Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Drakoen:
Wave off Africa reamins pretty vigorous. Can see the broad lower to mid level cyclonic turning about the wave axis as the disturbance moves towards the west.

Indeed.

65' wasnt no picnic either.



This image shows Hurricane Betsy in the Gulf of Mexico in September of 1965 as taken by the TIROS VIII weather satellite.
Date

1965 September 4





Flooding in the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans after Hurricane Betsy, with helicoptor visible.


September 1965

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON OCT 26 1998

THE EYE CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AND THE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE. LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB IN WASHINGTON AND THE TPC CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN
SOME EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF
THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION. IT
IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES TO MAINTAIN SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR
VERY LONG...BUT HURRICANES SUCH AS THESE ARE RARE EVENTS THEMSELVES.

MITCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR AT
LEAST A DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN FACTOR GOVERNING WHETHER MITCH WILL
MAINTAIN SUCH INTENSITY...OTHER THAN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
WHICH CAN CAUSE SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS...IS INCREASED VERTICAL
SHEAR. THIS SHEAR MAY BE PRODUCED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
IMPINGE ON MITCH.

MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OUR TRACK PREDICTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CONTINUE TO PUSH MITCH ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH TOWARD BELIZE OR YUCATAN...AND
THIS IS SHOWN BY THE BETA/ADVECTION MODELS AND THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
GLOBAL MODEL. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...NOGAPS...
AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE LATTER TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT
OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED RIDGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST...WHICH COULD
LEAVE A SLIGHT OPENING TO THE NORTH OF MITCH. THE LATEST GFDL RUN
SHOWS A SLOW MEANDERING MOTION DEVELOPING IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND
PERSISTING THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN 12 HOURS OR
SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
LONGER-TERM MOVEMENT OF MITCH REMAINS SHROUDED IN UNCERTAINTY.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...BASED ON THE 905 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY...MITCH IS TIED AS
THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HERE
ARE THE RANKINGS:

GILBERT (1988)...888 MB
UNNAMED (1935)...892 MB
ALLEN (1980)...899 MB
CAMILLE (1969)...905 MB
MITCH (1998)...905 MB


whats that unname storm in 1935 that had a 892mb

Quoting SLU:


I was 9 year old. lol

TS Jerry making landfall in the SE US. TS Iris in the Lesser Antilles, Hurricane Humberto recurving the the CATL, TS Karen south east of Humberto and TS Luis just forming off West Africa.

WHAT A SEASON! Probably the scariest I've experienced so far. We're never seen anything like this since then.

What about 2008? Gustav, Humberto (I think), Ike, and Joshephine (Spelled wrong I think).

Link

Nice hope this goes north.

953. Tazmanian 9:47 PM EDT on July 10, 2010

That was the "1935 Labor Day Hurricane".

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do you expect development?

Some slow developpment is possible over the next 48 hours. I want to see if it can maintain such structure and organization tomorrow.

Impressive:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
953. Tazmanian 9:47 PM EDT on July 10, 2010

That was the "1935 Labor Day Hurricane".

oh

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What about 2008? Gustav, Humberto (I think), Ike, and Joshephine (Spelled wrong I think).

yeh this was pretty nasty too

Quoting Levi32:
Impressive:

how did you get the longer loop?

I could only get 4 frames

Hurricane Betsy Radar Clip WSR 57

Sept 1965

Quoting StormW:


Learn what?

Basically figure of speech. It was an explanation of cyclogenesis, since you are the smartest on the blog I just used you as the example.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


how did you get the longer loop?

I could only get 4 frames

I made it =P

Link

This looks like it's being blown off the coast with some speed to it winds got be pretty strong in the upper levels.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


how did you get the longer loop?

I could only get 4 frames

I have no idea. He maybe just uploaded each frame and then put it together.

NOAA P-3 flys into the eyewall of Katrina, note pronounced "stadium effect"...

tinypic.com

You know that it's thankfully slow in the tropics when the talk turns to famous strong cyclones of the past who are no longer with us.......and the images are of landstorms over Africa.

Quoting StormW:


Oh...well I don't know about the smartest. I did study that article though, about 2 years ago.

You are one of the few on this blog in which have a degree in meteorology so you are definitely the smartest in my book.

Quoting hydrus:
I think you have to multiply by 33.865 not 33.835 Geritol boy...:)

Remember, I went to school in the last century and we weren't under as much "pressure" as you all are today. I used to use this formula:

However, I do use 33.863 when I want the storm to appear stronger. :P

Step 1
Multiply the pressure in inches of mercury by 0.0254 to arrive at meters of mercury. For example, if the barometric pressure reported in the weather report is 30 inches of mercury, that would be 0.762 meters of mercury.
Step 2
Multiply the pressure in meters of mercury by the density of mercury, 13579.04 kg per cubic meter, to arrive at the pressure in force kg per square meter. In the above example, this would br 10,347.2 force kg per square meter.
Step 3
Multiply the pressure in force kg per square meter by 9.81 to arrive at the pressure in Newtons per square meter. The above example here would result in 101,506.3 Newtons per square meter.

Step 4
Divide the pressure in Newtons per square meter by 100 to arrive at the pressure in millibars. In the above example this would be 1015.06 millibars. This is about 0.2% above the standard atmosphere at sea level.

Step 5
Alternatively, multiply the pressure in inches of mercury by 33.835 to arrive at the pressure in millibars. To convert from millibars to inches of mercury, simply divide by 33.835. If we multiply 30 inches of mercury by 33.835 we reach the same 1015.06 millibar.

Quoting StormW:


Gettin' that "S" signature to it.

Indeed.

WindSat just came in....shows strongly converging winds but no real circulation to speak of. However, all the barbs are rain-flagged and WindSat is known to be far less accurate than ASCAT, so it may look different in reality. The pass is also 8 hours old now that it finally came into the website.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I have no idea. He maybe just uploaded each frame and then put it together.

Its easy, but I'm not a telling :P

No match for Katrina. Fly inside the Hurricane Eye (Katrina)

Quoting Levi32:


Indeed.

WindSat just came in....shows strongly converging winds but no real circulation to speak of. However, all the barbs are rain-flagged and WindSat is known to be far less accurate than ASCAT, so it may look different in reality.

We should be getting a clean ASCAT pass tonight, hopefully we do.

Link


go here.Hurricanes101

<.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...BASED ON THE 905 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY...MITCH IS TIED AS
THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HERE
ARE THE RANKINGS:

GILBERT (1988)...888 MB
UNNAMED (1935)...892 MB
ALLEN (1980)...899 MB
CAMILLE (1969)...905 MB
MITCH (1998)...905 MB


whats that unname storm in 1935 that had a 892mb

It is referred to as the Labor day storm....Killed Mr Flaglers Railroad and several hundred people in the keys. The story goes that a private sail boat was anchored and as the eye passed over the sailor marked his Barometer with a grease pencil where the needle was off scale and it was later measured in an isobaric chamber at 905 mb by the 1935 version of the NWS. Thats the way my father told the story.
LNL

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We should be getting a clean ASCAT pass tonight, hopefully we do.

It missed.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You are one of the few on this blag in which have a degree in meteorology so you are definitely the smartest in my book.

lol, the blag?

Quoting Grothar:


Remember, I went to school in the last century and we weren't under as much "pressure" as you all are today. I used to use this formula:

However, I do use 33.863 when I want the storm to appear stronger. :P

Step 1
Multiply the pressure in inches of mercury by 0.0254 to arrive at meters of mercury. For example, if the barometric pressure reported in the weather report is 30 inches of mercury, that would be 0.762 meters of mercury.
Step 2
Multiply the pressure in meters of mercury by the density of mercury, 13579.04 kg per cubic meter, to arrive at the pressure in force kg per square meter. In the above example, this would br 10,347.2 force kg per square meter.
Step 3
Multiply the pressure in force kg per square meter by 9.81 to arrive at the pressure in Newtons per square meter. The above example here would result in 101,506.3 Newtons per square meter.

Step 4
Divide the pressure in Newtons per square meter by 100 to arrive at the pressure in millibars. In the above example this would be 1015.06 millibars. This is about 0.2% above the standard atmosphere at sea level.

Step 5
Alternatively, multiply the pressure in inches of mercury by 33.835 to arrive at the pressure in millibars. To convert from millibars to inches of mercury, simply divide by 33.835. If we multiply 30 inches of mercury by 33.835 we reach the same 1015.06 millibar.

Well, we are unfortuneately held to much higher standards. They ask too much of us.

Quoting Levi32:


It missed.

Darn! I didn't know it came out already.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, the blag?

LOL, meant to say blog.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Levi I see outflow on the north side of the wave heading north, and on the south side heading south. Which looks like good outflow. That interests me.

Yup, a sign that convection has been sustained for a while, and is now starting to spit out exhaust.

I was about 5 miles away from this Footage in Elena in Gulfport,Miss in Sept 85. One could hear the backside eye wall coming about 3 minutes before it came in after the eye.

Was Creepy Morning.

Footage as Hurricane Elena's textbook eye moves over Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of September 2, 1985.

any one posted the wind shear map today

Quoting StormW:


Yeah...everything is probably closer to mid level right now...probably associated in the AEJ 700-600mb.

Likely so, although the 18z GFS analyzes it as closed at 850mb so it is probably getting lower than that, but not likely to the surface yet.

Quoting Levi32:


Yup, a sign that convection has been sustained for a while, and is now starting to spit out exhaust.

Isn't that just divergence at play?