97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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What, not TWO yet?
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
98l: 30%
The GFS and the NAM. The NOAA owns the NCEP which produces the model runs.
yeah 40% and 30%
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...
Wow. Down to 40%.... looks like PR and the VIs may have -just may- seen the worst of 97L.... we can hope.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
I just wanted to say that during Alex, all of you sucked me in causing a great loss of sleep as I became addicted to pushing that F5. I live here in Houston and the information provided on this site helps a lot of people to prepare before getting stuck in long gas lines, etc… Keep up the great work and keep it real.
looks like they want to make sure its gonna keep organizing before they jump the gun... I personally think 60% at the next two and a td or ts by sunrise
look here >> Link
Sounds like he was enjoying the tavern a bit. :)
40 and 30?
Thank you for the info...back to lurking...
you and your computer are gonna get real cozy this season :)
and WU re-hab dont work...
Air Force
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1012mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 28 knots (32 mph)
984mb 55° (from the NE) 34 knots (39 mph)
910mb 55° (from the NE) 37 knots (43 mph)
895mb 55° (from the NE) 34 knots (39 mph)
850mb 65° (from the ENE) 36 knots (41 mph)
703mb 45° (from the NE) 25 knots (29 mph)
645mb 60° (from the ENE) 20 knots (23 mph)
591mb 25° (from the NNE) 15 knots (17 mph)
573mb 40° (from the NE) 12 knots (14 mph)
547mb 5° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
452mb 65° (from the ENE) 2 knots (2 mph)
417mb 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
411mb 95° (from the E) 13 knots (15 mph)
323mb 145° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
289mb 145° (from the SE) 16 knots (18 mph)
265mb 205° (from the SSW) 21 knots (24 mph)
220mb 205° (from the SSW) 33 knots (38 mph)
174mb 200° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
164mb 165° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
159mb 165° (from the SSE) 20 knots (23 mph)
154mb 180° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph)
147mb 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph
you and both.. I got hooked watching the "big guy" on the sever weather webcam site during aalex.. not that in itself was so spectacular, but it did absolutely make me want to learn more.. I have always just been a "radar" addict".. Now I guess Im hopelessly addicted to WU.. There are alot of people a whole bunch smarter than me on here... I try not to ask too many stupid questions,,
Fairly reasonable forecasts, IMO, and very happy-making for me on the 97L end.
LMAO! A good one
It's what I expected, an orange code for both. However, 97L has become better organized today. Again, tonight will tell the tale of both invests.
Yup. We'll see if 97L can perform better overnight.
but it appears the NHC is no longer confident that the ULL will move away from 97L enough to allow it to organize
Uhh.. yes.
Link
Enchantment Of The Sea - Passenger ship - Callsign C6FZ7
is showing up on the WUndermap between Turks & Caicos and Haiti with Wx data labeled Buoy C6FZ7
BUOYC6FZ7
lat: 20.80
lon: -72.30
Wind: SE at 26km/h
Pressure: 1012hPa
Viewing: 2301 - 2351
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