TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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huh?
1)I am quite sure they have roads in Louisiana and I expect Patrap will be along shortly to confirm it.
2)Apparently you are not familiar with the term "food for thought" its like a fun fact.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 22.3N74.9W, 22.7N75.4W, 23.1N75.9W, 23.1N75.9W-23.4N76.5W, 23.4N76.5W-23.9N77.5W, 23.4N76.5W-25.3N80.4W, BIX, TAM, 18.5N87W, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TS.Bonnie had a heading of 298.5degrees (6degrees north of WestNorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 43miles(~69kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~14mph(~23k/h),
and was 72miles(~116kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.
^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
Again I don't think the centers are decoupled, maybe not perfectly stacked, but not decoupled. I'm basing this on shortwave imagery which shows low level clouds pretty well at night and I see nothing south of Bonnie that resembles a naked LLC.
Just my 2 cents.
You ever try to do anything with the government, period?
Disclaimer, I am a public servant.
my state meant was unrelated the the state of emergency comment. Let me clarify that. It was a passing comment. A fun fact.
It appears the Ridge is going to break down faster then thought....i further track to the right will be coming.....Could be a Panhandle storm....IMO
I rarely even post Patrap but I don't think LA declaring a State of Emergency was a bad idea. If nothing else because of the oil situation. Gator is trying to compare LA declaring a SOE with Miami/Dade not.
You must work for FEMA :)
Well we lost the daylight at a bad time....we'll see what it looks like in the morning, but I'm pretty sure it's decoupled. It's not the worst one we've ever seen.
As for them getting back together it really depends. Often the surface center gets sucked back under the mid-level one but that can't really happen here. What may be more likely is that the current mid-level center dissipates and a new one forms closer to the surface center out over the gulf, assuming the storm is even able to strengthen, and they become vertically stacked then.
Eh? Eh?
The NHC mentioned confluence.
why would you assume I am somehow attacking you? Please explain what I said that was annoying to you. Dont be so sensitive.
I live in Hammond.. Dont think the track could get any close to Hammond and BR than that does...
And you've got more roads, a more affluent populaton and you're not below sea level.
lol
I will be up with ya! SE CC here :)
It's hard to tell what's going on for sure, do you have a link with some surface observations to look at? May give a hint. I've lost most of my links after a recent hardware disaster.
I think that one will come down to which is moving west the fastest.
I still think it is. We'll see if it tries to put on some more distance from Bonnie over the next couple days, but I don't expect anything stronger in the gulf than what we are seeing now.
that was funny...lol
KATRINA LOOKED WORSE WAS IN ABOUT THE SAME CONDITIONS WAS IN COOLER WATER ALITTLE LESS SHEAR AND NO UPPER LOW SO BASIKLY THE SAME SITUATION AND LOOKED WUT HAPPEN SRY FOR CAPS BUT IM VENTING
no I was not. I let that go. Lord what a bunch sensitive people.
Better start drinking a nice cold Mountain Dew:)
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
LOOKS pretty stacked to me all the way to the top.....it might be tilted some but, nothing shows this being De-coupled....visible would show that tomorrow tho.
Lol well I don't know about the rest of the *sensitive people* but you sound pretty argumentative to me:) Can we talk about something else now..like where is this silly storm going?
Yup. Not big, but I agree.
This system has been really annoying. I ate three crows when I said three different times (on my blog) that 97L wouldn't develop. Then it looked like this afternoon conditions had improved for development a lot, and it looked like a small tropical cyclone ready to take off, so I forecasted by the time Bonnie reaches S FL a range of max winds 60-90 mph. Now, I currently lean toward the 60 mph end of that forecast range.
This system is not as straightforward as 98L, which I feel I am about to eat a cookie for that one because it hasn't become anything stronger than a TD as I predicting early this morning.
It is not the same situation. Entirely different because Katrina had much more ideal conditions to work with. This storm is surrounded by a much more hostile environment.
Im gonna head to da WUnderland Upstairs.
Later gators and Cajuns.
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