Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StormW:
Morning Drak!

Morning StormW!

It is really amazing how much amplitude these wave have; they are creating large perturbations within the AEJ.

The SAL sure did a number on that TW off the Africa coast. A good lesson was shown of how the SAL can break down any system and even if it's a little N of the convection. It doesn't matter if it's a forming TD with a COC or a TW. As long as you have a spin it will pull that dry air in. 00Z ECMWF says no development for at least another 10 days. On water vapor you can see a major amount of dry air in the Atlantic basin. Enjoy the lull folks. I guess now would be a good time to get supplies and check over your evacuation plans. The meat of the season shall be here soon enough.

Quoting Drakoen:
It is really amazing how much amplitude these wave have; they are creating large perturbations within the AEJ.

Dats a lot of momentum Drak..

re-loaded SAL 5-day JAVA Movie N Atlantic

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and it was said that that wave was to go poof last night and this moring well I don't see it poofing I I got a feeling that we won't see this one go poof

Lots of alliteration from precocious posters

La Nina is strengthening

Poofage is a delicate thing...

Esp when Parachuting from a C-130

I don't know if anyone posted this yet, but it appears most of the tarballs recently recovered on Galveston did not come from DWH:

Link

HOUSTON—New laboratory test results released Friday showed that most of the tar balls that washed up on Texas shores during the past week were not from the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the Coast Guard said.

Officials had initially said on Monday that the tar balls that were rolling up over the weekend on Galveston and other Texas Gulf shorelines were from the BP-operated Deepwater Horizon rig that blew up April 20, killing 11 people and causing an oil spill that has yet to be controlled. Now, the Coast Guard said only tar balls found Monday were from the rig.

The tar ball sightings in Texas, and the news that it had originated from the BP well, created a stir because it had been the only Gulf state untouched by the oil spill.

From the beginning, officials were perplexed by what they called "the weathering" of the tar balls, saying it was inconsistent with oil that had traveled 400 miles. They speculated the oil had not arrived with the currents or naturally, but may have been carried in by a vessel.

On Tuesday, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said officials were investigating five vessels that may have carried the oil to Texas.

Coast Guard spokesman Petty Officer Richard Brahm said the confusion resulted from a mistake made at a lab in Houma, La.

"It turns out that almost all the tar balls are not BP," Brahm said.

The more accurate test results arrived Friday from a Coast Guard lab in Virginia, Brahm said.

The tar balls that are from the Gulf oil spill were found Monday on McFaddin Beach, a stretch of coast east of Texas’ Bolivar Peninsula.

All oil has a distinct DNA of chemicals and the government has a database of the different oils in the reservoirs where drilling and production is going on. Further testing should be able to help officials figure out the origin of the tar balls in Texas, Brahm said. If a match is not made, it is likely they are the result of natural seepages from the seabed.

hey stormw please look at my comment # 2582

let me repost it

Ok guys take a look at these images and look between the CV Is. and Africa

06Z yesterday



06Z today



and look at it in motion



seem that the SAL is backing away from the Tropical waves

FEMA Montana Declaration

Montana Severe Storms and Flooding

Declared July 10, 2010

The SAL has retro-graded along with this particular wave but still no guarantees that it will develop into a storm down the road.....I'd like to see how it looks after getting past the CV islands at about 30-35W.

From the LWX morning discussion. Sounds like we'll be getting some welcome rains in the mid-atlantic states courtesy of TD2:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS GETTING CLOSER TO CONSENSUS IN RELATIVELY ROBUST UPR
DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO AREA ON TUE/TUE NGT. SLY FLOW WILL CONT
INCRG LLVL MOISTURE...WHILE APPROACHING SHRTWV TROF LOOKS POISED TO
LIFT UP AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM RMNTS OF TD 2 AND CARRY IT ACRS
MID-ATLC. RESULT WILL BE RICH MOISTURE...WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES.

Quoting Drakoen:
It is really amazing how much amplitude these wave have; they are creating large perturbations within the AEJ.

Okay, I consulted storms blog for the acronym list, and could not find this one listed what is AEJ?

Quoting robert88:
The SAL sure did a number on that TW off the Africa coast. A good lesson was shown of how the SAL can break down any system and even if it's a little N of the convection. It doesn't matter if it's a forming TD with a COC or a TW. As long as you have a spin it will pull that dry air in. 00Z ECMWF says no development for at least another 10 days. On water vapor you can see a major amount of dry air in the Atlantic basin. Enjoy the lull folks. I guess now would be a good time to get supplies and check over your evacuation plans. The meat of the season shall be here soon enough.

Morning, Rob. interesting thing w/ that wave... the associated low was way up near 20N yesterday.... brought some dry air off w/ it... I think that did as much to inhibit formation as anything else. Now the wave is a bit more consolidated near the CVs, I'm going to be watching to see how strong the SAL impacts are. I still don't think this wave is just going to fade, though. I doubt it will spin up right away, but I can see small potential there for it if it hangs on past 45W....

Link

GEM shows a 1004 mb low near Nicaragua in 144 hrs - what you think???

Quoting CybrTeddy:


No you haven't, you just completely ignored my post at 2626. You predicted 2008 would be inactive, and don't go saying your not stormkat, you are, and you've never once been right with your predictions. In fact, I've learned the past few years whatever you say expect the opposite to happen.

And whatever you do, don't ask him about Dean, either...

The Poofcaster

Good morning, looks like we may get more rain in florida today. GOMLoop
What is the spin over florida and what's going on in the Bahamas? Anyone?EasternUSLoop

The COC of 97L will probably reform to the north if the original COC goes into Cuba