97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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yup
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
Don't see organization with the EATL wave.
???
97L 40%
From nothing to Red circle. THAT WOULD BE CRAZY. Tropics are heating up
A. 30%
Agreed.
what gives?
Not the first time it happens.
Yes
WNPR~ Oh ok I didn't know if we might have one out there to watch 2, I know the other day there was a very healthy wave that came off but i don't know what happened to it. I promise I wasn't trying to be a smarta$$ by asking, I just didn't know that's all. Thanks for answering my ?.
sheri
I have an entire blog dedicated to 97L. If you want to know my opinion go there. For the time being, 98L is a more imminent threat to develop and closer to land.
Really? It popped out of nowhere!
HAVE THEY NAMED THE ONE IN boc AN INVEST?
I need one link to confirm that and I found this one.
nop new wave
98L, no explaination here, there will be a battle going on for "TD3 or Bonnie" tomorrow.
Also there is no TW in the eastern Caribbean, that's a piece that broke off 97L
yea!!!!
Yes, 98L.
There is no tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea in the NHC surface analysis:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
Check this satellite loop out. Click on HDW-H to see the upper-level winds over the eastern Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-ir4.html
Do you see the anticyclonic spin over the eastern Caribbean in the HDW-H vectors? You can also see that the flow is branching (splitting) on the SE side of the anticyclone. The branching, upper divergence is triggering those E Caribbean storms, not a tropical wave.
It still has around 48 hours. I don't know where people are getting this stuff.
i 2nd that
How sad...
seems like all the waves that come off africa dip about 5° south after they get off, jajajaja
How come? Thats good news, one disturbance less. :D
This is how 98L emerged. Its a long story actually. How do I know? I use the surface analsyes at the NHC to see what's going on day to day in the surface across the Atlantic tropics. That's my source.
Step 1) Remember that Caribbean Sea disuturbance in the central Caribbean last week? A broad surface low pressure area materialized east of Nicaragua from this, which was soon absorbed by a tropical wave moving in from the east. The absorbing wave moved westward into the western Caribbean, Yucatan, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where it interacted this week with a cut-off upper low in the Gulf. The upper low dominated as all clouds organized around it instead of the surface wave, preventing development.
Step 2) Now, remember that tropical wave south of Jamaica on the evening of July 19? I was really surprised that wave never developed. I also remember saying that would become 97L instead of the 97L we have now. It was under low shear and good outflow from a western Caribbean upper-level ridge, so I was surprised it didn't develop. This wave continued westward across the western Caribbean Sea, and also into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
3) Both tropical waves merged int the western Gulf of Mexico in the last few hours, creating a large, monsoonal like low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico which is now Invest 98L. The cut-off upper low in the Gulf has moved westward out of the area, and now the disturbance is underneath anticyclonic upper ridging with relatively high upper atmospheric pressurs between the cut-off low to its west and the other cut-off low to the east (the eastern cut-off low is the same one that is shearing 97L). This has a better chance than poor ol' 97L which is suffering from shear.
Oh, I get it.
yeah as long as they both aren't going to affect anyone....which w/ these 2 seems rather unlikely
Look at purple model . LOL
there is also a mid level ridge which is also circulating 97L outflow..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010
SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE LOCAL AREA OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
am i wounder if they made it too where you wont see there commets if you have some one on Ignore
hmmm whats see
any any one noted this yet???
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