TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The vortex was 43kt at flight level...which would support a 35kt intensity.
they halt public transportation at 40 mph sustained winds.
I hope you keep us updated.
above normal?a few bloggers from sfl were saying its been drier than usual?
Plenty of rain around my island,everyday...
not for other 24 too 48hrs at best
The Overall envelope is on track and the ridge is building in so wnw is all she can do.
Note the ridge building in from the East,Upper Right
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
...except when they're a cluster f###, well, you know what I mean....
where you buying supplies?
If the reunion is Saturday night you will have a great time and then let them all know about the Storm and they will leave by Sunday.... I also understand what you are going thru because I had a Wedding The Saturday before Katrina and had 300 of my Family here and then ran them all out of town on Sunday.... What a mess but got thru it though....
Taco :o)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the ENE (60°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 111° at 43kts (From the ESE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 211m (692ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 210m (689ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Thanks Taz..I appreciate the answer :)
Watches would be required as early as tomorrow afternoon with the 36 Hr timeline somewhere along the N GOM.
your the downcaster
The technical definition of watches and warnings would preclude them going up this early.
your welcome
Really....really..... ?
Location: 23.1°N 75.9°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Little better banding in the northern semicircle and improved outflow in the SW quadrant as the ULL continues to back away.
WTNT33 KNHC 222340
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
wind still the same but mb is now back up too 1007mb
Probably early Saturday
I track the envelope overall as its hard to find a CoC in the Levels.
what makes you say that? I thought she was building convection around her center...
lol..but im not from Florida
POST 1374
ok i hear ya
Post's like this do nothing but lower your blogger rating extreme.
you are attracting many flag's with these sort of post's.
He has a right to post [as does everyone] so just drop it.
Just my opinion (go easy on me).
Thanks Pat! :) I still think you are funny :) Hey, you are in Louisiana too right?
Not much doubt where its going with the current Intensity Forecast.....if it gets stronger then a more right move will occur. If it weakens then a more Left move will occur. It it stays as Forecasted then it looks like a Texas / Louisiana Border storm.
Viewing: 1351 - 1401
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