TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Don't get it....SFLA is in the cone and even Dr Master's track has the storm going on shore in the Keys or on the mainland (south).
I recall in some past reports of powerful hurricanes that a few storms were estimated a category higher for a short period of time via satellite but since the measurements were not physically measured they were discounted. By the time a plane was vectoring through the storm it had weakened somewhat (maybe b/c of an EWRC who knows) and the historical data was never logged as tagging a higher category.
Wasn't there a Florida hurricane scrutinized as to whether or not it was a 4 or 5 for a while, then based off of damage assessments and research, years later it was deemed a cat 5? I can't recall the exact storm though.
What did we miss
IMO the only real potential for surprise with this would be a massive unexpected upswing in intensity. So far I don't see the conditions shifting quickly enough to allow that.
I'm taking a break. I think we should see some interesting developments tonight, so I'm going to take a nap now and stay up abit later tonight.
It doesn't leave us in the clear. The north side of the storm is the worst, so therefore, TS winds will more than likely impact us.
Conditions
Wind : NE 30KNT Gust 35KNT
Rain : Med
Pressure : Falling
Link
read the doc's blog........lol
No why should i be kidding?? I'am stressing my view that a sfl landfall can still happen. Those center relo's have something to do with that. Regardless some nasty weather is almost a guarantee as sfl will be on the dirty side of this cyclone.
Sheri
oops put years instead of hours. thank Angie
guess all those TS force winds were just a figment of our imagination
I know what I saw and I know what column to look under and there were a good amount of them
This is the exact kind of screed that keeps me coming back. Its like the insane rantings of Hurely on Lost. Endless entertainment I tell ya.
it's not out of the question but the further North it goes the more
it will interact with the ULL and it will not strengthen much if any.
If he's not leaving until 20yrs before landfall then he needed to leave back in 1990. :)
actually scratch that 33-34mph. Got mixed up
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 75.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
It never ceases in here to amaze me the stupid questions and statements by non regulars. People need to back off the bashing on Jeff too... my god, it has seemed North or north of what was expected all day!! Thank god this is approaching from the SE....
Hey Reed. How fast is the upper low moving compared to TD3.
The regulars can be just as stupid... true story. :-)
Miami, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
I concur.
upcaster! ... very unlike you reed. i will erase my
hardrive if TD#3 becomes a hurricane before
hitting Florida!
possibly in the Gulf but not any sooner i wouldnt think.
I see no "dry air".. everything's a go for gradual intensification ;)
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