Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Floodman:


Surface features like rivers can cause some interesting anomalies; I grew up in St Louis and typically the winter months would show it a little better. It would snow 12" mid state and less than 3 in St Louis and mostly due to the influence of the Missouri/Mississippi confluence

Quoting mfaria101:


Keeper, is that a solar flare?

Quoting Drakoen:


Cause there is little model support. Some people put heavy emphasis in the models and only the models.

Quoting Drakoen:


Cause there is little model support. Some people put heavy emphasis in the models and only the models.

Quoting Tazmanian:
a wave is a wave this be come it dos not have any model support dos not mean the mode runs will not try too lock on too this wave later on may be the mode runs are waiting too see what this wave dos in the next 48hrs be for they start locking on too this

Quoting beell:


The important question to answer-if a model shows no support-why?

Quoting extreme236:
In some ways this reminds me of a system that pushed off Africa maybe in 2008 (I forget what year it was) that was impressive and the NHC never mentioned it. Then it dissipated the next day.

Quoting mfaria101:

Its funny really, I spend a considerable amount of time lurking here trying to learn about the tropics, when i am sure there are lots of interesting things about the local weather I probably should pay attention to. really just sick of the water bill though.
How you holding up down there Flood?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That happens every year lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just because models do not show development it doesn't mean that development will not occur. This tropical wave that just emerged off of Africa seems to have favorable to marginal conditions ahead for development.

Quoting sailingallover:

OK So if it start to pull out of the ITCZ which it will have to in order to develop it's gonna run right into that red stuff...which is what I said. Look at where the ITCZ is analyzed at and the dust follows it very closely..

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Models show development.. ECMWF, GFS, CMC.

Quoting JRRP:
NGP is showing a storm near Nicaragua
Link

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Models show development.. ECMWF, GFS, CMC.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

Quoting Drakoen:


Exactly see post 345

Quoting Grothar:


What did I tell you about stealing my globes? LOL

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Impressive nonetheless

Quoting robert88:
IMO i think it will be at least 8- 10 days until we might see something to be concerned about. We are in a quiet pattern for the time being. I think this year will be real active and at least 2 major cane landfalls for the US. I don't however see this being a hyperactive season similar to 2005 like so many have suggested. I am looking at this season being a mix of 2004 and 2007.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting thunderstorm activity developing in the eastern quadrant.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


NOGAPS has been forecasting a storm by Nicaragua for about a month now lol

Quoting Grothar:
Remember to put on your sunglasses before viewing this latest flare!!!!

Quoting Floodman:


2004 was bad enough in it's own right; ask any Florida native about the landfalls that year. Again it only takes one storm to make it a bad year. I'm reserving my opinion on whether or not we'll see hyperactive...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


They are more than likely just daytime thunderstorms. Have to get convection to develop over water.

Quoting extreme236:


I know lol, but this one got a lot of attention when it happened. More so than the usual convective cluster. I remember it being early in the season.

Quoting Grothar:
Remember to put on your sunglasses before viewing this latest flare!!!!

Quoting StormW:


I'm kinda partial to 1995 and 1998.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is a zoom in regular view

Quoting IKE:
This may go on for awhile...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Quoting USSINS:
There is way too much emphasis being given to dust with considerably less concentrations now than even a couple of days ago. EUMETSAT's dust product more accurately depicts dust concentrations than does CIMSS, imo. Heaviest amounts are above 15n, 40-45w, except further north and east, but both areas are considerly further north, away from the ITCZ and the main areas for tropical development in the MDR.

There is a pocket of dry air between 50-60w and south of 15n, but water vapor shows even that area regressing, diminishing with the moist easterly flow coming westwards.

Shear also doesn't appear to be particularly unfavorable in the present. Haven't looked, but believe MJO conditions are not particularly supportive, but other than that, with the right wave, the right latitude, see no reason for development not to be possible. Dust, certainly, will not be the single most detrimental, inhibiting factor.