TD 3 growing more organized
Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.
Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:
Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%
Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.
98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AOI
Sorry for the partial jump, that's the GHCC's fault.
I just think a jog to the N is just that, a jog. I know a lot of jogs add up, but just like anything else, it's got to be consistent.
I'm not saying yes, it's going N o yes it's going S I'm just want to say, consistency is crucial.
In a way yes it is developing quite slow. Unless things change prob have to be tomorrow morning for a TS to be called. Max wind readings were below 35mph. It was just rounded up to 35.
I can now just laugh and look forward to the forecasts from his office as this system progresses..LOL
It wont take as long to acquire winds...In fact, when its named, it may already have 45 mph winds.
Thanks for the info.. Seems we will have Bonnie very soon.. The ULL moving at a quick pace, allowing wind shear to really drop over the system.
You got that right Pat! And no one can "Mom" better than me! :o)
sometimes the foolishness is just too much...
and I love a good time and all but...
same gos with 98L wants too have a name or at lest a TD
Reed.. don't quote him.
210500 2259N 07446W 9880 00174 0080 +231 +210 111036 038 043 023 00
210530 2258N 07448W 9880 00178 0084 +226 +203 132032 035 046 019 03
If this trend continues it is worrying, however, the NHC did say it will resume wnw later this evening. I will not think the track or cone will shift more north and east unless this continues past the 8 advisory
true, I guess we will see what the next update brings us.
Yeah..the Marine Radio is all about Yakking on the Storm and Track
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
No. Anywhere along the northern gulf coast is in play.
Also the last frame hr 126 of the HWRF close up of the td3 is also showing something.
Mom-caster.
Itsa good thang Gamma.
210430 2300N 07445W 9875 00181 0080 +238 +214 110041 043 045 017 00
210500 2259N 07446W 9880 00174 0080 +231 +210 111036 038 043 023 00
210530 2258N 07448W 9880 00178 0084 +226 +203 132032 035 046 019 03
43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR
45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph)
Flight level winds reduced..
42.9 knots (~ 49.3 mph)
Tropical Storm
Probably a 40 mph TS.
I have my filter set for show average on comments. Sometimes an individual who is below average, I want to hide them just because of never ending comments eating up huge amounts of screen.
When I expand the comment I do not see the quote or ignore user feature (but other times it is right their). Is anyone else seeing this issue?
Example post #354 (nothing) vs. 414 (ignore available)
Some dry air at the mid-levels. but I expect a Good D-max for TD3 tonight or early morning.
approaches the coast and the center should stay off the coast.
If she continues to remain weak the steering pattern may
tend further NORTHWEST which may increase the chances for
more of a Florida impact.
I am pretty sure this is the NHC's forecast thinking.
watch for a more W-WNW movement in the next 8
hours or so.
Winds are a bit higher so it MAY get somewhere in the ballpark of 37-38 mph. If its higher than 37.5 they may upgrade.
TD2 of this year.. heck what a joke that was, but it happened. I'm not saying it will in no doubt be a Hurricane, I can't because things can change. Conditions are favorable for a bit more intensification then what was previously thought.
Agree.
When and if the oil hits brackish water does it act differently?
ma'am please listen to the experts, the ULL is pulling away therefore meaning, low shear, less dry air, and gradual strengthening.
210430 2300N 07445W 9875 00181 0080 238 214 110041 043 045 017 00
That goes along with typing in English huh??? oooops
Thats what I was trying to say.
Hurrikat meant like chocking dry air.. there is some very light dry air in the mid levels. I agree, a good DMAX can get this going.
Forward speed may be slowing. The HH found the center of TD3 25 miles SE of the position stated in this 5 pm, 20 minutes later at 5:20 pm Eastern.
Also, an important thing to note is the angle at which the storm is approaching the southernmost tip of Florida. Any deviation from forecast track, even a few miles, may be the difference between a landfall on the mainland and in the keys.
Viewing: 401 - 451
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