Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 08:52 GMT le 10 juillet 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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That's one heck of a wave that just rolled off of Africa; a little below 10 north. Time will tell if it holds together.
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25. jpsb
Quoting IKE:
affecting the Yucatan and northern Mexico/extreme southern Texas in the 10-12 day period. Otherwise, that's it.
Again? Not a good year for south Texas.
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oh ike, I thought it was gonna be weird al yankovic's parody of that song, "I lost on Jepardy"

either way now it's stuck in my head for the day

and I thought you were my friend!
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Ike its either going to be a bust to boom in aug sept and oct or if its a bust altogether, these folks putting out the predicted numbers for a season or all going to be looked at as overhyping fools. what amazes me about this blog is the fact these people will commment 8000 comments on a puff a wind, but a real bonofied disaster that is occurring at the present which is the oil spill they dont want to hardly comment. i especially remember that troll from brownsville texas telling the blog to stop waisting time talking about the oil spill he was more interested in a 15 mph gust of a wind 5000 miles away.The constant obssesion with that kid jfv, they waste 1000's of post on is it him? Well hell he is getting what he wants attention.IM not very smart but I understand it lol. Have a blessed day ike.
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I wish we could fast forward three months and still have no tropical cyclones expected to form for the next several days.

Still, every day that passes is a day closer to the end of the hurricane season. Boredom due to lack of tropical storm formation is a good thing on this tropical chat board.
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Maybe this season isn't going to be a busy as they thought it would be?
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Morning everyone. Hot greetings from Germany. Forecast up to 40°C/104°F in our country. Tomorrow there maybe will be very severe thunderstorm weather at least in the North.


Link

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Quoting IKE:
Wave would have likely been on it's way if not for land. Hope it moves on quickly and doesn't flood that area...



That wave will probably be the next invest, on the East Pacific side. East Pacific TWD

Excerpt:

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND JUST S OF EL SALVADOR TO 11N. WAVE
USHERS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO E PAC AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE ITS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
BEYOND NEXT 48 HRS. STRONG DEEP CONVECTION E SIDE OF WAVE AXIS
PRESENTLY AFFECTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
18. IKE
Wave would have likely been on it's way if not for land. Hope it moves on quickly and doesn't flood that area...

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17. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
SPREADING OVER NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting IKE:
Reading up on seasonal forecasts from the experts, I ran across this...

"On June 21, Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, revised his earlier forecast to predict that 18 to 21 named storms will occur in the 2010 hurricane season, four of which are expected to occur during July. The revised forecast expects five or six of the named storms to be hurricanes. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/33013/bastardi-ups-hurricane-season.asp12 Bastardi's original forecast called for 16 to 18 names storms."........


6Z GFS/parallel is hardly showing one through July 26th. I think your 4 storms in July is in jeopardy Joe.


CMC's ensemble is a little more agressive with a sig Storm entering the eastern Gulf on the 19th.
Link
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15. IKE
Reading up on seasonal forecasts from the experts, I ran across this...

"On June 21, Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, revised his earlier forecast to predict that 18 to 21 named storms will occur in the 2010 hurricane season, four of which are expected to occur during July. The revised forecast expects five or six of the named storms to be hurricanes. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/33013/bastardi-ups-hurricane-season.asp12 Bastardi's original forecast called for 16 to 18 names storms."........


6Z GFS/parallel is hardly showing one through July 26th. I think your 4 storms in July is in jeopardy Joe.
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Good morning. Looks like the east coast is going to get wet. I Pray it's not severe and that the Rio goes down fast. Off to work. I'll check back later
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Quoting Wots:
Good morning!
Occasional poster, lurker for years...

Water in Texas, oil in the Gulf...used to be otherwise. It´s sad.

greetings from Buenos Aires, have a good day!


That's got to be quote of the day - might be the month
I laughed.... through my tears :*)

OIL is not Well in the Gomex - glad to see a break in the weather.... how long will this breather last?
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12. IKE
San Juan,PR discussion talks about a wave affecting them now and then....

"AFTER THE WAVE LITTLE IS SEEN IN THE WAY OF STRONG TRIGGERS. THE
TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RETURN IN A WEAKER FORM NEXT WEEK. THE NAM
PLACES IT FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH DOWN PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD AND A LITTLE
WEAKER. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT WAVE
PASSAGE...WHICH AT THE MOMENT DOES NOT SEEM TOO IMPRESSIVE.
CONVECTION IS WEAK. MUCH BETTER CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA NOW AND THIS COULD BE THE WAVE EXPECTED SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THE WAVE AFTER THIS HAS BEEN FODDER FOR TROPICAL STORM
AMPLIFICATION BY THE GFS...BUT THIS TREND IS BECOMING MUCH LESS
PRONOUNCED AND SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT."

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Interim corrections and recalculations edited in on 11July

At the current spill rate, it will be More Fun Than SEVEN ExxonValdezes Day before midnight 12July
(New information and recalculations start about midway down)

"[BritishPetroleum]'s well in the Gulf of Mexico is gushing[...]from 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day, Energy Secretary Stephen Chu and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said today [15June2010]..."

35,000barrels equals 1,470,000gallons. 60,000barrels equals 2,520,000gallons.
Cutting the BlowoutPreventer riser on June3rd increased the flow-rate by up to 20% or 1/5th; ie the post-cut flow rate is at most 6/5ths of the pre-cut flow rate.
Conversely, the pre-cut flow rate was at least 5/6ths of the post-cut flow rate, or ~29,167to50,000barrels(1,225,000to2,100,000gallons) per day.

In 43days2hours15minutes from DeepwaterHorizon's explosion&blowout at 9:45pm21April though midnight3June, (temporarily ignoring the RiserInsertionTubeTool) 100% of that flow spilled into the Gulf for a pre-cut minimum spill rate of ~29,167barrels(1,225,000gallons) per day, leading to a subtotal of ~1,256,901barrels(52,789,844gallons) spilled. Subtracting the 22,000barrels(924,000gallons) collected by the RITT, a total minimum of ~1,234,901barrels(51,865,844gallons) of crude had spilled into the Gulf before midnight3June.

In the 30days between midnight3June and midnight3July at the post-cut minimum flow rate of 35,000barrels(1,470,000gallons) per day, a minimum of 1,050,000barrels(44,100,000gallons) of crude had flowed from the wellhead.
NEW INFORMATION: By the midnight3July, the total*volume of crude oil collected or flared was 585,400barrels(24,586,800gallons).
Subtracting the volume collected or flared from the volume that flowed from the wellhead between midnight3June and midnight3July means that a minimum of another 464,600barrels(19,513,200gallons) had spilled into the Gulf before midnight3July.

Added to the volume spilled before midnight3June, that means a combined total minimum of ~1,699,501barrels(71,379,044gallons) had spilled into the Gulf before midnight3July.
ExxonValdez spilled 11,000,000gallons. By midnight3July, DeepwaterHorizon had spilled six ExxonValdezes plus another ~128,072barrels(5,379,044gallons) toward the next one.
Working backwards by dividing that 5,379,044gallons by an averaged^minimum spill rate of 430,815gallons per day, then subtacting the resulting 12.48574 days from midnight3July...
...by 12:21pm21June, DeepwaterHorizon had spilled SIX ExxonValdezes.

* The RITT was emplaced on 16May and removed on 25May.
"On June 5...10,500 barrels...was collected [by the LMRP]... From June 3 through June 5, the [total] volume of oil collected was 16,600 barrels."
Then ~15,000barrels per day until after 16June when a collection&flaring system was added to the LMRP collection system.

^ Averaged minimum spill rate of 10,257.5barrels(430,815gallons) per day equals minimum flow rate of 35,000barrels per day minus the daily collection&flaring rate of 24,752.5barrels per day.
(Averaged by dividing the first subtotal by 6)
.Date collected or flared --> spilled
.On 4July, 24,955barrels --> 10,045barrels
.On 5July, 24,980barrels --> 10,020barrels
.On 6July, 24,760barrels --> 10,240barrels
.On 7July, 24,575barrels .-> 10,425barrels
.On 8July, 24,395barrels --> 10,605barrels
.On 9July, 24,790barrels --> 10,210barrels
.Subtotal 148,455barrels --> 61,545barrels
On 10July 15,195barrels --> 19,805barrels
.Subtotal 163,500barrels --> 81,350barrels
1/2 11July - 4,035barrels --> 13,465barrels (barrels flared subtracted from 17,500, half of 35,000)
.Subtotal 167,535barrels --> 94,815barrels
1/2 11July - 0,000barrels --> 00,000barrels (barrels flared subtracted from 17,500, half of 35,000)
.Subtotal 171,000barrels -> 100,000barrels

5,620,956gallons equals 133,832barrels (explanations below)
11,000,000gallons minus 5,379,044gallons is the volume remaining toward the 7thExxonValdez.
(133,832 rounded down from 133,832.2916... as is 5,620,956 from 5,620,956.25...
...because 5,379,044 was rounded up from 5,379,043.75)

From BPwebsite (because they overwrite frequently while rounding numbers upward),
"For the last 12 hours on July 10 (noon to midnight), approximately 4,060 barrels of oil and 9.8 million cubic feet of natural gas were flared on the Q4000.
On July 10, total oil recovered was approx. 15,200 barrels: approx. 7,096 barrels of oil were collected, approx. 8,100 barrels of oil were flared, and approx. 35.2 million cubic feet of natural gas were flared.
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Pensacola, you going to the air show today?
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Yeah it is pretty bad when you have to watch TWC cause of the immaturity that is going on around in here. But that's what happens when you have a bunch of kids and a bunch of adults acting like kids....LOL
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Quoting msgambler:
Morning Ike, PensacolaDoug, checking the weather 1)before heading off to work 2)before it gets unbearable to be on here. Hope all are well with you and yours and will see y'all again next time.


LOL...this place is unbearable at times. There's nothing going on anyway.
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Hmm... Waters are going to warm up if there's no storms to cool them down... Little cloud cover, NAO values favor warming, right?... And by the time the season swings into gear, shear will be dead because of la nina.

It's going to get crazy when this season starts.

This is the calm before the... Storm.
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Morning Ike, PensacolaDoug, checking the weather 1)before heading off to work 2)before it gets unbearable to be on here. Hope all are well with you and yours and will see y'all again next time.
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I can look at a satellite of the entire Atlantic basin and tell there won't be anything for the next few days. July 20th isn't that far away and it's not much of a stretch to assume the ECMWF is correct.

Besides it's botched job on 90L, it's been spot on this 2010 season. Plus it's got other models...like the parallel GFS agreeing with it.

Parallel GFS 00Z run does show a system, looks similar to TD2, affecting the Yucatan and northern Mexico/extreme southern Texas in the 10-12 day period. Otherwise, that's it.
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Good morning!
Occasional poster, lurker for years...

Water in Texas, oil in the Gulf...used to be otherwise. It´s sad.

greetings from Buenos Aires, have a good day!
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That's nice IKE, but it doesn't mean their won't be any development. All the time models don't show development, but something develops. Really no point looking at the ECMWF 10 days out, lol.
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00Z ECMWF South America view shows nothing off Africa the next 10 days.

00Z ECMWF shows nothing affecting the USA through July 20th.

I don't even see a depression anywhere on that run.
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Great update! Thanx!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.