97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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Doggy Du. almost every Deep Sea Vessel has one.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Landfall Points
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
as coastline!
**This message provides an update of the date/time of switch, updated
Eclipse and Stray Light Zone schedules, and resumption of GOES-13
pre-ops on 3/31**
The Office of Satellite Operations/SOCC has provided the time of the
GOES-12 to GOES-13 transition to be 1934 UTC on April 14, 2010.
The Eclipse and Stray Light Zone schedules have been modified to
include
an extra day of Partial Frame testing, as well as continued GOES-11
Full
Disk scans up until April 29, 2010. These updated schedules can
be found
at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html
(Users of NOAAPORT/GINI will continue to see GOES-11 Full Disk in place
of the GOES-13 Partial Frames between 0430 UTC and 0545 UTC until
4/29/10)
Partial Frame definitions and updated GOES-East schedules for GOES-13
can be found at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/THIRTEEN/sched.html
GOES-13 has resumed imaging/sounding and will switch back to the East
schedule between 1941 and 2041 UTC on 3/31/10.
--Original Notification--
***GOES-13 is scheduled to replace GOES-12 as the GOES-East operational
spacecraft on April 14, 2010 at 1934 UTC***
GOES-13, launched on May 24, 2006, is the first in the series of GOES-N
satellites (GOES-14 was launched on June 27, 2009 and GOES-P is
scheduled to be launched no earlier than March 4, 2010). This series
will carry the 5 channel imager and 19 channel sounder similar to the
GOES-I through M series, with some differences. GOES-13 carries
the same
imager and sounder payload as GOES-12,
but the new spacecraft bus will
allow it to operate through eclipse and most of the keep out zone
periods and images will have increased navigation, registration and
radiometric accuracy. (GOES-13 was used briefly as GOES-East in
December
2008 during a thruster anomaly period with GOES-12).
If it doesn't slow down it has a shot.
BY SATURDAY A TUTT LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA....WILL MOVE ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COASTLINE. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA LIFTING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS...BUT WE
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND POSITION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PRESENT. WE HAVE
STAYED NEAR OR UNDER THE COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON...NOT TOO MENTION ITS WARM BIAS AS OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
POSSIBLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY ABUNDANT GREEN VEGETATION PRESENT.
If 97 had been smaller who knows what we would be talking about...not that its over.
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Us Floridians don't want every storm to come this way, or death and destruction, but it sure peaks our interest when there is one potentially headed this way.
our cast is
xcool
btw
patrap
imposters lol
and i
stay tuned
Ummmm
I second that. During Ike I was up at 3 am making toast with my laptop right beside me...F5...F5...
(I am still having trouble with the NHC links to satellites being almost 2 hours behind in UTC, unless I am reading the UTC -5 wrong...help?)
97L
Pulling it in and starting to wrap?
both sets are concerning me. i missed our local met on the 10 news :( would have liked to have seen his take on 97
there have been outliers in and around Texas this entire time
As for 98L, I would be thinking a little bit more about flooding concerns than I am seeing by looking at the Brownsville TX tv station websites.
hmmmmm!
Viewing: 3201 - 3251
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