97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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Nice. Dont hold it against me if I am a Vol fan ok? That pretty much describes our season.
looks like the center is south east of the turks and caicos
The NHC wears blinders on Wednesday. 97L is blowing up and we'll have Bonnie by morning.
it looks like its trying to bear hug florida
LOL! There is that chance.
This is reliable Wx station on a nearby island:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2
I was at first glance going to say its getting better organized, but I look at this visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
It looks like there is some sort of sharp vorticity in the low clouds just north of Haitia and south of the Turks/Caicos. I can see vorticity in the low clouds extending also well to the southwest too, looks to me like an elongated southwest-northeast surface trough with the thickest white clouds sheared to the north of the surface trough. Its almost tempting to say there's a closed circulation just south of the Turks and Caicos, but I don't think there is one right now.
It is. You can depict the swirl on visible imagery, just SE of the lowestmost island in the Turks.
right now sustained at 22mph
pressure down to 29.81 which is about 1010mb...
gusts up to 42mph with highest sustained winds about an hour ago at 34mph...
That's right about where it is...appears to have sped up to the W to WNW.
wow look at the pressure
15:30 79.0 °F 76.0 °F 29.81in NE 30.0mph 42.0mph 89% - 0887 watts/m^2
Not if you use the controls and, well, not bite on every thing you dont agree with.
One has a choice here.
Always..
ignore..or tangle with idiocy
Pretty gusty down there in T&C. Gotta say, I'm jealous- love Provo!
Dvorak Infrared Loop shows pretty cold center.
There are just too many dang people on here honestly haha, many of which are loco, it has gotten out of hand for sure, I wish it was like the good old blog days.
It makes sense winds are changing from E to more NE over the eastern Bahamas & Turks & Caicos Islands right now. There's a sharp soutwhest-northeast elongated trough approachign the area from the east. What would be more interesting to see if there are any W winds being reported in NW Haiti. That could imply a higher chance of their being a closed circulation. Anyone have obs from Haiti?
ok, that is fine with me....I'd rather that then the hot humid sun...... :)
Thanks, I am also, it has been ODD to watch this "aiming" at us for 48 hours.
by 2pm tommarow not eariler
pressures are falling which means it is strenthaning
Where did that flight come from? It's not on today's flight plan. Good to see it up there though ... good upper level data would be quite handy about now. Will that make it into the 00z runs?
The point is that it's ridiculous to say things like "it's going to track just like Francis in '04" because odds on it won't...analog years are fine, I guess, for guesstimation of the overall season, but really...for track and intensity? Seriously? Every storm is different regardless of where it forms and while it may take a similar track, that's pretty much coincidental and the similarity ends there
Correct - however sometimes just because pressure's are falling it may not mean an increase in intensity.
Based on falling pressure, buoy winds, climatological conditions, and satellite presentation, it appears to be strengthening, at least for the moment. (Which doesn't mean it'll continue to do so; that's just where it's at now.)
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