Moscow hits 102°F; hottest day ever in Finland; 90L a long-range theat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:54 GMT le 30 juillet 2010

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At 4pm local time today in Moscow, Russia, the temperature surpassed 100°F for the first time in recorded history. The high temperature of 100.8°F (37.8°C) recorded at the Moscow Observatory, the official weather location for Moscow, beat Moscow's previous record of 99.5°F (37.5°C), set just three days ago, on July 26. Prior to 2010, Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time was 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. Records in Moscow go back to 1879. Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C) today. Finland also recorded its hottest temperature in its history today, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914. There is little relief in sight, as the latest forecast for Moscow predicts continued highs in the 90s for most of the coming week.

A remarkable year for extreme heat
Finland's new national heat record makes it the fourteenth country (or semi-independent territory) to break an all-time hottest temperature record this year. My source for extreme temperature records is Chris Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. July in Moscow is easily going to smash the record for hottest month in Moscow's history. By my rough estimate, the temperature has been 18°F (10°C) above average this month. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures 5.3°C above average. Given that the planet as a whole has seen record high temperatures the past four months in a row, it should not be a surprise to see unprecedented heat waves like the Russian heat wave. A record warm planet "loads the dice" in favor of regional heat waves more extreme than anything experienced in recorded history.


Figure 1. Russia's heat wave has contributed to a severe fire season this July. Fires on dry peat bogs east of Moscow are covering the city with smoke as this photo taken yesterday (July 28, 2010.) Tiny red dots indicate hot spots of high surface temperatures associated with fires, and multiple clusters of such dots appear east of Moscow. Dull gray smoke mixes with opaque white clouds east and northeast of the capital city. Air pollution levels in Moscow due to the smoke and smog are so high that residents have been warned to stay home rather than go in to work. Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop-producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation, according to Bloomberg. Raging fires have destroyed hundreds of houses across Russia today and forced mass evacuations in the city of Voronezh, 300 miles southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. Image credit: NASA's Aqua satellite.

Fourteen extreme national high temperature records have been set in 2010
This year now ranks in second place for the most number of countries that have set extreme heat records, according to a list supplied to me today by Chris Burt. The new list removes a number of old disputed records, resulting in the year 2007 surpassing 2010 as the year with the most extreme heat records--fifteen. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. The list of countries (225) includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. One-third (33%) of those heat records were set in the past ten years. Ten years have had extreme heat records set at five or more countries on Mr. Burt's list:

2007: 15 records
2010: 14 records
2003: 12 records
2005: 11 records
1998: 9 records
1983: 9 records
2009: 6 records
2000: 5 records
1999: 5 records
1987: 5 records

I highly recommend the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt for those interested in weather records. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records. Here's a list of the fourteen nations that have set extreme heat records this year:

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Columbia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

90L forms in far eastern Atlantic
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent thunderstorms in 90L, as peak rain rates were around 1 - 2 inches per hour. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses, 90L is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and upper level winds over the disturbance are diverging, which creates a vacuum effect that will enhance updrafts and thunderstorm growth. The disturbance is tracking into a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest. The steering currents for 90L are to the west-northwest, which will move it into this area of weaker shear. The disturbance is at 8°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin very well to spin up. As 90L's west-northwest motion carries it farther from the Equator, the additional spin the disturbance gains from the Earth's rotation will aid development, particularly once 90L gets north of 10°N latitude.The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.


Figure 2. IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 5:40 pm EDT.


Figure 3. Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.

Model Forecasts and Climatology
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.

Next update
I'll have an update by 8pm Friday.

Jeff Masters (with lots of help from Rob Carver on the 90L portion of the post!)

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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
No model runs but it's not deactivated yet so what in the wide world of sports is going on ?
Saints training camp starts today...and it's gonna be hot,hot, HOT!
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Quoting StormW:
Have they quit running the models on 90L? Last update was 00Z.
Probably skipping right to the 12z runs.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
919. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Have they quit running the models on 90L? Last update was 00Z.


I don't see a 6Z run on either...yet. Probably wait til the 12Z runs.
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Quoting IKE:


NHC just about verified what you said. Latest GFS and the 6Z NOGAPS aren't that aggressive with 90L.

ECMWF is on 00Z runs. CMC is the CMC.


Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good thing for development.


Thanks!
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No model runs but it's not deactivated yet so what in the wide world of sports is going on ?
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Quoting KimberlyB:


Wow. That's a big sucka coming off the coast. If they do combine, is that a good thing, bad thing, or a toss-up?


Good thing for development.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
Good Morning...

ECMWF having a little hard time resolving this one as well as GFS, but should be expected as it still lies in the ITCZ.
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Good morning Ike.I see the Crownweather met is at it again lol.Lets play realism.11 invests so far, 1 true storm alex 1 tropical cough depressin 1 named tropical wave. Well a invest means potential.Paul Bryant used to if you have potential it means you have done nothing yet.I fail to see the increased hype and thousands of posts coming for a weak group of thunderstorms 4000 miles from the east coast of Florida lol.I once recalled a great nhc forecaster once say people in the us conus should not get nervous about a tropical system untill it approached the lesser antilles, Neil Frank. So keep and eye on it but dont over hype or scrutinize.Hey life is to short get out do something constructive today for God does not promise us a tomorrow.Have a good day and God Bless.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
These two are going to interact to create a system, at least that's what the models are showing. The wave coming off Africa is going to become part of 90L.



Wow. That's a big sucka coming off the coast. If they do combine, is that a good thing, bad thing, or a toss-up?
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909. IKE
Quoting KimberlyB:
Mornin' All. Mornin' Storm, KotG, IKE, CT and any1 else I missed.

Looking forward to reading your update Storm.

So many different options and opinions on what 90L is going to do. Would it be fair assumption that it probably won't do much of anything for the next couple days?


NHC just about verified what you said. Latest GFS and the 6Z NOGAPS aren't that aggressive with 90L.

ECMWF is on 00Z runs. CMC is the CMC.
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These two are going to interact to create a system, at least that's what the models are showing. The wave coming off Africa is going to become part of 90L.

Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
good read wunderkid
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A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
Happy Friday to all
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Quoting KimberlyB:
Mornin' All. Mornin' Storm, KotG, IKE, CT and any1 else I missed.

Looking forward to reading your update Storm.

So many different options and opinions on what 90L is going to do. Would it be fair assumption that it probably won't do much of anything for the next couple days?


Very fair assumption at this point.......... :)
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
Mornin' All. Mornin' Storm, KotG, IKE, CT and any1 else I missed.

Looking forward to reading your update Storm.

So many different options and opinions on what 90L is going to do. Would it be fair assumption that it probably won't do much of anything for the next couple days?
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I'm afraid the only thing that is going to break the heat for us this year is November. Or I guess I should say, I hope that is what it is and not a storm.
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Hmm this is what I am thinking as well

Invest 90-L In The Eastern Atlantic:
I am monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms, designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center, located about 700 miles or so southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are fairly favorable for development as wind shear values are running at around 10 knots and there is plenty of moisture to work with. One factor that argues against development anytime soon is that Invest 90-L is embedded in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and this will cause this system to compete with other convection nearby and rob its energy.

I expect Invest 90-L to slowly track westward this weekend with a forward speed of less than 10 mph. By early next week, the steering currents around this system may cause it to turn to the west-northwest. In addition, shear values may increase over this system next week as the low-level wind flow east of the Lesser Antilles increases in speed and this could slow down the development and intensification process.

I do not anticipate development into a tropical depression today through Sunday; however, it may increase enough in organization to be classified as a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. After that, development and intensification highly depends on how favorable the environment will be. If the wind shear does develop, then very slow intensification would occur; however, if the SHIPS guidance forecast of shear ends up being correct (which forecasts favorable conditions through much of next week), then more robust intensification could occur. My take is that the SHIPS guidance tends to under forecast shear, so I would say slow, but steady intensification next week.

As for possible tracks, as I already mentioned I expect a westward track this weekend with a west-northwest track expected next week. By later next week, a weakness is forecast to develop in the subtropical high pressure system, however, I think any northwest turn caused by this weakness will be minimal and 90-L should essentially miss the weakness. Much of the model guidance like the GFS, Canadian and NOGAPS models forecast that this system will track north of the Lesser Antilles as the system feels the weakness. The Canadian model eventually shows a curve out into the open Atlantic. One monkey wrench in this equation is the European model’s flip flop forecast of either this becoming a Caribbean Cruiser and being located to the south of Jamaica in 10 days or a system that tracks up into the Bahamas and off of the US Southeast coast in 10 days.

A couple of thoughts here, personally I think many of the model guidance may be overdeveloping this system too early and thus tracking it too far northward. The Canadian model in particular is way too far north in its forecast track. So, I think over the next few days, you will see a shift to the south in the model guidance and I’m leaning strongly towards the European model’s forecast, but with a slight adjustment northward, so that it potentially enters the Caribbean around 16 or 16.5 North Latitude next Friday.

Let me expand my thoughts regarding potential organization and intensification, this system is currently pretty disorganized and I think it will take at least this weekend to become a tropical depression. Systems embedded in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone usually take quite a while to develop, so I would say Monday or Tuesday, you may see this system classified as a tropical depression. Don’t get me wrong, I think there is a very good chance that this will develop, but it may take a few days for it to happen.

This thinking supports the idea of a more westward track rather than a northwest turn like some of the model guidance suggests. So, like I mentioned early, I’m leaning towards the European model’s forecast and I think you will see the rest of the model guidance shift to the south in its forecast tracks over the next few days.
Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic:
I also wanted to briefly mention a tropical disturbance that is located over the southeastern Caribbean. I think the chances of this system developing are very low as vorticity values are not consolidating and it probably will remain too disorganized to take advantage of a somewhat favorable environment.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday.

Invest 90L Information
from CrownWeather.com
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Thank you Storm.I will read it this evening.Unless I can sneak on computer at work to read it real quick.
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I agree MsGambler.Unfortunately I have to work the weekend.The local weather on channel 10 said the High Pressure should start weaking next week.I hope it does to releive the heat.Then when 90l starts to get moving it can build back in.
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@ IKE Yeah so hot, I cancelled my gig out on a bar patio in West Pensacola. Getting heat stress/exhaustion is no way to start a weekend...

George
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning Ike.It is suppose to be 98* in Mobile with index @110* for today.Tomorrow 100* and Index 115*.Boy that must be one strong High Pressure setting over us right now.
Granny, my best advise is to stay inside and drink plenty of cold "beverages" this weekend...LOL
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Good Morning............From Dr. M's blog:

Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.

Very interesting stats which also support other NHC statistics that about 60 waves emerge from Africa during the Atlantic Season and we know that only a very small portion of those waves actually become cyclones with the peak of formation occuring in the peak Mid-August to September time frames.

Don't have a clue what will happen with 90L in the long term but I think that there is more climatology "against" this one based on the particular time of the year (late July) versus if we were in mid-to-late August.....I would be curious to know if Dr. Hart's research was based upon the peak periods of the season...I am not sure that these numbers would hold water at this particular time (only my personal opinion); you would have to have a higher frequency of waves emerging from the coast to get a true statistical model and that does not occur until the CV season gets started in earnest with strong waves emerging off the coast about every 3-5 days .

Other than that, not looking forward to the 100 degree temps later on today in North Florida. Stay out of the heat and keep hydrated if you have to be outside today.
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9265
Storm what time will you have your sypnosis for today?I am leaving at 8:00 for work.Was hoping to read it before I left for work.If you want have it ready I will read it this evening.TIA
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90L looks okay to me. I still expect continued slow development as long as the dry air doesn't become too much. However, it appears there is plenty of moisture to work with right now.
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Have a good weekend Destin.
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See ya Destin, don't run into any 'spurious' lows.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
886. IKE
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning Ike.It is suppose to be 98* in Mobile with index @110* for today.Tomorrow 100* and Index 115*.Boy that must be one strong High Pressure setting over us right now.


Morning.

I'll go with 20% on 90L.
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Good morning Ike.It is suppose to be 98* in Mobile with index @110* for today.Tomorrow 100* and Index 115*.Boy that must be one strong High Pressure setting over us right now.
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I think the next TWO will be 20-30%. Not much changed over night, and it's iffy right now IMO.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
What happened in that last frame of the 00Z ECMWF? From Carribbean straight north to south of Bermuda. Funny, obviously an error.


That's the end of the 12z ECMWF. >.< hasn't updated.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
879. IKE
Too Hot


Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 110. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
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INV/90/L
MARK
8.3N/31.5W
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Quoting texwarhawk:

Is it possible to have CISK occur within the ITCZ? Thanks in advance!


As far as I'm aware the system would have to already be a TC with the appropriate outflow/surface inflow for the CISK feedback to happen. (so not imbedded in the ITCZ)
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Quoting texwarhawk:


still major hurricane a surface a few days out from landfall- really needs to be watched if the models keep this up.


for sure it needs to be watched - anything is worth watching after last week. If it does organise like that, we would hopefully be looking at a recurve situation, maybe a threat for the NE US at a squeeze. Too far out now, good little system to observe though - the balance of organisation affecting the track.
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Quoting StormW:


Because it's within the ITCZ...steering just north of it is very weak at the moment. Being in the ITCZ, it's really just going to "drift" so to speak, as there is no steering to speak of in the ITCZ.


thanks, storm. I learned a LOT with Bonnie, this one looks like a good learning experience, too.
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Quoting StormW:


Because it's within the ITCZ...steering just north of it is very weak at the moment. Being in the ITCZ, it's really just going to "drift" so to speak, as there is no steering to speak of in the ITCZ.

Is it possible to have CISK occur within the ITCZ? Thanks in advance!
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Quoting calder:


remember these are the 900mb winds so not surface


still major hurricane a surface a few days out from landfall- really needs to be watched if the models keep this up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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