97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 GMT le 21 juillet 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmosweather:


No need to worry about that...that's more than a week from now...models are useless for that timeframe.


Yeah. That reminds me of the parade of storms in 2008 out there. Hopefully not this year.
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin .97L NOT MOVE MUCH -BAD NEWS
Quoting texwarhawk:
storms begininng to fire west of 97L


97L is ready for take off...i called it wrong today as it had multiple swirls that i thought the one on the East side would take over......that did not happen...just shows how strong the swirl is with the main swirl...until i see a visible....really hard to say what it is doing...but, things are sure starting to become more favorable that is for sure.
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3810. xcool
homelesswanderer DAMM I FEEL PLAYER :(
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3809. xcool
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Quoting xcool:
POOR homelesswanderer


Hush! Or I might need your hanky again. :p
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storms begininng to fire west of 97L
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Quoting washingaway:


I don't why, I got the link from WU on the tropical front page. It's under Computer model forecasts look for CSU.


OK. That worked best I can tell thats the farthest west I've seen them.
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3805. xcool
Link

GO HERE
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
HMMM?



No need to worry about that...that's more than a week from now...models are useless for that timeframe.
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3803. xcool
TampaSpin .97L NOT MOVE MUCH -BAD NEWS
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3802. xcool
POOR homelesswanderer
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anyone have the statistical and dynamic models? for both 97L and 98L
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Quoting xcool:


98L


97L

Lower Convergence




Look how the Vorticity has tightened up on 97L...now nearly a ball of orange and red...its trying hard to pull together!
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Looks like a Rita track


SmileyCentral.com
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Quoting texwarhawk:
98L maybe TD or TS by next update- convection is looking great right over what appears to be COC


ASCAT does not show a closed low, obs do not support a closed low...they won't classify it until they get confirmation of a closed LLC from RECON, ASCAT or obs.
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3797. xcool
TampaSpin I agree with you.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Access forbidden on the link.


I don't why, I got the link from WU on the tropical front page. It's under Computer model forecasts look for CSU.
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Quoting xcool:



omg anticyclone move to 97L


WIND SHEAR NOTBADD


I am really fearfull that 97L will explode in a 24hr time frame just before south Florida.......that would not be good for those Vacationing in the Keys.
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3794. xcool


98L


97L

Lower Convergence


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From the limited surface observations available, I believe that a closed surface circulation is attempting to develop with Invest 98L.

Veracruz is reporting NNW winds, and winds have been generally NW there for several hours.

Additionally, an ASCAT pass from late yesterday evening revealed the beginning of a well-defined cyclonic circulation. Since that time, the overall circulation appears to have become better defined.

It's obviously not closed yet, but it's working on it. I think we'll see TD3 by tomorrow afternoon.
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3791. xcool



omg anticyclone move to 97L


WIND SHEAR NOTBADD
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HMMM?

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3789. xcool
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Quoting washingaway:
0pps

euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png


Access forbidden on the link.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
98L maybe TD or TS by next update- convection is looking great right over what appears to be COC


I agree. The gulf is like rocket fuel. Wow! Really didn't see this coming. Hopefully the Mexican authorities can warn people in time. Poor people. Even the rain could do them in. :(
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3786. xcool
no clue..
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98L maybe TD or TS by next update- convection is looking great right over what appears to be COC
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Why is the image being X out?
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0pps

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Quoting xcool:


97l update


98l




They look like if they had the room they'd really spin up.
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pressures at pine cay under 97L are still dropping 29.9 about noon 29.79 now winds are also increasing
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Quoting xcool:
i dnot see any more shifted


Modifed Comment:

Don't know why it's not working
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Quoting washingaway:
The shift to left is bad NOLA, it puts us in the NE quadrant with SW winds. That will push oil right up our A$$.


Awe oh no. :( Hope not. Maybe will be far enough away. But that may not help either.
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3778. xcool


97l update


98l


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3776. xcool
washingaway haha.
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Quoting washingaway:
006 models shifted west



Hey, that's going towards me! D:< Change it backkk!
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which one will become a TD first?
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The shift to left is bad NOLA, it puts us in the NE quadrant with SW winds. That will push oil right up our A$$.
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3772. xcool
i dnot see any more shifted
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shear is definitely still the primary problem for 97L. The convection is building southward from the center, and I like that clouds are beginning to at least form to the west and sw of the COC.
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Quoting washingaway:
006 models shifted west



UGH! dagnabbitflibbinflubbin'! Sigh. :)
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The combination of 98-L and High pressure ridge
across northern gulf put a halt to our oil skimming efforts today and all our vessels are in port. Winds 15-25 kts over North gulf and 4-7 ft seas. Also not giving up on 97-L Whether or not it develops we could be shut down again by wind and waves.
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Quoting washingaway:
006 models shifted west



wow ive been moved into the cone of 97L kinda concerning exp. if it stays over water. gulf waters arn't warm they are burning
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00Z GFDL takes 98L to a 50mph TS before making landfall in 48 hours


night everyone
Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
3766. xcool


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006 models shifted west

www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2010/pre-storm/
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
MAYBE SEE INVEST 99L DOWN THE ROAD TO..ITS ON LAND RIGHT NOW WITH A BIG SPIN.


Hey Jason, I hope you didn't pay for that haircut.
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Quoting xcool:
LOLOL


Hee hee. Lol. The midnight shift is a lot of fun. :)
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AL, 98, 2010072206, , BEST, 0, 205N, 942W, 25, 1008, DB

winds up to 30mph on 98L

Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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