Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery


These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

* Hurricane Monitoring
* Animated GOES Imagery
* SRCC Compilation of Satellite Imagery
* Ocean and Atmospheric Products



Atlantic WV GOES-12 Image

Is the ITCZ being farther south than usual have any impact/correlation to how far south the waves are coming off Africa?

Very impressive...

gota agree jason might get taged solon as 97l but where will it go ?

Quoting Bordonaro:

Thank God, we had a very, very tame Severe Weather Season this year. We did have a decent microburst earlier this week in N Arlington, TX, near I-30 & Six Flags Drive. Moderate wind damage from 60-70MPH straight line winds.

But we will pay for the quiet 2010 Severe Weather Season, either this fall or early next year.

Actually caught up to average on nados, almost. And that average is a 5 year average, skewed by 2008's numbers.



Actually very near the 50th percentile when considering a longer term record and excluding 2008:

GOES-15... Link

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
:o That's an Impressive Wave!

yep at the right place and right time its to get even nicer

SAL shouldn't have an affect on this tropical wave unless it begins to venture off out of the ITCZ.

BTW, before I forget...

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE, BAHAMAS!!!!



Celebrating 37 years of independence.



Haven't had these yet....



Independence Day Weather.... haven't had a day this rainy and overcast in the capital in literally years...

a good day for you baha

Quoting StormW:
SAL SATELLITE ANALYSIS

So Storm, do you think the SAL is going to keep the new wave from developing or just a challenge?

Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, before I forget...

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE, BAHAMAS!!!!



Celebrating 37 years of independence.



Haven't had these yet....



Independence Day Weather.... haven't had a day this rainy and overcast in the capital in literally years...

ok prolly a dumb question but.. i would like to know. Independence from who?

Quoting LPstormspotter2:


ok prolly a dumb question but.. i would like to know. Independence from who?

LOL I was thinking the same thing ... probably the spanish or english..

Wind shear won't be a problem.

at the moment pre-97L will go well if this pattern continues we could be looking at a Ivan the terible track storm

so far the gfs kills it prob due to sal
Link

Quoting LPstormspotter2:


ok prolly a dumb question but.. i would like to know. Independence from who?

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL I was thinking the same thing ... probably the spanish or english..

Same as u guys, only 200 years later... U know, I started to put it in, but didn't... lol

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL I was thinking the same thing ... probably the spanish or english..

The United Kingdom.

CMC shows a low, GFS shows a system, ECMWF shows a system. NOGAPS was showing a system IIRC but dropped it.

Quoting Inactivity:
Wind shear won't be a problem

Couldnt fly a kite in that wind... lol

very impressive wave with a 1006mb low. there is a small pocket of 20 knots of wind shear ahead of the system. to the south is a small anti cyclone. provided that the wave can mentain the convection the way ahead appears favourable for continued development. the only hindrance is the sal to its north but that is forecast to disperse during the next few days. if the system holds it will track mainly due west, on the southern periphery othe strong high to its north. this could be the start of an early cape verde season

Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC shows a low, GFS shows a system, ECMWF shows a system. NOGAPS was showing a system IIRC but dropped it.

NOGAPS did show a system but now just leaves this wave that just emerged off of Africa along the coast and just kills it slowly. It does develop its usual system in the SW Caribbean though.

if pre-97L get a ULH on it shear should not be a pooblem

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
at the moment pre-97L will go well if this pattern continues we could be looking at a Ivan the terible track storm

lets not get carried away with the track stuff
this got 14 hrs to persist over open water lets wait till it gets its feet wet
organization is there persistence will be the key
wait watch see

Bahamas are like Canada and is part of the Commonwealth. (ie The good guys)

re. 229... as I was thinking earlier, that Twave at 37W [eyeballed] is pulling ITCZ north w/ it. (I am assuming in response to the high weakening along that edge?) Sure does make it a bit easier for the newly emerged wave to move west...

Quoting atmoaggie:

Actually caught up to average on nados, almost. And that average is a 5 year average, skewed by 2008's numbers.



Actually very near the 50th percentile when considering a longer term record and excluding 2008:

As soon as the El Nino faded away, the Severe (Tornado) Season took off with a vengeance. And if next spring is a neutral or La Nina year, things will be very ugly in the Tornado department.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Same as u guys, only 200 years later... U know, I started to put it in, but didn't... lol

Hmmm.. seems kinda strange its only 37yrs ago. kinda sad... so are you old enough to know the before?

The AOI will continue westward motion into a pocket of 20 knot shear, once it passes this area shear is favorable for development, in the 5-10 knot threshold.

Quoting Orcasystems:
Bahamas are like Canada and is part of the Commonwealth. (ie The good guys)

TYVM.... [Shakes clasped hands over head in victory salute] And we didn't have 2 fight as hard... UK were practically GIVING away colonies in the late 60s.... lol

Quoting Bordonaro:


As soon as the El Nino faded away, the Severe (Tornado) Season took off with a vengeance. And if next spring is a neutral or La Nina year, things will be very ugly in the Tornado department.

Yep. Locally, for you guys, this season picked up in the plains after your usual time for peak severe WX activity, April to early May. Most of the gains back to almost normal levels have been, geographically, to your north.

Upper Divergence



Lower Convergence

hey MH09 can you post that link to that Sat if you can the loop would be nice Thanks

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey MH09 can you post that link to that Sat if you can the loop would be nice Thanks

Sat24 or Ramsdis?

Quoting BahaHurican:
TYVM.... [Shakes clasped hands over head in victory salute] And we didn't have 2 fight as hard... UK were practically GIVING away colonies in the late 60s.... lol

We didn't have to fight either :)
Other then the odd skirmish with our southern neighbours... we would rather BBQ & drink :)

Quoting LPstormspotter2:


Hmmm.. seems kinda strange its only 37yrs ago. kinda sad... so are you old enough to know the before?

Yeah, I was there the night the Union Jack was lowered for the last time and the first time the black, gold and aquamarine was hoisted... very emotional moment, even though I was 2 young to understand everything that was going on...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The AOI will continue westward motion into a pocket of 20 knot shear, once it passes this area shear is favorable for development, in the 5-10 knot threshold.

If you look at post 220,the map shows that it is already starting to move out of the pocket,however that vertical shear map is 10 hours old(as of 06z).

this situation looks very interesting. coditions after 24 hrs will gradually improve
and with the continuing forecast west track the islands of the lesser antilles should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance

Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Locally, for you guys, this season picked up in the plains after your usual time for peak severe WX activity, April to early May. Most of the gains back to almost normal levels have been, geographically, to your north.

True, but we usually pay dearly for these quiet Tornado Season's here in North Texas, wither later this year during the fall months or early in 2011 from late Feb-Mid June.