Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.

Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.

Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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151. reedzone 15:26 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date. Has favorable conditions until it hits the TUTT around 48W, very interesting. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

154. BahaHurican 15:28 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date. Was about to say the imagery I saw earlier made it look a lot healthier (more curve?) than others I've seen at that location so far this season. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

156. StadiumEffect 15:29 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Link Great loop to see the wave off the African coast...

157. Drakoen 15:29 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
It is actually somewhat puzzling why the models don't pick up this. The Saharan Air Layer is seen to be well north of the AOI. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

158. scott39 15:29 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting hydrus: East of Africa? Where is it, in the Indian Ocean? I guess thats the Indian Ocean? LOL, I dont know that part of the world very well. This wave looks like it will start going over the E side of Africa in a couple of days. Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

159. Drakoen 15:30 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: He has a B.S. and M.S. in meteorology. I thought he only had a B.S. from Rutgers Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

160. BahaHurican 15:30 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting reedzone: Morning everyone, the Reed Low didn't get absorbed as the models showed, I see a nice circulation south of Cape Code, still NON-TROPICAL, if this has about 2-3 more days in the Gulf Current, I'd say a Subtropical would form. Looks like we will be quiet in the Atlantic and the Pacific for a week or so. I have a feeling our next storm will form near Africa. Morning reed. Looks like the "reedlow" will be a salvation to the overheated ranks of the NE US coastline.... did u notice the latest wave off Africa? Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

162. Bordonaro 15:31 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting SarasotaRepub: Morning everyone. New member, I'm in Sarasota,FL east of Siesta Key. Look forward to posting with all of you. SR Welcome to Weather Underground. I have been a blogging here for about 1 year now. I have learned so much from this team of bloggers. There are many great folks on here. I consider them a "part of my family". Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)! Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

163. reedzone 15:33 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: Morning reed. Looks like the "reedlow" will be a salvation to the overheated ranks of the NE US coastline.... did u notice the latest wave off Africa? Yep, very impressive wave, looks like it will just miss the SAL and will have a good chance for development until it gets to around 50W. The TUTT low is pretty strong. We'll have to see what happens, maybe it won't be THAT quiet this weekend into the next week. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

164. Drakoen 15:34 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: In your opinion, do you believe this wave may survive it's encounter with the TUTT Low over the W ATL? The models forecast for the TUTT to remain mainly north of 20N Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

165. Bordonaro 15:34 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: It is actually somewhat puzzling why the models don't pick up this. The Saharan Air Layer is seen to be well north of the AOI. They are computer models, unfortunately, they do not pick up every feature. They seem to want to develop those "phantom storms" also. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

166. CoopsWife 15:35 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: That's Senior Chief! ROFL, Storm. Or, in Navy speak, just Senior! Might be why the L&M was so glad for the last promotion, LOL - just got tired of the nickame! Member Since: 19 juin 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4167

167. Bordonaro 15:35 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: The models forecast for the TUTT to remain mainly north of 20N Thanks Drak. The tropical wave is very robust, it may be our first CV storm of the year. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

168. SarasotaRepub 15:36 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Welcome to Weather Underground. I have been a blogging here for about 1 year now. I have learned so much from this team of bloggers. There are many great folks on here. I consider them a "part of my family". Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)! Thank you much. Been getting the new house hurricane ready. It came with PGT hurricane windows but we still need a new rated gargage door and a couple of doors covered with acordions but they are on order. Generator is the next item! Member Since: 9 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

169. StadiumEffect 15:37 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Link SAL

170. CybrTeddy 15:38 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date. GFS attempts to develop this wave at 48 hours. ECMWF develops the wave in the middle of that picture. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

171. Chicklit 15:38 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)! Yeah, fights n all. (Keeper, Skyepony, PressLord, Taz, good grief!...thinking of all the people on here who contribute so much reminds me of when I was a kid and saying my prayers, the list would just go on and on ...) Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

173. reedzone 15:39 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: They are computer models, unfortunately, they do not pick up every feature. They seem to want to develop those "phantom storms" also. Felix in 2007 is a great example of a phantom storm! Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

175. nrtiwlnvragn 15:40 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting BahaHurican: I vote for other factor we don't know. The MJO for me is just another indicator of increased activity, and that IMO suggests increased potential for TC formation, other things being favorable. I'm kinda hopin' this newest wx breed we see popping up in here (from Mr. Canglialosi on down) will help us to move to the next level, both in clycogenesis and intensity forecasting. :o) A must read to keep up with the current state of the art is the Hurricane Research Divisions 2010 Hurricane Field Program Plan. Along with the actual research that will be conducted this summer, it briefly goes into the theory and/or current understanding related to tropical cyclones. For example many people equate SAL = Dust, but it is much more than that. Excerpt from the doc: SAL outbreaks typically move westward off the western coast of North Africa every 3-5 days during the summer months. There are several characteristics of these frequent outbreaks that can act to suppress Atlantic TC formation: 1) The SAL contains dry, stable air that can diminish local convection by promoting convectively driven downdrafts in the TC environment; 2) The SAL contains a mid-level easterly jet that can significantly increase the local vertical wind shear. The low-level circulations of TCs under the influence of this jet tend to race out ahead of their mid and upper-level convection, decoupling the storm and weakening it; 3) Mineral dust suspended within the SAL absorbs solar energy and subsequently releases longwave infrared energy. These thermal emissions act to warm the SAL and can re-enforce the tropical inversion that already exists in the tropical North Atlantic. This warming helps to stabilize the environment and also limits vertical mixing through the SAL, allowing it to maintain its distinctive low humidity for extended periods of time (several days) and over long distances (1000s of km). Recent studies also suggest that mineral dust may impact the formation of clouds in both the ambient tropical and tropical cyclone environments. Data from previous studies have indicated that the particle size of the SAL’s suspended mineral typically ranges from 0.4 - 40 μm; Objectives: The main objectives of SALEX are to: • Better understand how the SAL’s dry air, mid-level easterly jet, and suspended mineral dust affect Atlantic TC intensity change; • Include the moisture information from the GPS dropwindsondes in operational parallel runs of the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The impact of this data on the GFS (and GFDL) initial/forecast humidity fields and its forecasts of TC track and intensity will be assessed; • Investigate the representation of the SAL’s temperature structure, low- to mid-level dry air, and embedded easterly jet in the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF-X models compared to GPS dropsonde data; • Investigate the relationship between vertical distributions of dust detected by the DWL and temperature profiles/anomalies captured by collocated GPS dropsonde (pending P-3 DWL availability); Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8932

177. Drakoen 15:41 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

178. Bordonaro 15:41 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting SarasotaRepub: Thank you much. Been getting the new house hurricane ready. It came with PGT hurricane windows but we still need a new rated gargage door and a couple of doors covered with acordions but they are on order. Generator is the next item! Hopefully a hurricane will not strike your area. However, it would be wise to make every hurricane preparation possible. I live in "tornado alley", Arlington (Dallas-Ft Worth) Texas, 250 miles inland off the Gulf of Mexico. I know my what to do to stay safe is a severe thunderstorm/severe weather situation. No hurricanes up here! You may want to check out "Satrap's" weather blog, he has an AWESOME hurricane preparedness blog :o) Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

179. reedzone 15:42 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I'd say we have 97L by tonight by looking at that. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

180. Drakoen 15:42 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Yea...ya know Drak, I think with conditions the way they are this season, it's probably going to be better for the most part, at least my thinking, to go with forecast conditions such as shear, and looking at things like you have pointed out this morning, as far a predicting development. Thoughts? I mean, I know models give us a hint and areas to look at. I was thinking that too. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

181. Bordonaro 15:43 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)! Yeah, fights n all. (Keeper, Skyepony, PressLord, Taz, good grief!...thinking of all the people on here that contribute so much reminds me of when I was a kid and saying my prayers, the list would just go on and on ...) I wanted to let you know I was looking for a "Honking Tropical Wave GIF" on Google, but I could not find one. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

182. Drakoen 15:44 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
NHC surface analysis have yet to even recognize the wave. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

184. TropicalAnalystwx13 15:44 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Morning Guys...Been reading back some. I see we may actually have two waves to watch for CV development... Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

185. tropics21 15:45 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
If the Oil Spill is not important to tropical storms why does Link the NHC have this on their main page? Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263

186. scott39 15:46 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Is there a large ULL in the central Atlantic that will prevent any TC developement, for at least 7 to 10 days? Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

187. TropicalAnalystwx13 15:46 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Hopefully a hurricane will not strike your area. However, it would be wise to make every hurricane preparation possible. I live in "tornado alley", Arlington (Dallas-Ft Worth) Texas, 250 miles inland off the Gulf of Mexico. You may want to check out "Satrap's" weather blog, he has an AWESOME hurricane preparedness blog :o) We did not have a good Severe Weather Season this March-May did we? The only time I remember this season was getting hit with 1.00 inch hail. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

189. Drakoen 15:47 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting StormW: Ya know, I really respect your work on here. Thank You. Everything is a nice collective effort ultimately. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

192. Bordonaro 15:49 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: We did not have a good Severe Weather Season this March-May did we? The only time I remember this season was getting hit with 1.00 inch hail. Thank God, we had a very, very tame Severe Weather Season this year. We did have a decent microburst earlier this week in N Arlington, TX, near I-30 & Six Flags Drive. Moderate wind damage from 60-70MPH straight line winds. But we will pay for the quiet 2010 Severe Weather Season, either this fall or early next year. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

194. CybrTeddy 15:50 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
I think this is a recent pass.. or yesterdays. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

196. Bordonaro 15:51 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: I think this is a recent pass.. or yesterdays. Today's pass at 1500UTC or 10AM CDT/11AM EDT. Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

197. WeatherNerdPR 15:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
Good Morning. Quoting Drakoen: :o That's an Impressive Wave! Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

198. Drakoen 15:53 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
If the wave can hold together like this for another 12 hours or so we may actually have something to focus on. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

199. Patrap 15:55 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
WV loop with Dry Air Shaded Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

200. Drakoen 15:56 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
GFS 12z suggests this is possible. Though the reason why it shows cyclolosis maybe the eventual influx of the SAL as the systems circulation becomes better defined. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

201. Patrap 15:58 GMT le 10 juillet 2010
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms. * Hurricane Monitoring * Animated GOES Imagery * SRCC Compilation of Satellite Imagery * Ocean and Atmospheric Products Atlantic WV GOES-12 Image Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

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