TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thats where its starting to wrap around.
plz stop with that
Couldn't agree more.
Would'nt expect major intensification for 36hours (or never)
Anyone else seeing a center reform further up to the NE around the new blow up of convection around 23.3N 75.1W?
Thought I could get through this without opening my mouth but...I have to agree with you.
Most are here to learn BUT please just read all posts for several hours and you'll learn more and know what questions to ask! You'll know who is giving good info like StormW, Tampa, Drak, Pat and many others. Seeing the same questions and confusion 100 (1000) times a day - surface vs. flight level, mph vs. kts, do strong or weaker storms go north....
Nothing wrong with posting questions if you can't find the answers but the majority are answered ad nauseum on here during the course of a day. Just take the time to read and learn.
Back to lurking...
which, when considering the SST's...that's a spicy meataball!"....
and hence...my feeling Bonnie will form its own environment...somewhat be on the other side of the ULL..and simply follow it at a slower pace....
resulting in the ability of the system to explode to.....cat 3 or worse....
You could be right. WPB could experience horribly devastating winds of 45 mph.
AOI
Yeah, waiting on that too Jeff... probably at 8pm or 11pm.
I don't know if it's just my eye or it's actually happening but the convective storms on the Southwest corner of the COC seem to be stregnthening. As they do, they seem to be pulling the COC further North. If this is the case. The Forecast track may shift to the right a little bit which will put the Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida Coasts in the path of what is now Tropical Storm Bonnie.
Just updated:
MARK
22.9N/74.5W
The difference was more than 150 miles up until this morning. It has already become much better organized thanks to the reformation of the LLC as the old low level spin crashed towards Cuba earlier today. If the ULL maintains it's present movement it will continue to become more vertically stacked since shear is lessening and upper level ridging is developing aloft.
Overstatement?
Not to be confused with the many posts yesterday telling us that 97L was dead, dead, dead.
Maybe east coast after that. NOT!
vary ture
Looks like I can expect much rain later tonight!
that wind shear map is off
I'm just making fun of the people who are making a big deal out of this little storm.
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Jeff... you make me laugh mate!! When you have a consensus of almost all models like we have with Bonnie then no amount of Miami casting will work!
ok then you may keep posting it
the center may be relocating there.. as that is were the strongest vortocity is..
are the Hurricane hunters headed back into the storm?
Exactly...and here's the forecast for my area of Orlando:
Friday: Isolated thunderstorms, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. Windy, with a east northeast wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
More like a sarcastic statement.
I see we have Bonnie... Wow. Went to marching band practice with a 40% chance. WTH?
It still seems to be underneath the convection.
oops looks ohs back lol
Nope, just more unnecessary sarcasm
I opined several times today that the LLC was gonna become exposed. It appeared to me to be on the verge of happening all afternoon.
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