Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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Quoting barbamz:


Impressing wave! Will be interesting to track. Good night to you from really tropical Germany, after watching the last soccer WC-game for Germany (third place, that's ok, and we are happy). After midnight we have still more than 86°F in my town, but thunderstorms will arrive soon.

How hot was it yesterday (on Saturday) in Germany?
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Levi32:
The wave emerging off Africa is already showing promise as the majority of its convection has been being generated over the water, not the land, during the past 24 hours when you look at the loops.

Do you think the NHC should mention it in the next TWO? (IMO they should)
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I wonder if the convection to the east of the system will be sucked in.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting GettySquare:
levi, is that wave about to cause ''michief''? LOL.


Levi's infamous word. :P
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981
Quoting KarenRei:


Hey, can anyone help me with this? I'm trying to fast forward in the stream to see what it looks like once they put the new cap back on -- but it won't let me. What am I doing wrong?

;)


You don't have the new ATT U-Verse advanced DVR with the new fast forward feature do you?
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Quoting Levi32:
The wave emerging off Africa is already showing promise as the majority of its convection has been being generated over the water, not the land, during the past 24 hours when you look at the loops.


Is the wave axis still inland and that is why NHC has not mentioned it yet?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sat24


Impressing wave! Will be interesting to track. Good night to you from really tropical Germany, after watching the last soccer WC-game for Germany (third place, that's ok, and we are happy). After midnight we have still more than 86°F in my town, but thunderstorms will arrive soon.
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Quoting GettySquare:
levi, is that wave about to cause ''michief''? LOL.


lol
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Quoting Levi32:
The wave emerging off Africa is already showing promise as the majority of its convection has been being generated over the water, not the land, during the past 24 hours when you look at the loops.
Indeed, this is one of the few waves this year that has been able to support its convection atop water after emerging off of the African coast.

Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking at that there is just more heat focused in the Atlantic because of multiple factors such as the PDO or La Niña (equatorial Pacific). Looking at that I doubt we will see the SSTs this season go below average but rather stay above average until at least November.


I agree.
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good afternoon all. all seems to be pretty quiet here and in the tropics - at least for alittle while anyway...

aqua, I posted you a new link in Beach's blog to see the rover in action.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


SST anomalies for July 8, 2010:



Notice the wide swath of oranges and reds off New England.
Looking at that there is just more heat focused in the Atlantic because of multiple factors such as the PDO or La Niña (equatorial Pacific). Looking at that I doubt we will see the SSTs this season go below average but rather stay above average until at least November.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
The wave emerging off Africa is already showing promise as the majority of its convection has been being generated over the water, not the land, during the past 24 hours when you look at the loops.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Looked at water temps off of Long Island and NJ. The water temps are between 76-78F already, which is quite unusual for July.

God FORBID a major hurricane trucked up the East Coast, it would not have time to weaken!!!


SST anomalies for July 8, 2010:



Notice the wide swath of oranges and reds off New England.
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760. JLPR2
Definitely up to something

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sat24


awesome, still images update too lol

thanks
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Quoting aquak9:
My momma always said, "better a smarta$$, than a dumba$$..."


I'm inclined to agree with her.
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Quoting helove2trac:
we need a td,ts or hurricane something to track this is boring i hope next week picks up


for those of us in the southeast, we really don't want to track ANYTHING. Not looking forward to 30-foot seas and 100 mph winds tracking oil and (banned in the UK) Corexit 9500 over our heads.
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Looked at water temps off of Long Island and NJ. The water temps are between 76-78F already, which is quite unusual for July.

God FORBID a major hurricane trucked up the East Coast, it would not have time to weaken!!!

22NM SE of Montauk Pt, NY

Conditions at 44017 as of
(5:50 pm EDT)
2150 GMT on 07/10/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.8 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.0 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.8 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 F
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
My momma always said, "better a smarta$$, than a dumba$$..."
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


what is the link to that site?
Sat24
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
751. xcool
sat24.com
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15669
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This area appears to be acquiring a more curved structure as if there was a strong closed surface circulation. Obviously, telling from the latest WindSAT there isn't but an interesting structure nonetheless.





what is the link to that site?
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AMSU microwave imagery shows the curvature just off the coast of Africa.

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This area appears to be acquiring a more curved structure as if there was a somewhat strong closed surface circulation. Obviously, telling from the latest WindSAT there isn't but an interesting structure nonetheless.



Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Grothar:


You obviously don't know me well? Yes, of course I was kidding. I throw those little things out there to see if atmoaggie corrects me. Sigh, he always does.


Ahh, what a relief. I mainly lurk and read, but it's good to have other smart*** people to laugh with.....
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:


Oh ok. Thanks for that info Bordonaro.

Lived there in NY, been a weather nut since I was 7.
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting SavannahStorm:


MIMIC imagery is very telling. The "moisture contraction" seen in the last few frames at the African coast is usually indicative of a powerful and organizing tropical wave. Most waves don't survive that phase and go POOF when they emerge over water. This one looks to be doing just peachy.
Some cyclonic rotation can also be noted at the very end of the run.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Bordonaro:

The Gulf Stream veers to the east off the the NJ shoreline. The buoy about 225 miles east of Cape May, NJ will shoot up to 80F by the end of August.

The max water temps off the Mid Atlantic region reach 80F in late August, about 75F off Long Island, but hover near 70F near Cape Cod and the lower to mid 60's off of Maine, due to the cooler Labrador current near Nova Scotia.


Oh ok. Thanks for that info Bordonaro.
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We had some very strong winds a Hour ago from the Wave as it passed over and it looks like the wind reading device failed so i will have to go home to get a real reading of how strong it really was
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
I do know the seals and Tuna come north for the cooler waters and the sharks follow. If anyone has ever been in New England waters they are always cold. El Nina I guess.

The Gulf Stream veers to the east off the the NJ shoreline. The buoy about 225 miles east of Cape May, NJ will shoot up to 80F by the end of August.

The max water temps off the Mid Atlantic region reach 80F in late August, about 75F off Long Island, but hover near 70F near Cape Cod and the lower to mid 60's off of Maine, due to the cooler Labrador current near Nova Scotia.
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
we need a td,ts or hurricane something to track this is boring i hope next week picks up
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Join us August 28th for Rising Tide 5
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
According to the ERMA site the Loop Current is still well south of the rig site in the GOM. You can check this under Present Environmental Conditions, then Analysis/Nowcasts/ then under Surface Horizontal Current. Here is the link: Link
Roffs confirmed this also from their map from a few days ago: Link
Member Since: 10 juin 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
I do know the seals and Tuna come north for the cooler waters and the sharks follow. If anyone has ever been in New England waters they are always cold. El Nina I guess.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Having lived on Long Island, the water temps off the Cape normally hit 70F is late August or early September, NOT in early July.

I am not sure about the Great White Shark sightings though, but I do believe they occasionally appear in the New England waters.


Many Great Whites frequent the South African coast where temps are usually in the 50-70F range, so I don't see why they wouldn't be around in those temperatures. They are usually sighted off the Georgia coast in winter and spring, but are gone by the time temps hit 75F or so because its too hot for them.
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Question for anyone who can answer...
IS the water off Cape Cad MA ever been in the 70's this early? There has been Great White sightings earlier than I remember?

Having lived on Long Island, the water temps off the Cape normally hit 70F is late August or early September, NOT in early July.

I am not sure about the Great White Shark sightings though, but I do believe they occasionally appear in the New England waters.
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Question for anyone who can answer...
IS the water off Cape Cad MA ever been in the 70's this early? There has been Great White sightings earlier than I remember?
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Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24015
GFS is developing the wave emerging off Africa that looks very impressive. It was emerging it at 48 hours earlier, now it shows it strengthening tomorrow. GFS naturally does better with storms like the CV disturbance than storms in the Caribbean that form similar to TD2 and Alex. I want to see more models jump on board first though.
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727. xcool
july 20 2008 cape verde
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15669


MIMIC imagery is very telling. The "moisture contraction" seen in the last few frames at the African coast is usually indicative of a powerful and organizing tropical wave. Most waves don't survive that phase and go POOF when they emerge over water. This one looks to be doing just peachy.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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