Atlantic on a relatively southerly course but it suddenly dropped it.







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894. sailingallover 00:43 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
If you want some excitement watch how the front coming off the states interacts with all the warm water and tropical air and instability from the ULL and it's reflection off the east coast as well as another stalled front over the gulf like 95L. That area has so much instability that something could pop up and be a surprise
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895. Patrap 00:45 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Researchers Witness Overnight Breakup, Retreat of Greenland Glacier

Mile-long Chunk of Ice Calves off Greenland Glacier


NASA-funded researchers monitoring Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier report that a 7 square kilometer (2.7 square mile) section of the glacier broke up on July 6 and 7, as shown in the image above. The calving front – where the ice sheet meets the ocean – retreated nearly 1.5 kilometers (a mile) in one day and is now further inland than at any time previously observed. The chunk of lost ice is roughly one-eighth the size of Manhattan Island, New York.

Research teams led by Ian Howat of the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University and Paul Morin, director of the Antarctic Geospatial Information Center at the University of Minnesota have been monitoring satellite images for changes in the Greenland ice sheet and its outlet glaciers. While this week's breakup itself is not unusual, Howat noted, detecting it within hours and at such fine detail is a new phenomenon for scientists.

"While there have been ice breakouts of this magnitude from Jakonbshavn and other glaciers in the past, this event is unusual because it occurs on the heels of a warm winter that saw no sea ice form in the surrounding bay," said Thomas Wagner, cryospheric program scientist at NASA Headquarters. "While the exact relationship between these events is being determined, it lends credence to the theory that warming of the oceans is responsible for the ice loss observed throughout Greenland and Antarctica."

The researchers relied on imagery from several satellites, including Landsat, Terra, and Aqua, to get a broad view of ice changes at both poles. Then, in the days leading up to the breakup, the team received images from DigitalGlobe's WorldView 2 satellite showing large cracks and crevasses forming.

DigitalGlobe Inc. provides the images as part of a public-private partnership with U.S. scientists. Howat and Morin are receiving near-daily satellite updates from the Jakobshavn, Kangerlugssuaq, and Helheim glaciers (among the islands largest) and weekly updates on smaller outlet glaciers.

Jakobshavn Isbrae is located on the west coast of Greenland at latitude 69°N and has been retreated more than 45 kilometers (27 miles) over the past 160 years, 10 kilometers (6 miles) in just the past decade. As the glacier has retreated, it has broken into a northern and southern branch. The breakup this week occurred in the north branch.

Scientists estimate that as much as 10 percent of all ice lost from Greenland is coming through Jakobshavn, which is also believed to be the single largest contributor to sea level rise in the northern hemisphere. Scientists are more concerned about losses from the south branch of the Jakobshavn, as the topography is flatter and lower than in the northern branch.

In addition to the remote sensing work, Howat, Morin, and other researchers have been funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation to plant GPS sensors, cameras, and other scientific equipment on top of the ice sheet to monitor changes and understand the fundamental workings of the ice. NASA also has been conducting twice-yearly airborne campaigns to the Arctic and Antarctic through the IceBridge program and measuring ice loss with the ICESat and GRACE satellites.

Related Links

Jakobshavn Glacier Calving Front Recession from 1851 to 2009
svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/...

NASA Finds Warmer Ocean Speeding Greenland Glacier Melt
www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2010-050

Antarctic Geospatial Information Center
www.agic.umn.edu/
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896. Tazmanian 00:46 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting SLU:
Good call from the Hurricane Center to abstain from mentioning the West African wave in the TWO. Persistence is the key with tropical waves emerging off West Africa especially so early in the season. If it can hold together until tomorrow and continue to show signs of organisation, then it might become a real threat to develop.

As for the models, it's very puzzling that they haven't collectively recognised such a strong tropical wave. The GFS did show this same wave on its runs three days ago and carried it across the Atlantic on a relatively southerly course but it suddenly dropped it.










the photos are old
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897. Seastep 00:49 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Thanks to Doc Rob. Appreciate your filling in and a great job at that.
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898. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:56 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
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899. CybrTeddy 00:57 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
At the same as today 2009 had
1-0-0-0
2008: 2-1-1 Active: Bertha (1)
2007: 2-0-0 (La Nina)
2006: 1-0-0 (El Nino)
2005: 4-2-1 Active: Dennis (3)
2004: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2003: 4-3-1-0 Active: Claudette (1)
2002: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2001: 1-0-0
2000: 2-0-0-0 (La Nina)


FYI we're 2-1-1-0..
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900. CybrTeddy 00:59 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting SLU:
Good call from the Hurricane Center to abstain from mentioning the West African wave in the TWO. Persistence is the key with tropical waves emerging off West Africa especially so early in the season. If it can hold together until tomorrow and continue to show signs of organisation, then it might become a real threat to develop.

As for the models, it's very puzzling that they haven't collectively recognised such a strong tropical wave. The GFS did show this same wave on its runs three days ago and carried it across the Atlantic on a relatively southerly course but it suddenly dropped it.









Actually the wave has been persisting for a while, and the GFS is recognizing it now for development or last I checked. I am slightly surprised the NHC didn't mention it but they are the experts.. they are waiting for persistence. If its still well organized at 8 am tomorrow, we might then look for a mention in the TWO.
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901. SLU 01:07 GMT le 11 juillet 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually the wave has been persisting for a while, and the GFS is recognizing it now for development or last I checked. I am slightly surprised the NHC didn't mention it but they are the experts.. they are waiting for persistence. If its still well organized at 8 am tomorrow, we might then look for a mention in the TWO.


The GFS continues to carry it northward and loses it which looks an unlikely track based on the steering currents. I suppose if the system holds on for a day or two the models will get a better handle of it.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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