Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Typecaster------ one who predicts the hurricane, TS, TD or even undeveloped L is going the same place any historical storm went... lol

I guess the host of this blog would be MASTERCASTER... LOL

What the CMC is showing in the 00z run is making sense to me. It develops a system in the SW Caribbean. Then this system get pushed to the north by a ridge placed over Honduras. This ridge is just prone to develop with the increasing heat and relaxation of trade winds. So from the looks of it, anything developing in the SW Caribbean will be headed into the Yucatan or the straights. Another thing to note is that the B/A high is beginning to set in. From what I see at 144 hours, any Cape Verde system will be steering towards the S.E. US.

PSU e-WALL forecasted steering - 144 hours
*Look all the way in the bottom left hand corner where it says "Shallow Layer Steering".



CMC 00z - 144 hours

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
I guess the host of this blog would be MASTERCASTER... LOL

And everybodies favorite troll is the master baiter??
LNL

Quoting Jeff9641:
I would watch near the Bahamas over the next several days for possible developement as a trough is continuing to linger in that region. This trough could cause for something to spin up.

The NAM @ 4n hrs. shows some support for this supposition....

I know , it's the NAM, but got to have something to look at - LOL!!

Guess that makes me a NAMcaster!

Quoting DestinJeff:
I can't believe they are opening a Wal*Mart in the middle of the Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa:

I thought it was a Target

I would begin to start looking into the SW Caribbean after the 132 hour time-frame.

OhForTheLoveOfGod-Caster??

anyone- what does LNL mean?

I'd rather spend my day being a shrimpnet-caster.

Thanks for the smile, earthlydragonfly. Whoa that is WAY too long to type- d'fly? EDF?

what do we call you?

Quoting Jeff9641:


Also developes a low in the Bahamas and pushes it into S FL.

Telling from steering, anything forming in the Atlantic will be pushed towards the S.E US. Oh well, we'll see what happens. Be back this afternoon.

Quoting mfaria101:
OhForTheLoveOfGod-Caster??

Quoting aquak9:
anyone- what does LNL mean?

I'd rather spend my day being a shrimpnet-caster.

Thanks for the smile, earthlydragonfly. Whoa that is WAY too long to type- d'fly? EDF?

what do we call you?

Mark is fine. My kids came up with the handle 5 years ago.. My main internet handle is Shockpic since I take lightning photos... Wish I could change it.

Trolling..fishing casting bait to the quite waters of the blog.....

wow, blog died...

Mark?? That's like the scene from monty python's holy grail, where they meet the great wizard and he says "you can call me.... Tim."

Sorry, it's goona be EDF or d'fly for me.

LNL???

Quoting aquak9:
Mark?? That's like the scene from monty python's holy grail, where they meet the great wizard and he says "you can call me.... Tim."

Sorry, it's goona be EDF or d'fly for me.

LNL???

Is it "Lock 'N Load"?

Morning all.

Well, it looks like Conson is strengthening more rapidly than expected already. I wonder how strong this will actually get. I'm going to say 105 mph.

Quoting IKE:


Is it "Lock 'N Load"?

ok, that'll work. I remember when someone had to explain ROFLMAO to me. Sigh....

Quoting Jeff9641:


Forget that right now I would watch and area in the eastern Bahamas for developement as this trough that has been plaguing you may try to spin up a low.

I was looking at that. I'm still more worried about that trough acting like a cat3+ magnet when the CV season does get started. And despite the fact that pple are saying that current EATL wave won't amount to anything, I'm pretty concerned about it "hiding out" until it gets closer to our parts, then spinning up.

Morning all! I picked a good time to squeeze vacation in. Seems after Alex things got QUIET save for TD2 (non event). Looks like things are getting ripe again though, eh? Anyone care to list conditions necessary for TC development and their current status? (favorable/unfavorable)

Actually if any credibility can be given to the NAM for tropical forecasting, it's in scenarios like this, with a trough/cutoff low working down to something subtropical...

Quoting DestinJeff:
Ike, I blame you and your posting of the "nothing through..." models for the Blog's demise!

Sorry:(

I've read crown weather's take and listened to weatherguy03's....nothing much going on.

Just wait til......could be August.

Lewd "n" Liscivious?

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Morning all! I picked a good time to squeeze vacation in. Seems after Alex things got QUIET save for TD2 (non event). Looks like things are getting ripe again though, eh? Anyone care to list conditions necessary for TC development and their current status? (favorable/unfavorable)

Hey stranger! good to see u around... only two areas we are watching w/ any degree of seriousness.... 1 a tropical wave just getting out into the ATL at abt 18W.... 2 an area of troughiness N and E of the Bahamas, which has been more or less there for a couple weeks now. Not much potential in either for the time being....

I really like that CrownWeather was able to take the whole weekend off, and won't post an update till Wednesday. That ROCKS.

Good Morning..........Nothing out there in the short term per the models which is a good thing and the ITCZ still lowriding for the time being; just dealing with 94% humidity in the Florida Panhandle this morning.....Back to Lurk Mode.

Quoting aquak9:
Mark?? That's like the scene from monty python's holy grail, where they meet the great wizard and he says "you can call me.... Tim."

Sorry, it's goona be EDF or d'fly for me.

LNL???

I've been using EDF for ages.... and u should check out his lightning photos.... fantastic stuff.... very inspirational.

BTW, EDF, R u still doing the photo stuff? I got some good advice from u a couple years ago.

One subtle difference showing up in the the last couple runs of the GFS model that is worth a mention imo.

The wave we have been watching off Africa this weekend as well as the one behind it maintain a fairly strong signature in the model all the way across. And at a higher latitude that what we have seen. Along or even N of 20N.

The first wave showing up N of Puerto Rico this weekend or the beginning of next week. Upper level environment still looks a little iffy with the base of the TUTT in the vicinity and very strong upper ridging over the SE and extending out in to the western Atlantic.

Second wave right on its heels in the same general area. Both of these waves will probably be making the Atlantic crossing in stealth mode due to the dry air and dust over most of the Atlantic MDR. They both should come alive in the vicinity of the TUTT base with increased divergence aloft.

Something to watch this week but no reason for panic yet. SW Caribbean also continues to look active this weekend with a monsoonal gyre setting up over Central America.

I enjoy your video and yellow circle!!
You did not discuss the convection east of the Bahamas...does that area have potemtial?

Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update w/ Video

Quoting DestinJeff:


once August gets here there won't be any more excuses. which reminds me ...

WaituntilAugustSeptember-caster

LOL...there ya go!

Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL WAS NOT USED DAY SEVEN MON 19 JUL AS IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHICH TRACKS TO THE PANHANDLE. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT IN WHAT HAS BEEN A QUIET TROPICAL PATTERN.

Hope it stays that way.


Preliminary Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND OUTGOING LONG WAVE
RADIATION ANALYSIS...AS A DIAGNOSTIC OF MJO ACTIVITY...SHOWS
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MODELS SPLIT ON HOW THE PATTERN
IS GOING TO EVOLVE...WITH THE EWP SHOWING A STRONG BIAS IN FAVOR
OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES (CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT)...WHILE THE CFS AND
GFS BOTH TREND TOWARDS A STRONG DIVERGENT PATTERN TO
DEVELOP...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC/CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS HAS BEEN THE
TYPICAL PATTERN THUS FAR.

Quoting aquak9:
I really like that CrownWeather was able to take the whole weekend off, and won't post an update till Wednesday. That ROCKS.

It's so slow that.....or....

It's-so-slow-caster.

Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Other. My favorite weather is severe lake effect snow. Love it!!!

I might like that too. Here in deep South Texas, any type of snow is a very rare thing, maybe once every 25 years.

Best current discussion on the Caribbean right now with a nice dose of MJO:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
636 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER LEVELS THE MODELS INITIALIZE A TUTT WITH AXIS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...INTO THE
BASIN TO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HAITI/NORTH OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO A BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. BUT AS IN PREVIOUS CASES...THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS ANOTHER TUTT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN BY MID
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE PERTURBATION SEEMS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE TUTT ALOFT...WITH GENERAL TENDENCY TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO LATER TOMORROW.

AT 850/700 HPA...THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH ONE TODAY TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND ANOTHER DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE PERIOD THE LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
RETAIN THEIR EASTERLY COMPONENT...WITH MINOR MODULATION AS THE WAVES STREAM ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY...HOWEVER...IS TO
PERSIST AT 25-30KT DURING THE CYCLE. THE WINDS ARE SURPRISINGLY STRONGER ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE OPPOSITE TENDS TO BE THE NORTH. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ON ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TUTT...THE PATTERN WILL GROW MORE PERTURBED/AMPLIFIED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT VALUE WILL REMAIN AT 30-35MM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO HELP FUEL SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO). DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BECOME DOMINANT FROM WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A
WETTER/MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS WE ENTER THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

THE 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION ANALYSIS...AS A DIAGNOSTIC OF MJO ACTIVITY...SHOWS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MODELS SPLIT ON HOW THE PATTERN IS GOING TO EVOLVE...WITH THE EWP SHOWING A STRONG BIAS IN FAVOR OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES (CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT)...WHILE THE CFS AND
GFS BOTH TREND TOWARDS A STRONG DIVERGENT PATTERN TO DEVELOP...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC/CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS HAS BEEN THE TYPICAL PATTERN THUS FAR.

I would not be suprise if 2010 seasons does not live up to expectation not saying it not going be active but dont think it will come close to 2005

Quoting BahaHurican:
I've been using EDF for ages.... and u should check out his lightning photos.... fantastic stuff.... very inspirational.

BTW, EDF, R u still doing the photo stuff? I got some good advice from u a couple years ago.

Yes I am still shooting.. Not as much as I like but with 4 kids and a business there just is priorities. Thanks for the compliment

Quoting ackee:
I would not be suprise if 2010 seasons does not live up to expectation not saying it not going be active but dont think it will come close to 2005

Not close already if you judge by the begining of the season; 5 storms by this time in 2005 but that does not mean that we could not have a flurry of storms in September to November.....It's a wait and see.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey stranger! good to see u around... only two areas we are watching w/ any degree of seriousness.... 1 a tropical wave just getting out into the ATL at abt 18W.... 2 an area of troughiness N and E of the Bahamas, which has been more or less there for a couple weeks now. Not much potential in either for the time being....

Mornin Baha! Thanks for the warm greeting and update!