Moscow hits 102°F; hottest day ever in Finland; 90L a long-range theat
At 4pm local time today in Moscow, Russia, the temperature surpassed 100°F for the first time in recorded history. The high temperature of 100.8°F (37.8°C) recorded at the Moscow Observatory, the official weather location for Moscow, beat Moscow's previous record of 99.5°F (37.5°C), set just three days ago, on July 26. Prior to 2010, Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time was 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. Records in Moscow go back to 1879. Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C) today. Finland also recorded its hottest temperature in its history today, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914. There is little relief in sight, as the latest forecast for Moscow predicts continued highs in the 90s for most of the coming week.
A remarkable year for extreme heat
Finland's new national heat record makes it the fourteenth country (or semi-independent territory) to break an all-time hottest temperature record this year. My source for extreme temperature records is Chris Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. July in Moscow is easily going to smash the record for hottest month in Moscow's history. By my rough estimate, the temperature has been 18°F (10°C) above average this month. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures 5.3°C above average. Given that the planet as a whole has seen record high temperatures the past four months in a row, it should not be a surprise to see unprecedented heat waves like the Russian heat wave. A record warm planet "loads the dice" in favor of regional heat waves more extreme than anything experienced in recorded history.
Figure 1. Russia's heat wave has contributed to a severe fire season this July. Fires on dry peat bogs east of Moscow are covering the city with smoke as this photo taken yesterday (July 28, 2010.) Tiny red dots indicate hot spots of high surface temperatures associated with fires, and multiple clusters of such dots appear east of Moscow. Dull gray smoke mixes with opaque white clouds east and northeast of the capital city. Air pollution levels in Moscow due to the smoke and smog are so high that residents have been warned to stay home rather than go in to work. Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop-producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation, according to Bloomberg. Raging fires have destroyed hundreds of houses across Russia today and forced mass evacuations in the city of Voronezh, 300 miles southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. Image credit: NASA's Aqua satellite.
Fourteen extreme national high temperature records have been set in 2010
This year now ranks in second place for the most number of countries that have set extreme heat records, according to a list supplied to me today by Chris Burt. The new list removes a number of old disputed records, resulting in the year 2007 surpassing 2010 as the year with the most extreme heat records--fifteen. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. The list of countries (225) includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. One-third (33%) of those heat records were set in the past ten years. Ten years have had extreme heat records set at five or more countries on Mr. Burt's list:
2007: 15 records
2010: 14 records
2003: 12 records
2005: 11 records
1998: 9 records
1983: 9 records
2009: 6 records
2000: 5 records
1999: 5 records
1987: 5 records
I highly recommend the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt for those interested in weather records. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records. Here's a list of the fourteen nations that have set extreme heat records this year:
Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914.
Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.
Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.
Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.
Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.
Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.
Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.
Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.
Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.
Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.
Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.
Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.
The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.
Columbia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).
90L forms in far eastern Atlantic
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent thunderstorms in 90L, as peak rain rates were around 1 - 2 inches per hour. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses, 90L is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and upper level winds over the disturbance are diverging, which creates a vacuum effect that will enhance updrafts and thunderstorm growth. The disturbance is tracking into a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest. The steering currents for 90L are to the west-northwest, which will move it into this area of weaker shear. The disturbance is at 8°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin very well to spin up. As 90L's west-northwest motion carries it farther from the Equator, the additional spin the disturbance gains from the Earth's rotation will aid development, particularly once 90L gets north of 10°N latitude.The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.
Figure 2. IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 5:40 pm EDT.
Figure 3. Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.
Model Forecasts and Climatology
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.
Next update
I'll have an update by 8pm Friday.
Jeff Masters (with lots of help from Rob Carver on the 90L portion of the post!)
Reader Comments
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TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 55 62 66 70 72 73
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 55 62 66 70 72 73
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 29 34 40 46 52 59 67 74
SHEAR (KT) 13 13 6 7 5 7 6 10 6 4 3 12 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 57 69 85 98 107 137 167 163 176 195 349 306 358
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 149 144 143 144 147 147 151 157 157
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 150 150 144 145 147 153 154 158 165 164
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 72 76 74 73 69 68 72 74 73
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 14 12 14 23 40 46 50 49 52 58 53
200 MB DIV 32 50 72 65 43 62 75 64 39 43 7 30 46
LAND (KM) 1602 1593 1587 1579 1576 1582 1567 1392 1126 918 760 736 558
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.3 32.9 33.6 34.3 36.1 38.3 40.8 43.8 46.9 50.2 53.4 56.6
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 16 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 45 44 44 43 43 26 28 34 51 57 60 77 93
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GDACS
Red Flood Alert in China
Click to open an interactive map of overview weather map
Overview
Red flood alert in China Fri, 23 Jul 2010 00:00 +0000
Source: Dartmouth Flood Observatory based on media analysis
See also experimental flood monitoring system for China
Analysis: July 30, 2010: "Over 30,000 people were trapped in floodwaters after torrential downpour inundated a northeastern town of China, snapping all communication links to the area.More than 200 rescue workers were dispatched to the flooded Kouqian town in the J...
The flood started on 7/23/2010 and ended on 7/30/2010, with a duration of 8 days. This flood has severity class 2 (i.e. this is an extreme event with an estimated recurrence interval greater than 100 years).
The main cause is Monsoonal Rain.
The alert score is based on the reported death and displaced. Red = 1000 or more people killed or 800000 or more people displaced. Orange = 100 or more people killed or 80000 or more displaced.
* alert score: 3
* magnitude: 7.1
* duration: 8
* severity: 2
* affected region: 1049000 km2
Impact
Reports indicate that 1100 person(s) have been killed and 300000 have been displaced. No reports on damage have been found. The flood affected a region of approximately 1049000 km2.
Location
For the following locations damage has been reported: Current flooding is concentrated in Hubei, Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces. Dead and displaced entries are estimates for summer, 2010 flooding total to date
The approximate geographic location of this flood is 31.58 latitude and 111.07 longitude. This is the centroid of the affected area, as determined by the place names mentioned in the media.
Rivers in flood:
Maps (around approximate geographic location)
Saw your comment yesterday expressing surprise at the numbers of visitors to your blog.
I'm not surprised.
I'm a seasonal lurker since Summer '05. This is my first post. Your analysis of Rita, as I remember it, was ahead of everyone and called the landfall correctly even when the TX/LA border was outside or along the Northern edge of the "cone." Your objective analysis always makes sense to me, even though I don't understand completely the way it all interplays.
Just wanted to send you thanks and kudos for your excellent work.
Over the years, I've come to appreciate the other knowledgable folks in here, also. Thanks to you all who help the rest of us understand so we can make informed important choices and plans.
Its been hiding you for years it's seems,
The low is embedded within the ITCZ. The tropical wave axis has moved ahead of the low pressure center.
The urban legion here is that Big Oil opposes Cap N Trade or a Carbon Tax, they don't. They profit nicely when the price of the energy they are selling goes up. Which Cap N Trade or a Carbon Tax will do. Also massive federal regulations will discourage new players from getting into the market thereby protecting the Big Oil status quo, another reason Big Oil does not oppose the AGW agenda and in fact is all in favor of it. The only people that lose should the AGW agenda be adopted by Big Government is us little people that have to drive cars and heat homes. We get screwed, everybody else makes a nice profit (off us).
Now you might be thinking that markets for alternative energy will open up, and you are right, new markets that only the rich can afford will open up. However running YOUR house on solar or wind will be inefficient and cost prohibited. So what is joe sixpack really going to do when he can not longer afford to heat his house in the winter? He is going to fell trees and heat with wood. You can bet on that. That is until all the available trees are gone.
There is only one source of energy that could take the place of fossil fuels but the environmentalists killed that source in the 70's.
Been banned a few times for posting links when people was wanting direction to things....i sent them to my site......and i get banned...which i fully understand but was just trying to help.
Haha, good thing is nothing scary happened in 2006 ;)
You are correct; here you go from Wiki:
September and October
Hurricane Florence originated on September 3 from the complex merging of two tropical waves, creating one large low pressure area. The disturbance moved westward and became a tropical depression in the open waters of the Atlantic. On September 5, it organized further and was upgraded into Tropical Storm Florence. Florence tracked west-northwest and intensified into a hurricane on September 10 while south of Bermuda.
I posted this last nite on my website......funny how the yellow circle has backed up to the East. Not seen that often.
Excerpt:
GFS
Major Changes Implemented July 28. The upgrade to the GFS involves a increase in resolution from T382 (35 km) to T574 (27 km) and a series of significant changes to the model physics (see attached ppt).
These changes have resulted in a significant reduction in grid-point storms and an major improvement in precipitation threat scores during the convective season. Hurricane track forecast have improved by approximately 10% at day-5 in the Atlantic and by 50% in the Eastern Pacific. Hurricane intensity errors have been reduced by 30% at day-5 in the Atlantic and 50% in EPAC.
During evaluations by the NCEP Centers three areas of concern have been identified. There has been an increase in the negative speed bias throughout most of the atmosphere, which has resulted in weaker upper level jet maxima in higher latitudes and low level jets in the tropics. These weaker wind speeds are also evident in the tropical stratosphere. The low level warm temperature bias over land (T2M) has also increased and there has been some cooling in the stratosphere.
The vertical profile of the background diffusion has been identified as the source wind speed error. Test are currently underway to modify the profile to reduce the wind error without reducing the benefits from the new system. A combination of the PBL and shallow convection changes is the most likely source of the T2M bias. A new thermal roughness length algorithm has been develop to reduce this error and is also currently being test. Finally, the stratospheric cooling is due to the removal of negative moisture. A fix for this issue is also being tested.
These changes will be implemented as soon as testing is complete and the change can be scheduled for implementation. It is expected that implementation would be in approximately 6 months.
Bloggers won't be happy, cue complaints.
Tampa -- isn't the High in the SE supposed to break down and move Westward next week?
I'm happy they are going to be doing something to fix the problems with the new GFS. Once the issues are handled it should be a more formidable model.
Yea, I figured it was Florence. It spit out Gordon too IIRC.
Which would bring the storm closer to the SE coast instead of putting the NE in play? I believe the GFS has a storm hitting NC/SC border.
At the time i posted it late last nite...it seemed correct....but, since there is now a delay of a couple of days waiting for the combo to come together...it might get trapped now and then take a line straight toward the ConUs sorta like a storm that started with a letter "A" that hit in late August.
No, they new GFS has made significant improvements in other areas that are not problematic in the model.
Just don't spell it out, you'll get banned for using wirty dords.
Good to see you too StormW
Would the GFDL or HWRF be affected by this as well?
Thank Ya.
That track is almost exactly as we are talking about.....except this might be already together when it gets near Puerto Rico...SCARY!
Powering my house with solar is now free. The initial monthly expense, spread out over the life of my loan, was more than my electric bill would have been, but now the panels are paid for. They passed their payback point several years ago, and they have at least 10 more years of good life in them, too. So even for my older (and therefore more expensive) panels, I'm going to get 13-15 years of free electricity out of the deal.
These days there are federal rebates, and often local incentives, much cheaper panels, and sometimes even municipal financing that lets you pay for them in your property tax bill so that it's spread out over 15-20 years. If you sell your home, the equipment and loan transfer to the new owner. You end up paying less per month than you would for conventional utilities because the loans are low interest, guaranteed, and the repayment period is longer than the payback point for the equipment.
Conditions at 13001 as of
1100 GMT on 07/30/2010:
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.0 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg)
I disagree with that track, sir.
I may have to also now.....i posted that later....LOL...its ok to disagree. I made that late last nite and now things seemed to be delayed by a couple of days.....its gonna get blocked now...i was actually posting it to show how the yellow circle from NHC has move to the right.
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