97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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Z = UTC. Bird will still be dropping sondes when the 00Z runs fire off. Might have data from the early part of the flight in for 00Z, but the full data won't make it until next after that
The ULL looks more pronounced or at least more visible because it's getting it's appearance off some of 97L.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
621 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS THE ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOTHER TUTT...WITH AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN 60W-40W TO NORTH OF THE GUIANAS. TWO CLOSED LOWS EMBED IN THIS AXIS...WITH ONE NEAR 20N 53W AND THE OTHER TO THE NORTH OF 30N. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE...THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO/USVI. THIS IS TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPROACHING TUTT WILL LEAD TO EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A BRIEF SURGE ON SATURDAY AS THE
TUTT ENTERS THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING AN UNUSUALLY HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE APPROACHING TUTT...FAILING TO MAINTAIN CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CONTINUITY. ON THE SHORT RANGE THEY ONLY AGREE THROUGH 36-48 HRS...WHEN THE AXIS IS TO START ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THAT TIME...THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE TO 28N 60W...WHILE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH WILL LIE JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LATTER IS PUZZLING THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AXIS THROUGH 60-72 HRS...WHILE THE EUROPEAN SHOWS THE LOW/TROUGH STALLING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH 96-108 HRS. BUT
NOT EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FORECAST...AS IT IS GOING TO LIMIT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THEY...HOWEVER...ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TO THE NORTH...AS THEY SHOW THE CLOSED LOW REPOSITIONING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY 72 HRS...TO THEN MAKE A
BEELINE TO THE TURKS BY 96 HRS.
from no pants to a dress...you're scarin me Jeff :)
like a hurricane around your heart
when earth and sky are torn apart...
January 23, 1986
Edit: That delay was due to dust IN Africa, "Dust at the emergency landing strip in Dakar, Senegal, in western Africa is not expected to clear soon, so NASA found a new site in eastern Africa -- Casablanca, Morocco." Challenger did not launch until January 28, 1986, which was the the day of the explosion disaster.
East central Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
950 am EDT Wednesday Jul 21 2010
Discussion...
Today-tonight...precipitable water on the xmr sounding this morning of 1.19 is running well below the climatology 25 percentile value which is around 1.65. The current low value might actually lie near only around 10 percent of normal at best visually estimating from the late July/early August curve.
Nassau Bahamas currently located closer to WV indicated moisture ribbon is at a precipitable water of 1.70 and this relatively higher upstream moisture will work toward the area later today. Full effects of high pressure near area will effectively shut down precipitation potential and we recently put the radar in clear air Mode. No forecast update is planned.
1030 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N93W 23N94W 18N93W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU AND INLAND THU
NIGHT. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA THROUGH FRI AS
A TROPICAL WAVE OR A LOW PRES POSSIBLY ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF
SAT AND SUN.
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AND MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF
THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND SUN.
Wow, I'll never forget where I was the day that tragic event took place - elementry school library watching it happen live on TV.
I hate to say that I can remember the Challenger, Discovery, the Valdez and BO oil spill, and 911.
Don't remember that...
It will be close for the last few. Data dump for the 00Z GFS is about 10:45 PM EDT, most should make it in. NAM is about 9:15 PM EDT so a lot more are questionable for it.
Niiiice
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N93W 23N94W 18N93W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU AND INLAND THU
NIGHT.
Wonder where on the coast of tx this will wind up?
agree and 97l has something it didnt have yesterday and thats a coc spining so watch this when it gets to the bahaamas i dont know what shear is but if its ok this could develop and explode like the models were showing and any blob that gets to the bahamas following 97l could do the same so no rip today on this end
# 603 It looks like a scorpion looking south with its tail on the north ready to strike!
I'll go with 40% or 50% for now...I'd say 40%, but knowing the NHC and their conservatism I'd say it will be 50%.
Im a little curious why this hasnt been more carefully viewed...not saying it isnt but it still looks like a really strong storm.
I was doing the same thing.... watched the Challenger disaster live in 3rd grade. :-(
I'm several up on you:
The JFK assassination
The Tet offensive
The Apollo fire
MLK assassination
The Watts riots
The Chicago riots
RFK assassination
Kent State
The fall of Saigon
The Iran hostage crisis
I left out the invention of disco...
Could be right. The TPC has it making a hard left after crossing the peninsula.
72 hours
Most likely scenario but I would think it would be a mild tropical storm, if that. However, once it gets into GOM, it may take a turn for the worst.
JFK, JHK, MLK, Watts, Rodney King, Medger Evers, Fall of Saigon etc. History is fully of tragedy and triumph.
I was told once that "May you live in interesting times" was an Ancient Chinese blessing. I've been blessed.
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