Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Locally, for you guys, this season picked up in the plains after your usual time for peak severe WX activity, April to early May. Most of the gains back to almost normal levels have been, geographically, to your north.

True, but we usually pay dearly for these quiet Tornado Season's here in North Texas, wither later this year during the fall months or early in 2011 from late Feb-Mid June.

Quoting Orcasystems:


We didn't have to fight either :)
Other then the odd skirmish with our southern neighbours... we would rather BBQ & drink :)

LOL . . . hey, we moved out of mom's house, but kept a very amicable relationship w/Mummy dearest... good for the tourism product, u know...

Quoting Inactivity:


If you look at post 220,the map shows that it is already starting to move out of the pocket,however that vertical shear map is 10 hours old(as of 06z).

CIMSS and that map are different, don't know what the discrepancy is though. The one I posted is from 15:00UTC though.

It's supposed to be quiet in the tropics. Get out and enjoy.... before to late.

Looks like, at least potentially, this newest wave will give us something to watch over the next little while.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like, at least potentially, this newest wave will give us something to watch over the next little while.

And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.

Quoting StormW:


Because the one I posted is a forecast map...CIMSS is near real time.

I understand that. What I meant is the discrepancy between CIMSS and this one:

Quoting atmoaggie:
And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.

Now that's a purdy strong MJO.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I was there the night the Union Jack was lowered for the last time and the first time the black, gold and aquamarine was hoisted... very emotional moment, even though I was 2 young to understand everything that was going on...

Well thats wonderful. Please excuse my ignorance. its nice to know!

Windshift from surface observations on the African coast.

Quoting StormW:


Oh...my bad...I've noticed that...almost always seems to be a discrepancy between those two. I know the CIMSS is derived high density satellite winds.

I myself consider CIMSS more reliable, the other one doesn't seem detailed.

Hi guys....should any development come out of this??

mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??

nope jlpr

Quoting atmoaggie:
And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.

can someone please explain what this is... I'm a novice and think of myself as pretty smart, but I am at a loss for this chart.
Help?

Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??

No..

If it's a big red X, yes. Otherwise, no.

big picture

Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??

Only if you're going for the inviseble man look!

Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??

thata a no go

KOTG Get that movie Today you here me go to the nearest one near you and ask for Knowing what is in it could happen

Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??

if its a polar bear in a snowstorm then yes

ok
:s

Quoting Hurricanes101:


if its a polar bear in a snowstorm then yes

lol

Assuming for the moment that this product is showing good data, it is a great example of how dependent SSTs are upon wind speeds.
(No Alex didn't upwell cold waters in the entire gulf, but his distant winds did have the effect of both mixing and evap cooling).

A month ago (and 2 weeks ago), it was warmer in the gulf than now.


Given the mostly calm conditions expected for the near future, expect a creeping upwards for the next week or more. Back to mid-June conditions fairly quickly.

In one week the difference is obvious even well away from Alex's track, during a period of 15 knot winds for about the entire Gulf:

I found this website that explains all the perimeters of cyclogenesis and how to forecast a cyclone after it develops, it's from the Navy and I find it very useful. Here's the link for anyone that is interested:

Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide

Here's an excerpt from "2.3 Vertical Wind Shear":

"A primary factor in the formation of a TC is the warming of a column of air by latent heat released during convection. If this heating occurs sufficiently, it will lower the surface pressure and begin a cyclonic circulation and inflow. Large values of vertical wind shear prevent this process from occurring since they remove heat from the air column. (Gray, 1968; Perrone et al., 1979; Zehr, 1992; Wozniak, 1997)."

Quoting JRRP:
mmmm
do anyone here can see my avatar??

How about Harry Potter in his invisible cloak??

280

Thanks for the description Storm, I had the same question!

all indications yes TexasHurricane we could see somthing come out of this

JRRP I am sorry your avatar has failed you I am very sorry

Quoting StormW:


That is the MJO Multivariate chart. In this case, two of the forecast ensemble models. When the MJO is in Octants 1 & 2, that is when we usually get development on our side of the world. The further out from the center of the chart, the stronger the MJO upward motion pulse.

Oh, ok! I assumed it had something to do with development, but I was totally missing it, thanks so much!

Quoting LPstormspotter2:


Well thats wonderful. Please excuse my ignorance. its nice to know!

Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL . . . hey, we moved out of mom's house, but kept a very amicable relationship w/Mummy dearest... good for the tourism product, u know...

Spent two summers on Barbados..68 & 69...working on BOMEX there was still plenty of the Banks Independence brew left over from 67....26 proof beer between that and the Mount Gay Eclipse twas a wonder any science got done.
LNL

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Keeper, is that a solar flare?

Quoting atmoaggie:
And if anything like this comes to pass, oh boy.

Scary that many other models tend to agree with the general pattern, most not as strong though. Root for Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System
, it takes it the other way.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
all indications yes TexasHurricane we could see somthing come out of this

JRRP I am sorry your avatar has failed you I am very sorry

hmmm ok.

If this can sustain for another 6-12 hours, things could get interesting. Surprised it has little model support.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If this can sustain for another 6-12 hours, things could get interesting. Surprised it has little model support.

the GFS seems to want to develop it at first and then all of a sudden has it falling apart

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If this can sustain for another 6-12 hours, things could get interesting. Surprised it has little model support.

The model support it had only showed it emerging off of the African coast, none of them developed it if I remember correctly. Regardless of model support, we should watch the area as long as it has favorable conditions ahead.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


the GFS seems to want to develop it at first and then all of a sudden has it falling apart

Anyone on here willing to venture a guess on how likely this robust tropical wave is to hold its own after the next 12-18 hours?

For anyone with Accuweather Pro, I suggest you take a look at their new ECMWF model section. Its probably the best available to the public. So many new parameters such as CAPE, cloud cover, 10m winds, 6-hour forecast increments, snowfall accumulation, SST forecast, and so much more.

Just dont post the images. lol

Quoting Bordonaro:

Anyone on here willing to venture a guess on how likely this robust tropical wave is to hold its own after the next 12-18 hours?

Who knows.....by the looks of it yes, but then again....there are those that look like they will and don't. I have no clue....

Great post Amto-Gig 'em. I didn't realize even teh outflow of a hurricane could moderate sea temaps. I knew upwelling could. But am surprised the whole GOMex cooled.

Thanks.