Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No, this

LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.7
LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.0 67.0 68.1 69.1 71.2 73.3 75.4 77.3 79.1 80.8 82.6 84.3


FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI

That's an interesting track.

Good evening Aussie.

Quoting msgambler:
Are you trying to say the invest could gain more curvature than you....LOL

most pine tree trunks have more curvature than me, hahahaha

97L to the gulf in some sorta sheared ripped-up form. More problems for development around western cuba. After that, all bets are off on development...and ending up somewhere between the LA, TX/MX border.

ya'll have a good one.

I was going through the hurricane archives last weekend and was surprised to see something I had totally missed before.. a hurricane forming over land in Canada... it amazed me.. I'm wondering what the record is for northernmost formation. Here is the track from Doc Masters archive;


Check out the track of this killer after it crosses the Great Lakes...

Warm waters await...

Quoting SeniorPoppy:
97L is getting sheared and probably won't get its act together until it reaches the Gulf. It might not even reach the Florida straits as a potent tropical wave. How this feature is an invest right now is beyond me. The feature in the Caribbean looks more promising.

Appearances are deceiving... lol. Both of these systems have some potential. Both are going to impact large portions of the basin right away, perhaps with greater force later. As long as 97L lasts through tomorrow, its appearance today is likely to be irrelevant in the long run....

Quoting Patrap:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Wow. That's SE Bahamas.... very near Ike's track in 08.

Quoting TampaSpin:
I am clicking a minus and Admin button everytime someone mentions [name deleted]....lay off!

+1 Me too.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Ok. I see something at 5N, 30W but isn't 5N too far south for getting spin? But I do see a nice circle of convection free clouds stretching from 20N-10N-20W-30W.

I made that point this morning; was surprised to see some apparent rotation in the convection even though it is way below the normal 10N where coreolis kicks in....Hard to tell at the moment whether this feature will break away from the ITCZ and rise in latitude over the next several days, or, fizzle out as Beell has noted as it moves west.

The models all seem to take the same general path if this forms before Cuba Texas will be in trouble

Matter of fact that SHIPS track is right for the Keys in 4 days with 5 knots of shear.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I made that point this morning; was surprised to see some apparent rotation in the convection even though it is way below the normal 10N where coreolis kicks in....Hard to tell at the moment whether this feature will break away from the ITCZ and rise in latitude over the next several days, or, fizzle out as Beel has noted as it moves west.

Ok thanks, that's interesting.

Ty storm, that helped quite a bit :-)

Quoting CybrTeddy:
SHEAR (KT) 20 19 27 28 25 24 22 21 16 3 5 7 8

NHC thinking that 97L will run into favorable shear in 80 hours or so.

At any rate development should be slow until then.

What are the odds of another hit in the TX/MX area?

Quoting Crawls:
What are the odds of another hit in the TX/MX area?

23.47353236275745%

lol, come on do you really think any of us can answer that question?

Special Update Watching 97L and the Caribbean 7/19/10

Quoting Crawls:
What are the odds of another hit in the TX/MX area?

by the looks of the models pretty good

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 19 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 22/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Producing some strong storms.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


23.47353236275745%

lol, come on do you really think any of us can answer that question?

LOL I wasn't looking for a specific #. I was looking for opinions and possibly historical data.

SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN

Looks like they canceled the one for Tuesday and have one set Wednesday in the SE Bahamas.

Quoting Crawls:


LOL I wasn't looking for a specific #. I was looking for opinions and possibly historical data.

based on current forecast tracks the chances of 97L affecting TX/MX is possible

but this is so far out, a lot can change; just keep an eye on it for now

Quoting Drakoen:

So much for downward MJO.. wow.

Quoting ElConando:
Producing some strong storms.

The actual invest isn't producing the convection, it's a TUTT low that's doing all the work.

Quoting IKE:
SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN

Looks like they canceled the one for Tuesday and have one set Wednesday in the SE Bahamas.

the one for tomorrow is not cancelled, or else it would have said so in that same text

new blog

Quoting RitaEvac:
97L is in vicinity of where Rita started her trek westward and scared the BeJesus outta everybody

Looks like (at least for now) a similiar kind of tracking. Haven't looked at WV yet to see how things are progressing along the upside of 30N, though....

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
12Z Model runs from the NHC

Geez. I hate the model runs that bring the core of the storm up over New Providence from the South.... about the worst possible approach direction for us...

Quoting Jeff9641:


Shears not that bad and is expected to weaken come Wednesday. I do think Bonnie maybe in the making in the next few days. I did call this one last week when this was a naked swirl at 17N and 33W.

LOL... some of us have been looking at this since when it came off W Africa w/ a low analysed at 20N and vigorous shower activity at 10N... have to admit it was the first one that looked like it had a chance against all the conditions. OTOH, I'm not surprised the one in front of it is kicking up some water, since it was the one that cleared out a lot of the SAL and moisturized a lot of the CATL....

Quoting TampaSpin:
I really don't think both can exist together as they are really to close. One will have to win out. Best guess is usually the system to the farthest West which would be in the Caribbean as Shear from the outflow from the Caribbean will hurt 97L as the TUTT moves out if it does.

I've been thinking about this too. I've also been wondering if a serious strengthening between 75 adn 80 west might not result in a more northerly movement, thereby separating the two systems more.

Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Storms can form very suddenly, look at the image of hurricane Katrina, in just a few hundred miles it went from a tropical disturbance to a cat 1 hurricane when it struck Florida. invest 97 in worth keeping a close eye on,especially if you live the SE USA.

Yeah, we were talking about that aspect of Katrina's cyclogenesis yesterday or Saturday. Rita is another storm from that year that organized relatively quickly (though not as fast as Katrina IIRC) in a similar location.

Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hello,
I have seen people referring to a good looking tropical wave off Africa. I look at satellite images from the EATL, and I really don't see much. Am I missing something? Can someone explain?
Thanks.

The wave came off yesterday with impressive circulation and convection. The Dust from the SAL has stopped the convection of the northern section over the Cape Verdes where the circulation is. There is still convection to the south at about 8N 25W the. These two features bear watching. 97L the current invest was the same situation. It came all the way across the atlantic as a naked circulation and is now firing convection since it is out of the dust.

The convection to the south is interesting because it is interacting with a trough in the South Atlantic. There has been some shearing to the south as well as convergence from the south.

.