Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
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I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
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That's the main thing i get from this.
Yer up late, Aussie..
But Storm also mentioned yesterday that he thought that something might pop in the Caribbean in the next 5 days......
Less pronounced than yesterday, had pink in the MJO and upward MJO sticks around just off Africa, which would be good for CV development, lots of upward motion over Africa.
I want the sky's over your center to be clear
I want your dust
Dust dust dust I want your dust
The mountains on the islands.. Perhaps
Nothing but ideal conditions
Yeah, not feeling the best, to forget about how i am feeling,,, I am here.
Which wave are we talking about?
so .30?
Yes, will be an area to watch.
Very nice indeed
I have my eye on it.
ts for tx?
Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX
The tropical disturbance will have to be monitored very closely for possible cyclone formation as it enters the gulf and threatens Texas by Wed./Thu.
so you want a hurricane's bad romance is what you're trying to say?
Sorry...it looks like it is.
I don't see any development from any reliable model heading for Texas.
Noted...but looking at sat views I think the models are out to lunch so to speak IMO. I never put a lot of stock in the models versus real time conditions.
Thats the one I was waiting for........Need to keep a BIG eye (see Aussie post below) on that one in around 6-7 days.
so it's almost in a lose lose situation..
The area of convection that is garnering up my interest is the one south of Haiti.
"caught in a bad invest" so yes
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Today....
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