Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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1226. xcool
buz
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Quoting Skyepony:
93W


About time.
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1224. Skyepony (Mod)
93W
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1222. xcool



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thats what ive been saying
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1220. xcool


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1219. xcool
:0
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Quoting btwntx08:

lol on the cmc


Maybe..it has the best stats beyond day 5...although, admittedly, stats are dismal beyond day 5 for most NWP.

Ensembles though, are a different kettle of fish. Properly calibrated, they provide a good sense of probability if not detail.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Was that during the ana,cluadette,and bill rage last year.Must have been because the season was really a dead one before and after. Did you join last fall?


It was actually before. And I've been a registered member since March 2007.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I heard that did happen one time,and you all had to go to w456's blog right?

I am not sure. I have been blogging here for about a year and so far so good.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I heard that did happen one time,and you all had to go to w456's blog right?


Yeah. 'Twas last year.
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18Z GEFS (Ensembles) pretty quiet until day 8 then a hint of a passing ely wave in the srn Gomex..until the 25th

Link

CMC ensemble (12Z..only 2X/day) begs to differ with a strong sys approaching FL on the 19th

Link

until then, the best weather is in the PAC NW :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What do you mean by not likely? its definitely possible.

The SAL is very large at the moment, near 15N across much of the Tropical Atlantic. IF, and I do mean IF the waves off of Africa are vibrant enough and can stay S of the SAL or absorb some of it and moisten the environment for the next wave, then we may have development of a CV storm,

However, CV season normally kicks into gear in early August.

Remember there are about 100 tropical waves that shoot off Africa and only about 5-10 of them develop into a TC.
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Quoting JRRP:

the wave near Ghana has nice rotation

And impressive outflow boundaries.
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I am going through "Invest" withdrawals here. Categorized by staring at African waves coming off W Africa and the SAL maps going, "Come on, you can beat the SAL, you can do it"!!

Enjoy the brief break, because there is MUCH more to follow!!
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wind shear is low
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Quoting Bordonaro:

You may be right, however if one of the emerging waves beats out the SAL, by moving south of the SAL, or by one wave absorbing the blow and another moves off into a moist environment, then we may have a big problem. Not likely, but it is in the realm of possibility.


What do you mean by not likely? its definitely possible.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting hurrkat05:
conditions are very hostile for anything to develop off the african coast..the dry air is very prevelant and will snuff out all the waves that try to develop..this should last until the end of july then things will calm down..don't look for anything to develop until then..

You may be right, however if one of the emerging waves beats out the SAL, by moving south of the SAL, or by one wave absorbing the blow and another moves off into a moist environment, then we may have a big problem. Not likely, but it is in the realm of possibility.
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1198. xcool
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
You come on this time of night and you would expect the blog to be quite.Oh well.Any way I was just talking about the west pacific being dead.Looks like we could see a storm soon.Also the models are picking up on a strong storm in the east pacific.

Can you hear the crickets chirping and the pin that you just dropped hit the floor?? Just wait till the tropics really heat up, we may end up crashing the WU server (sure hopwe that NEVER happens)!
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Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
been on the original 12 hr. one for here when i first got a free membership
do u think that the nhc will put an invest name on it i think within 12-24 hrs

Probably not. This is how they described the area of disturbed weather moving off the W coast of Africa:

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N30W 5N41W 5N54W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 9N-12N.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 7N-12N E OF 19W
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 36W-40W

Just need to wait, watch & see what happens, over the next 24-48 hours. There is a large area of SAL (Sahara Air Layer) a dry airmass the blows off the Sahara Desert, loaded with dry air and sand that may snuff the life out of this "wave" moving off Africa. It has been looking very healthy over the last 12-14 hrs.
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1191. xcool
wave at N CLEAN OUT SAL
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1190. Levi32
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
been on the original 12 hr. one for here when i first got a free membership
do u think that the nhc will put an invest name on it i think within 12-24 hrs


I doubt it. They will wait for another 24 hours to see if it sustains this much convection and structure, but chances are that, as with a lot of waves, it won't. The dry air to the north may choke it. If it happens to survive and maintain its current presentation over the next 24 hours, they may label it an invest, but we'll have to wait until then and see how it looks.
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been on the original 12 hr. one for here when i first got a free membership
do u think that the nhc will put an invest name on it i think within 12-24 hrs
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Quoting Bordonaro:

The NHC will wait at least another 24-48 hrs to watch the latest wave as it moves westward off the coast of Africa. They have not even designated it as a tropical wave yet, however they did mention that it is an enhanced area of convergence on the ITCZ, nothing more.

We all are blog or wave watching at the moment as the Tropical Atlantic has gone quiet, at least for the moment :o)!


Thanks...just curious.
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Quoting btwntx08:

nope just took a few days off

Bet you are ready for a drying trend. Brownsville has seen about 15" of rain over the last 2 1/2 weeks!
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Quoting btwntx08:

nope just took a few days off



we had TD 2 not too long a go
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Just got back on a few minutes ago...is there any reason this wave off of Africa won't develop or should we be seeing a yellow circle pretty soon?

The NHC will wait at least another 24-48 hrs to watch the latest wave as it moves westward off the coast of Africa. They have not even designated it as a tropical wave yet, however they did mention that it is an enhanced area of convergence on the ITCZ, nothing more.

We all are blob or wave watching at the moment as the Tropical Atlantic has gone quiet, at least for the moment :o)!
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1182. xcool
hey btwntx08:
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Quoting btwntx08:
heyyy



there you are have you been on a 24hr banned ?? been some time
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hi everyone first time blogger here
i have a feeling we will hear more about this one of the coast now for days to come because of the flare up of thunderstorm near the center and the low pressure movement
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1179. Levi32
Quoting beell:
Geez, we were out of milk again...

Levi @ 1146 and 1148:

I guess it is to what degree you consider a reversal of the winds between NH Summer and Winter. If you exclude the northward shift of the ITCZ there is not much there. Certainly nothing approaching the WPAC and BOB monsoons.

But I can live with calling it a monsoon. I'm convinced, lol.


Eh, I don't think I'm ok with calling it a "true monsoon" like the Indian and African monsoons, but the distinctly different qualities of this segment of the ITCZ demand a different name to distinguish it from the rest of the ITCZ, so I think monsoon trough fits the bill ok. We should both remember to ask 456....he has a million reasons why it's a real monsoon trough, but I never got to hear them all.

It does share most of the qualities of the west Pacific monsoon trough.
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Just got back on a few minutes ago...is there any reason this wave off of Africa won't develop or should we be seeing a yellow circle pretty soon?
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1177. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
Grothar i delete my posting just put j


Just fooling with you, xcool. Goodnight everyone.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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