Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??


Only if you're going for the inviseble man look!
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big picture
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
If it's a big red X, yes. Otherwise, no.
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Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??


No..
Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting atmoaggie:
And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.



can someone please explain what this is... I'm a novice and think of myself as pretty smart, but I am at a loss for this chart.
Help?
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271. 7544
nope jlpr
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270. JRRP
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??
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Hi guys....should any development come out of this??

Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting StormW:


Oh...my bad...I've noticed that...almost always seems to be a discrepancy between those two. I know the CIMSS is derived high density satellite winds.
I myself consider CIMSS more reliable, the other one doesn't seem detailed.
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Windshift from surface observations on the African coast.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I was there the night the Union Jack was lowered for the last time and the first time the black, gold and aquamarine was hoisted... very emotional moment, even though I was 2 young to understand everything that was going on...


Well thats wonderful. Please excuse my ignorance. its nice to know!
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263. JRRP
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Quoting atmoaggie:
And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.

Now that's a purdy strong MJO.
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Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting StormW:


Because the one I posted is a forecast map...CIMSS is near real time.
I understand that. What I meant is the discrepancy between CIMSS and this one:

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like, at least potentially, this newest wave will give us something to watch over the next little while.
And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.

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Looks like, at least potentially, this newest wave will give us something to watch over the next little while.
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It's supposed to be quiet in the tropics. Get out and enjoy.... before to late.


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Quoting Inactivity:


If you look at post 220,the map shows that it is already starting to move out of the pocket,however that vertical shear map is 10 hours old(as of 06z).
CIMSS and that map are different, don't know what the discrepancy is though. The one I posted is from 15:00UTC though.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


We didn't have to fight either :)
Other then the odd skirmish with our southern neighbours... we would rather BBQ & drink :)
LOL . . . hey, we moved out of mom's house, but kept a very amicable relationship w/Mummy dearest... good for the tourism product, u know...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Locally, for you guys, this season picked up in the plains after your usual time for peak severe WX activity, April to early May. Most of the gains back to almost normal levels have been, geographically, to your north.

True, but we usually pay dearly for these quiet Tornado Season's here in North Texas, wither later this year during the fall months or early in 2011 from late Feb-Mid June.
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this situation looks very interesting. coditions after 24 hrs will gradually improve
and with the continuing forecast west track the islands of the lesser antilles should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The AOI will continue westward motion into a pocket of 20 knot shear, once it passes this area shear is favorable for development, in the 5-10 knot threshold.



If you look at post 220,the map shows that it is already starting to move out of the pocket,however that vertical shear map is 10 hours old(as of 06z).
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Quoting LPstormspotter2:


Hmmm.. seems kinda strange its only 37yrs ago. kinda sad... so are you old enough to know the before?
Yeah, I was there the night the Union Jack was lowered for the last time and the first time the black, gold and aquamarine was hoisted... very emotional moment, even though I was 2 young to understand everything that was going on...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
TYVM.... [Shakes clasped hands over head in victory salute] And we didn't have 2 fight as hard... UK were practically GIVING away colonies in the late 60s.... lol


We didn't have to fight either :)
Other then the odd skirmish with our southern neighbours... we would rather BBQ & drink :)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey MH09 can you post that link to that Sat if you can the loop would be nice Thanks
Sat24 or Ramsdis?
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hey MH09 can you post that link to that Sat if you can the loop would be nice Thanks
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Upper Divergence



Lower Convergence

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Quoting Bordonaro:


As soon as the El Nino faded away, the Severe (Tornado) Season took off with a vengeance. And if next spring is a neutral or La Nina year, things will be very ugly in the Tornado department.
Yep. Locally, for you guys, this season picked up in the plains after your usual time for peak severe WX activity, April to early May. Most of the gains back to almost normal levels have been, geographically, to your north.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Bahamas are like Canada and is part of the Commonwealth. (ie The good guys)
TYVM.... [Shakes clasped hands over head in victory salute] And we didn't have 2 fight as hard... UK were practically GIVING away colonies in the late 60s.... lol
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The AOI will continue westward motion into a pocket of 20 knot shear, once it passes this area shear is favorable for development, in the 5-10 knot threshold.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Same as u guys, only 200 years later... U know, I started to put it in, but didn't... lol


Hmmm.. seems kinda strange its only 37yrs ago. kinda sad... so are you old enough to know the before?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Actually caught up to average on nados, almost. And that average is a 5 year average, skewed by 2008's numbers.



Actually very near the 50th percentile when considering a longer term record and excluding 2008:


As soon as the El Nino faded away, the Severe (Tornado) Season took off with a vengeance. And if next spring is a neutral or La Nina year, things will be very ugly in the Tornado department.
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re. 229... as I was thinking earlier, that Twave at 37W [eyeballed] is pulling ITCZ north w/ it. (I am assuming in response to the high weakening along that edge?) Sure does make it a bit easier for the newly emerged wave to move west...
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Bahamas are like Canada and is part of the Commonwealth. (ie The good guys)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
at the moment pre-97L will go well if this pattern continues we could be looking at a Ivan the terible track storm


lets not get carried away with the track stuff
this got 14 hrs to persist over open water lets wait till it gets its feet wet
organization is there persistence will be the key
wait watch see
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
if pre-97L get a ULH on it shear should not be a pooblem
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC shows a low, GFS shows a system, ECMWF shows a system. NOGAPS was showing a system IIRC but dropped it.
NOGAPS did show a system but now just leaves this wave that just emerged off of Africa along the coast and just kills it slowly. It does develop its usual system in the SW Caribbean though.
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very impressive wave with a 1006mb low. there is a small pocket of 20 knots of wind shear ahead of the system. to the south is a small anti cyclone. provided that the wave can mentain the convection the way ahead appears favourable for continued development. the only hindrance is the sal to its north but that is forecast to disperse during the next few days. if the system holds it will track mainly due west, on the southern periphery othe strong high to its north. this could be the start of an early cape verde season
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Quoting Inactivity:
Wind shear won't be a problem



Couldnt fly a kite in that wind... lol
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CMC shows a low, GFS shows a system, ECMWF shows a system. NOGAPS was showing a system IIRC but dropped it.
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229. JRRP
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL I was thinking the same thing ... probably the spanish or english..

The United Kingdom.
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Quoting LPstormspotter2:


ok prolly a dumb question but.. i would like to know. Independence from who?
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL I was thinking the same thing ... probably the spanish or english..
Same as u guys, only 200 years later... U know, I started to put it in, but didn't... lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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