Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
I vote for other factor we don't know. The MJO for me is just another indicator of increased activity, and that IMO suggests increased potential for TC formation, other things being favorable.

I'm kinda hopin' this newest wx breed we see popping up in here (from Mr. Canglialosi on down) will help us to move to the next level, both in clycogenesis and intensity forecasting. :o)



A must read to keep up with the current state of the art is the Hurricane Research Divisions 2010 Hurricane Field Program Plan. Along with the actual research that will be conducted this summer, it briefly goes into the theory and/or current understanding related to tropical cyclones. For example many people equate SAL = Dust, but it is much more than that.

Excerpt from the doc:

SAL outbreaks typically move westward off the western coast of North Africa every 3-5 days during the summer months. There are several characteristics of these frequent outbreaks that can act to suppress Atlantic TC formation:

1) The SAL contains dry, stable air that can diminish local convection by promoting convectively driven downdrafts in the TC environment;

2) The SAL contains a mid-level easterly jet that can significantly increase the local vertical wind shear. The low-level circulations of TCs under the influence of this jet tend to race out ahead of their mid and upper-level convection, decoupling the storm and weakening it;

3) Mineral dust suspended within the SAL absorbs solar energy and subsequently releases longwave infrared energy. These thermal emissions act to warm the SAL and can re-enforce the tropical inversion that already exists in the tropical North Atlantic. This warming helps to stabilize the environment and also limits vertical mixing through the SAL, allowing it to maintain its distinctive low humidity for extended periods of time (several days) and over long distances (1000s of km). Recent studies also suggest that mineral dust may impact the formation of clouds in both the ambient tropical and tropical cyclone environments. Data from previous studies have indicated that the particle size of the SAL’s suspended mineral typically ranges from 0.4 - 40 μm;

Objectives: The main objectives of SALEX are to:

• Better understand how the SAL’s dry air, mid-level easterly jet, and suspended mineral dust affect Atlantic TC intensity change;

• Include the moisture information from the GPS dropwindsondes in operational parallel runs of the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The impact of this data on the GFS (and GFDL) initial/forecast humidity fields and its forecasts of TC track and intensity will be assessed;

• Investigate the representation of the SAL’s temperature structure, low- to mid-level dry air, and embedded easterly jet in the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF-X models compared to GPS dropsonde data;

• Investigate the relationship between vertical distributions of dust detected by the DWL and temperature profiles/anomalies captured by collocated GPS dropsonde (pending P-3 DWL availability);
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Quoting Bordonaro:

They are computer models, unfortunately, they do not pick up every feature. They seem to want to develop those "phantom storms" also.


Felix in 2007 is a great example of a phantom storm!
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Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)!

Yeah, fights n all. (Keeper, Skyepony, PressLord, Taz, good grief!...thinking of all the people on here who contribute so much reminds me of when I was a kid and saying my prayers, the list would just go on and on ...)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date.



GFS attempts to develop this wave at 48 hours. ECMWF develops the wave in the middle of that picture.
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Link SAL
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Welcome to Weather Underground. I have been a blogging here for about 1 year now. I have learned so much from this team of bloggers. There are many great folks on here. I consider them a "part of my family".

Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)!


Thank you much. Been getting the new house hurricane ready. It came with PGT hurricane windows but we still need a new rated gargage door and a couple of doors covered with acordions but they are on order. Generator is the next item!
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Quoting Drakoen:


The models forecast for the TUTT to remain mainly north of 20N

Thanks Drak. The tropical wave is very robust, it may be our first CV storm of the year.
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Quoting StormW:


That's Senior Chief!


ROFL, Storm. Or, in Navy speak, just Senior! Might be why the L&M was so glad for the last promotion, LOL - just got tired of the nickame!
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Quoting Drakoen:
It is actually somewhat puzzling why the models don't pick up this. The Saharan Air Layer is seen to be well north of the AOI.

They are computer models, unfortunately, they do not pick up every feature. They seem to want to develop those "phantom storms" also.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

In your opinion, do you believe this wave may survive it's encounter with the TUTT Low over the W ATL?


The models forecast for the TUTT to remain mainly north of 20N
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning reed. Looks like the "reedlow" will be a salvation to the overheated ranks of the NE US coastline.... did u notice the latest wave off Africa?


Yep, very impressive wave, looks like it will just miss the SAL and will have a good chance for development until it gets to around 50W. The TUTT low is pretty strong. We'll have to see what happens, maybe it won't be THAT quiet this weekend into the next week.
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Quoting SarasotaRepub:
Morning everyone.

New member, I'm in Sarasota,FL east of Siesta Key. Look forward to posting with all of you.

SR

Welcome to Weather Underground. I have been a blogging here for about 1 year now. I have learned so much from this team of bloggers. There are many great folks on here. I consider them a "part of my family".

Please feel free to ask questions or to make a comment. We are like a big "honking" weather family! Sorry Chicklet :o)!
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Quoting reedzone:
Morning everyone, the Reed Low didn't get absorbed as the models showed, I see a nice circulation south of Cape Code, still NON-TROPICAL, if this has about 2-3 more days in the Gulf Current, I'd say a Subtropical would form. Looks like we will be quiet in the Atlantic and the Pacific for a week or so. I have a feeling our next storm will form near Africa.
Morning reed. Looks like the "reedlow" will be a salvation to the overheated ranks of the NE US coastline.... did u notice the latest wave off Africa?
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting StormW:


He has a B.S. and M.S. in meteorology.


I thought he only had a B.S. from Rutgers
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Quoting hydrus:
East of Africa? Where is it, in the Indian Ocean?
I guess thats the Indian Ocean? LOL, I dont know that part of the world very well. This wave looks like it will start going over the E side of Africa in a couple of days.
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It is actually somewhat puzzling why the models don't pick up this. The Saharan Air Layer is seen to be well north of the AOI.
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Link Great loop to see the wave off the African coast...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date.

Was about to say the imagery I saw earlier made it look a lot healthier (more curve?) than others I've seen at that location so far this season.
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting Drakoen:
Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date.



Has favorable conditions until it hits the TUTT around 48W, very interesting.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date.

That wave will help wipe out the dust and increase the moisture field inn the MDR...I think.
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Morning everyone, the Reed Low didn't get absorbed as the models showed, I see a nice circulation south of Cape Code, still NON-TROPICAL, if this has about 2-3 more days in the Gulf Current, I'd say a Subtropical would form. Looks like we will be quiet in the Atlantic and the Pacific for a week or so. I have a feeling our next storm will form near Africa.
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Quoting hydrus:
I bet you did work hard..God bless you.:)

Believe me, the Bordonaro family, we could have had our own TV Reality show!!

It would have been called, "Welcome to the Jungle"! Ratings would have been fantastic. It definitely would have not been a "Brady Bunch" or "Eight is Enough" sequel!!
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Probably the most agressive wave we have seen to date.

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Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Anyone have any thoughts on the huge wave East of Africa?
East of Africa? Where is it, in the Indian Ocean?
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Morning everyone.

New member, I'm in Sarasota,FL east of Siesta Key. Look forward to posting with all of you.

SR
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Quoting Drakoen:
Satelllite imagery off the African coast suggests that convection is steadily on the increase over the lower to mid level cyclonic center as the disturbance moves towards the west. Cimss shows shear betwen 10-20knots which is marginally conducive for development. Cimss products also revealed the wave is located in area of upper level divergence and low level convergence. The 06z analysis showed a CAPE around 2,200. The wave should be monitored for development as it progresses through the eastern Atlantic.

In your opinion, do you believe this wave may survive it's encounter with the TUTT Low over the W ATL?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Age is a wonderful thing sometimes! My 23 yr old daughter gets insulted when I don't remember certain events from her childhood. I raised 5 kids, worked very hard and we cannot remember everything!
I bet you did work hard..God bless you.:)
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Satelllite imagery off the African coast suggests that convection is steadily on the increase over the lower to mid level cyclonic center as the disturbance moves towards the west. Cimss shows shear betwen 10-20knots which is marginally conducive for development. Cimss products also revealed the wave is located in area of upper level divergence and low level convergence. The 06z analysis showed a CAPE around 2,200. The wave should be monitored for development as it progresses through the eastern Atlantic.
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Quoting zoomiami:


AGREED- the blog is not two or three personalities - its the combined total of all. Everyone (except trolls) adds to the knowledge and forecasting, and first hand experiences we would have no other way of knowing. We should celebrate those who post, and share and quit trying to make them all into the same mold. How boring that would be.

I agree 100%. I appreciate everyone here, except the trolls!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Beell is also awesome, and Atmoaggie is awesome also, how could I forget them? DUH, maybe it's age, I am approaching 49!
Nah, it's just we have a lot of darn good wx bloggers on here. The combination of age, experience, knowledge, youth, enthusiasm, and just plain intuition makes us pretty special...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Goodmorning, Anyone have any thoughts on the huge wave East of Africa?
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137. IKE
Quoting GettySquare:
Ikster?


LOL.

weatherguy03....you do a good job explaining things.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting BahaHurican:
Here we go with the personalities.

There are a lot of very sophisticated wx bloggers here. I certainly wouldn't make such a list w/out kmanislander, Drakoen, or futuremet, and there are at least a 1/2 or more others whose comments are precise and well-grounded. Some, like nash and KarenRei, don't post in here as often as they used to. I think pple need to give a little more respect to each other where it's due.

And it's certainly due on this blog. Last year I made a comment about the collective knowledge, experience, and intuition of quality bloggers in the tropical blog being equal to NHC, and I think my statement is true. Granted, it takes us 100 bloggers to their 10 experts, but given the individual lack of qualifications / wx experience, Wunderbloggers do remarkably well at forecasting cyclogenesis, forecast tracks, and intensity tracks for ATL systems. This doesn't mean I think one should abandon NHC and place trust in Wunderblogging amateur mets. But as a group we are on the ball, and we are looking at NHC for confirmation of our findings rather than simply sitting and waiting to hear what their pontifications from on high will be. Amazingly, our observations are usually very similar to theirs.

Finally, we have bloggers who are willing to "push the edge of the envelope" so to speak. I'm thinking about pple who get bashed on a regular basis for not being "right" [most recently reedzone and TampaSpin come to mind, but there are many others]. These bloggers say what they think and conscientiously attempt to justify their thinking with the available wx data. Sometimes, even when everybody else thinks they are wrong, they turn out to be right. This quality of the blog, to express different viewpoints w/ justification, is IMO one of its best qualities and one that makes this IMO the best wx blog on the net. Sure it gets wild in here at times, but the heart of this blog is solid, focused, and very often on the money when it comes to tropical forecasting and analysis. [We even have some small-scale researching going on from time to time ... lol]

We tend to be very critical of the blog, and with good reason - we want it to be better and better, not worse over time. OTOH, I believe some credit is due to the various members from all parts of the basin [did I see someone from Buenos Aires post this a.m.?] and other parts of the world [waves at Aussie and barb] who make this blog the useful and thought provoking place it is.


AGREED- the blog is not two or three personalities - its the combined total of all. Everyone (except trolls) adds to the knowledge and forecasting, and first hand experiences we would have no other way of knowing. We should celebrate those who post, and share and quit trying to make them all into the same mold. How boring that would be.
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Quoting Chicklit:
One of my personal faves is Drakoen.
He is knowledgeable; keeps it short, to the point, and ego is not the first thing you notice.
I agree with you Baha.
We watch the wisps and the big time activity.
There's plenty of things to criticize but what's the sense? It is what it is. That is true of many things...might as well find the joy in the journey! For it will be all over someday lol and then every breath will seem precious.
Anyway, I did finally get all my hurricane stuff together yesterday, including batteries for my mother's flashlights and a couple of new blue tarps in case the roof comes off this year.
This is so true! I hope u don't need those tarps, though.

Right now the worst part of this waiting is being fairly sure SOMEbody's going to get wiped this season, and not knowing who, or even if u are just being overly paranoid....

Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
There are numerous extremely talented bloggers here. My sincere apology if I have left anyone out.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting wave off the Africa coast. Windsat caught the western portion of the broad low level circulation associated with the wave



Looks like 7 to 8 N, eh?
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Quoting Floodman:


Congratulations, brother! Hey, it's all downhill from here

Wait, let me put on my crash helmet, shin guards, chest protector, shoulder pads and other various sorts of body part protectors. Oh, and I cannot forget my Centrum Silver and Geritol :o)!!
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Baha even with the upward pulse of the MJO we are not seeing much in the way of storms. So the question belays this: What is the true pulse of the storms, the MJO or another factor we do not know?
I vote for other factor we don't know. The MJO for me is just another indicator of increased activity, and that IMO suggests increased potential for TC formation, other things being favorable.

I'm kinda hopin' this newest wx breed we see popping up in here (from Mr. Canglialosi on down) will help us to move to the next level, both in clycogenesis and intensity forecasting. :o)
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting Bordonaro:

Ha, ha, ha!! From the 48 yr old side, I will be 49 next Friday :o)!!


Congratulations, brother! Hey, it's all downhill from here
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126. IKE
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
It is always nice when Weatherguy03 posts on here. He has been pretty accurate in predicting total named storms, hurricanes, & major hurricanes over the past few years. He is also pretty good at predicting where something is headed. Welcome back WG03!



He does do a good job. I like hearing what he thinks.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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