TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That ain't a vort fix so not convinced yet.
21:18:00Z 22.783N 75.333W 987.5 mb
(~ 29.16 inHg) 159 meters
(~ 522 feet) 1005.6 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg)
I see it right about where the 5pm was
Thats what I was saying. You stole mine. LOL!!
Coordinates: 22.9833N 74.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 988.0 mb (~ 29.18 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 174 meters (~ 571 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.0 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111° at 36 knots (From the ESE at ~ 41.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Dew Pt: 21.0°C (~ 69.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 23 mm/hr (~ 0.91 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Here is another one looking real good
YEAH!!
then a huge area of intense convection is beginning to erupt near the center.
you dont always get the strongest winds in the vortex message I have noticed
I have seen with most systems the actual winds reported by the NHC in advisories is higher than the highest surface wind reported in the vortex messages
Hahahahaha.
He wast talking about the tower of mash potatoes he left out side. It became hot, so it went boom, to the floor.
Time: 21:18:00Z
Coordinates: 22.7833N 75.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.5 mb (~ 29.16 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 159 meters (~ 522 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 356° at 4 knots (From the N at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 25.1°C (~ 77.2°F)
Dew Pt: 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Well because they round. The previous Vort fix has winds around 33-34mph.
Watch out Miami! Here it comes!!!!
What do you think of the current track Drakoen? Do you feel it will shift more to the east? TIA
no I'm talking about the area of convection erupting near the center of TD 3..
I know one thing ... I am seeing less and less of the COC. which could mean one of two things. Intensification or sheer. I will assume for the moment that it is intensification since I am seeing towers going up on this one close to the COC.
Miami, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Link
What is your take on the system
YOU NEED TO LISTEN TO ME REED THIS IS JUST GOING TO BE A RAIN MAKER...IF THIS IS NOT A TROPICAL STORM BY 11PM IT WILL NEVER BE...
______________________________
Someone needs a beer and a good nap..lol
That is about right in terms of the COC position.
The NW movement is lasting a little longer than I thought it would. But, heights are rising just to the N/NW of the cyclone, so I expect the ridge to the north to begin to build in overnight and the system should resume a west - west/northwest motion very shortly.
211800 2247N 07520W 9875 00159 0056 +251 +216 356004 007 020 003 00
Well, curtains too. Especially the plastic ones with fishies........
LOL
the 10th recon flight for Alex has the pressure at 973mb but top surface winds recorded at only 54mph
That was when Alex was already a hurricane
This is a very interesting reading... Indicates that the system is moving NNW and strengthening. Saw flight level winds to the ENE of the CoC of 46 mph. Hmmmmm.... Interesting!
Taz, everyone....we need to get rid of this hurrikat05...he's been on all day. Just an obnoxious brat!!! GET LOST HURRIKAT05!
yes i think that would put a good word too put it at
Miami, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Only less organized...
ITS A SHE
yeah, that would be something wouldn't it...
This place is like a man, on the verge of death in the desert....being handed a Dixie Cup of water. So desperate for something to track and watch. I can literally wear myself out reading a day's worth of posts here. I can't wait to see it around here when the Eye of Sauron is out at sea and bearing down.
Several hundred blind men trying to describe an elephant.
Viewing: 551 - 601
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