Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting reedzone:
During the split with 97L, a nice area of convection with great outflow and curve emerged southeast of PR near 64W and 15-16N. Wind shear is currently 20 knots over the area do to 97Ls outflow. Interesting area to say at the least, looks near TD status but the eyes are mind boggling, not even an invest yet, may get tagged if it persists. 97Ls structure continues to organize. If we get a nice DMAX tonight, I believe this should make TD status by Thuyrsday morning or afternoon when recon goes out.

Quoting extreme236:
14:40 UTC NASA images show some slight building of convection.

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Right now, in analyzing RGB satellite imagery, it seems that the low level circulation is coming back and attempting to become better defined and possibly closed at around 20N and 69.9W. When zooming into this area in the last few images, you can really see some defined spin in the lower levels. Now that it has begun pulling apart from Hispanola, it should become better organized.

Quoting BiloxiIsle:
From Dr Master on August 23, 2005:

The remains of TD 10 continue to fester over the Bahama Islands, and the clouds have taken on that decidedly messy pattern associated with a tropical depression in the formative stages. An exposed low level circulation center is apparent in both visible satellite imagery and winds from the Quikscat satellite. The circulation was north of eastern Cuba and south of the central Bahama Islands, near 22.5N, 76W at 11am EDT. Deep convection is all east of the low level circulation center, and Quickscat winds as high as 30 knots were measured in this area. Observation stations in the vicinity are sparse, and I have not yet seen any pressure falls in those stations close to the system.

The environment surrounding the system is good but not ideal. Water temperatures are quite warm--about 29C, and closer to 31C near the western Bahamas. However, wind shear levels have been increasing somewhat over the past 12 hours and are about 10 - 15 knots (5 -10 knots would be much better.) A small upper-level low just north of the system may act bring some dry air into the system and hamper any upper-level outflow that tries to develop. Another possible problem is the presence of the large landmass of Cuba to the south, which may disrupt the system's circulation if it tracks more westerly. I expect the storm to continue to torment us by very slowly continuing to organize as it moves towards Florida.

The system appears to be tracking west-northwest at a very slow 5 to 10 mph, and the latest "early guidance" shows the storm moving more northwesterly towards Florida over the next few days. However, steering currents are weak and more westerly motion towards Cuba or the Straits of Florida would not be a surprise. Some of the computer models such as the Canadian model strengthen the system into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Some very warm water (32C, or almost 90F) lies off the west coast of Florida that model believes will fuel the storm into a hurricane. The GFS model makes the system a weak tropical storm that moves over Florida by Friday, then keeps the system a weak tropical storm as it recurves past the Carolinas. If the system does become a tropical storm, it is unlikely the upper level winds will allow intensification into a hurricane for at least the next three days. By that time, it's anybody's guess what might happen. One thing is for sure--the remains of TD 10 will be a around for a lot longer, they're going nowhere very fast. I expect I'll still be talking about this system next week!

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the remains of TD 10 at 5pm this afternoon to see if a new tropical depression has formed. If so, it will be interesting to see if they call it TD 10 again, since the NHC discussions have been referring to this system as "possibly the remnants of TD 10".

Quoting Floodman:


A better one:

HAHA A good one! who knew fogarty was so weather attuned :)

Quoting twhcracker:

Quoting est1986:
Hurricane Bonnie come to Louisiana!

Quoting est1986:
Hurricane Bonnie come to Louisiana!

Quoting gordydunnot:
Good morning, Looking at visible looks like it maybe finally far enough away from Hispaniola to be getting a center now. I think we will see this in the next few hrs.

Quoting StormW:


Black Sabbath, Deep Purple, Status Quo, Cream, Grand Funk Railroad.

Quoting CJ5:
It appears conditions to the West of 97L have eased a bit and it is possible the storm could begin to develop better in the coming hours.

Quoting StormW:
INVEST 97L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 10:35 A.M. JULY 21, 2010

Quoting TampaSpin:
I wonder why this has not been talked about or on the media......pretty amazing story sent to me from another Blogger that i had not heard.......HUM.....GW people won't like it tho i am sure!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf

Quoting StormW:


However, being wrong is not a bad thing. I could be wrong in my forecast too! But don't really care. I mean, I could adjust my numbers like is done in Aug, and such, and I could be on the money too. The point is to make a forecast based on what ya see from analyzing everything, and stick with it, to see how close ya come, and if the analysis parameters prove accurate. If not, then you go back and re-analyze things.

My numbers still hold at 17-19.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
you are insane you all dont need anymore problems havent you all had enough

Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Good morning, all.

We must be regrouping on 97L! ;) Speaking of groups - uuummm, how about Marshal Tucker! Yeah!

Quoting StormW:


Black Sabbath, Deep Purple, Status Quo, Cream, Grand Funk Railroad.

Quoting FLdewey:


So were you on here last night? Were you here when he started posting fake NHC updates? Were you here when he started posting pictures of himself?


MAYBE IF I START POSTING IN CAPS IT WILL BE BETTER. There is no credit due. In fact the account is negative after I had to see his hairy pits. ;-)

Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I'm probably not seeing the facts properly anyway.

Quoting Goldenblack:
Anyone else notice that on water vapor that the ULL is starting to accelerate to the west?

Quoting twhcracker:


yeah! how noble is it to change your forecast midseason?! That would be like if i bet on the superbowl and when i saw things going bad at half time changing my bet!

Quoting Floodman:


Raised in Northern California, he spent his summers with his family in Louisiana...