Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting xcool:
wow on cmc

The GFS....NGP and the CMC all do the same thing in the Caribbean....only real difference in the end is the GFS transfers all the energy back into the Developing System in the Pacific......very interesting run on 3 major models.......something coming to watch there in the the SW Caribbean ......i would almost bet on.

hold up ngp too woww

ECMWF,come

Quoting xcool:
hold up ngp too woww

Yeppers......NGP TOO!

The GFS also.....but then a few hours later...the energy jumps into the Pacific......

IFIF HAPPENS Invest 97L BE HERE ON JULY 15 ,,

Again here is the CMC.....WOW! Something is gonna form down there the odds are in favor of at least if you follow the Models which i do...

Quoting xcool:
IFIF HAPPENS Invest 97L BE HERE ON JULY 15 ,,

JULY 15th is not a very good day for ME!

home brew

TampaSpin why

Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin why

Now that is a test for you to figure out...LOL....i am goin to bed.....don't stay up too late....NITE xcool.....your a good friend!

TampaSpin thanks..

058
TCNA21 RJTD 120600
CCAA 12060 47644 CONSON(1002) 02141 11293 13144 230// 92613=

TS CONSON (1002) System #2
14.1N 129.3E
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

---
intensifying

Lets see what the ECMWF says, if its on board with a Caribbean system like the other models are indicating we'll have something to watch.

3 models so far..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM CONSON (T1002)
15:00 PM JST July 12 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Seas East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Conson (994 hPa) located at 14.1N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.7N 125.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.1N 121.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.5N 117.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

I'll trust ECMWF and GFS over NOGAPS (Nice, but Only Good At Pretending Skill) and CMC (Constantly Making Cyclones) any day.

Quoting KarenRei:
I'll trust ECMWF and GFS over NOGAPS (Nice, but Only Good At Pretending Skill) and CMC (Constantly Making Cyclones) any day.

Aye.

Though even then, I generally don't trust them beyond a week.

An excellent photo animation of the damage Hurricane Alex did to Monterrey
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-470359

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL STORM CONSON (T1002)
18:00 PM JST July 12 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Seas East Of The Philippines

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Conson (992 hPa) located at 14.2N 128.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.9N 124.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 17.1N 121.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 18.5N 117.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
TROPICAL STORM "BASYANG" (CONSON)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
==============================================

Tropical Storm "BASYANG" has intensified further as it moves towards Northern Luzon Area.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Basyang located at 14.3°N 128.7°E or 440 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings #1
=======================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela Aurora
3.Quezon
4.Polillo Island
5.Camarines Norte
6.Catanduanes

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Morning Ike, stopped by to check in and see if we had any weather issues. Hope y'all have a good day and stay cool. Supposed to be a hot one. See ya tomorrow.

Atlantic Remains Tranquil
Jul 12, 2010 4:47 AM

The combination of strong wind shear along with a large expanse of African Dust mixed in with the air over the Atlantic is keeping any areas from organizing or developing.

A very weak wave near 38 west between 8 north and 15 north is moving east around 15 mph. Another wave is pushing into Central America near 86 west between 17 north and 11 north. Neither of these areas show any organization as they are both lacking low-level circulation and favorable environmental conditions. Otherwise, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is very quiet and will be into midweek.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Justin Povick

Good morning from tropical sweating Germany, visited by some severe weather. In my town (Mainz) we are still longing for it (at least for some rain and cooling).



Moreover I'm very glad the oil repairing operations in the Gulf can move on. Good luck!

Quoting IKE:
Atlantic Remains Tranquil
Jul 12, 2010 4:47 AM

The combination of strong wind shear along with a large expanse of African Dust mixed in with the air over the Atlantic is keeping any areas from organizing or developing.

A very weak wave near 38 west between 8 north and 15 north is moving east around 15 mph. Another wave is pushing into Central America near 86 west between 17 north and 11 north. Neither of these areas show any organization as they are both lacking low-level circulation and favorable environmental conditions. Otherwise, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic is very quiet and will be into midweek.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Justin Povick

goodd morning. off to work now, check back at 6:00 since nothing tropical going on, yet.....

Morning Ike, Hope you have a great day, heading to Cape Cod today, will check back tonight

Quoting bassis:
Morning Ike, Hope you have a great day, heading to Cape Cod today, will check back tonight

Hope you have a great day too....and good morning msgambler.

Good Morning All

I see the models are teasing us with the possibility something new to watch! It's already cloudy here, so no beach trip for me today, although I can swim through the humidity in the yard. Even the dogs don't want to say out this morning.

Morning everyone... Thanks to Grothar I know how to post an image... any know how to post a loop? you can wunder email to me.. if you dont mind. Thanks

g'morning WU-BLoggers worldwide.

Ike- after 60% on saturday, 80% on sunday- heavy rains predicted, I might add- I ended up with 0.12 inches of rain.

grumble, grumble....

Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-BLoggers worldwide.

Ike- after 60% on saturday, 80% on sunday- heavy rains predicted, I might add- I ended up with 0.12 inches of rain.

grumble, grumble....

And I had 5.23 inches yesterday in a two-hour time period.

Good Morning/Evening

Thanks Dr. Carver, for filling in.

Anyone have an idea when Dr. Masters is coming back from vacation?

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Anyone have an idea when Dr. Masters is coming back from vacation?

Should be this morning w/a new blog.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

Quoting IKE:


Should be this morning w/a new blog.

Thanks Ike

Looks like that wave off africa is gaining a bit of convection

Quoting IKE:


And I had 5.23 inches yesterday in a two-hour time period.

that's a lot. I'd be glad for all that here.

Looks like that wave off africa is gaining a bit of convection

did someone already add Africaster to the list?

Quoting aquak9:
Looks like that wave off africa is gaining a bit of convection

did someone already add Africaster to the list?

now now.... I didnt say it will be a cat 5 by the next two or anything.. Just some convection...

LOL morning aquak

However I do like the term... Africaster...

I guess Capecaster would also need to be added. LOL

Top of the morning to you all.....

And how is our easterly wave this a.m.? It that low still up near 20N???

doom-caster.
wish-caster.
fish-caster.
bust-caster.
awhile-caster.
quiet-caster.
it's-too-late-caster.
delaying-the-inevitable-caster.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N23W TO 8N22W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS POSITIONED FARTHER WWD THAN EXPECTED DUE TO SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM SAL CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INDICATING THAT THE
WAVE HAD JUST PASSED. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO SEEN IN THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-21W...FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N42W TO 4N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
AND ASSOCIATED DUST...CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS S OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N79W TO 7N81W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER AND A LARGE AREA OF DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO
THE ERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...DUE TO A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 74W-83W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N87W ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE E
PACIFIC TO NEAR 7N88W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 83W-88W. MORE CONVECTION IS IN THE EPAC. SEE TWDEP FOR
MORE DETAILS.

ITZAcaster?..lol

Typecaster------ one who predicts the hurricane, TS, TD or even undeveloped L is going the same place any historical storm went... lol