Moscow hits 102°F; hottest day ever in Finland; 90L a long-range theat
At 4pm local time today in Moscow, Russia, the temperature surpassed 100°F for the first time in recorded history. The high temperature of 100.8°F (37.8°C) recorded at the Moscow Observatory, the official weather location for Moscow, beat Moscow's previous record of 99.5°F (37.5°C), set just three days ago, on July 26. Prior to 2010, Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time was 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. Records in Moscow go back to 1879. Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C) today. Finland also recorded its hottest temperature in its history today, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914. There is little relief in sight, as the latest forecast for Moscow predicts continued highs in the 90s for most of the coming week.
A remarkable year for extreme heat
Finland's new national heat record makes it the fourteenth country (or semi-independent territory) to break an all-time hottest temperature record this year. My source for extreme temperature records is Chris Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. July in Moscow is easily going to smash the record for hottest month in Moscow's history. By my rough estimate, the temperature has been 18°F (10°C) above average this month. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures 5.3°C above average. Given that the planet as a whole has seen record high temperatures the past four months in a row, it should not be a surprise to see unprecedented heat waves like the Russian heat wave. A record warm planet "loads the dice" in favor of regional heat waves more extreme than anything experienced in recorded history.
Figure 1. Russia's heat wave has contributed to a severe fire season this July. Fires on dry peat bogs east of Moscow are covering the city with smoke as this photo taken yesterday (July 28, 2010.) Tiny red dots indicate hot spots of high surface temperatures associated with fires, and multiple clusters of such dots appear east of Moscow. Dull gray smoke mixes with opaque white clouds east and northeast of the capital city. Air pollution levels in Moscow due to the smoke and smog are so high that residents have been warned to stay home rather than go in to work. Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop-producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation, according to Bloomberg. Raging fires have destroyed hundreds of houses across Russia today and forced mass evacuations in the city of Voronezh, 300 miles southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. Image credit: NASA's Aqua satellite.
Fourteen extreme national high temperature records have been set in 2010
This year now ranks in second place for the most number of countries that have set extreme heat records, according to a list supplied to me today by Chris Burt. The new list removes a number of old disputed records, resulting in the year 2007 surpassing 2010 as the year with the most extreme heat records--fifteen. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. The list of countries (225) includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. One-third (33%) of those heat records were set in the past ten years. Ten years have had extreme heat records set at five or more countries on Mr. Burt's list:
2007: 15 records
2010: 14 records
2003: 12 records
2005: 11 records
1998: 9 records
1983: 9 records
2009: 6 records
2000: 5 records
1999: 5 records
1987: 5 records
I highly recommend the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt for those interested in weather records. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records. Here's a list of the fourteen nations that have set extreme heat records this year:
Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914.
Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.
Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.
Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.
Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.
Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.
Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.
Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.
Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.
Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.
Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.
Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.
The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.
Columbia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).
90L forms in far eastern Atlantic
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent thunderstorms in 90L, as peak rain rates were around 1 - 2 inches per hour. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses, 90L is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and upper level winds over the disturbance are diverging, which creates a vacuum effect that will enhance updrafts and thunderstorm growth. The disturbance is tracking into a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest. The steering currents for 90L are to the west-northwest, which will move it into this area of weaker shear. The disturbance is at 8°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin very well to spin up. As 90L's west-northwest motion carries it farther from the Equator, the additional spin the disturbance gains from the Earth's rotation will aid development, particularly once 90L gets north of 10°N latitude.The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.
Figure 2. IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 5:40 pm EDT.
Figure 3. Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.
Model Forecasts and Climatology
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.
Next update
I'll have an update by 8pm Friday.
Jeff Masters (with lots of help from Rob Carver on the 90L portion of the post!)
Reader Comments
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Maybe you should take some time and get the lay of the land before you open your mouth. You apparently have no idea what goes on in here.
And why would there be a need to use an "ignore user" button in a tropical weather blog?
Never mind, I think I've figured it out...
IVCN is a simple intensity model consensus computed as the average of the DSHP (Decay-SHIPS), LGEM, HWFI (interpolated HWRF), GHMI (adjusted GFDI), and GFNI (interpolated GFDN). IVCN requires at least two of the five member models to be present. The member models forming the IVCN consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.
Ummmm, maybe you should reread what I said, because I wasn't exactly agreeing with you there.
True that. But just remember, in 1969 on this date the season stood at 1-0-0...yet finished with 18 tropical cyclones, including 12 hurricanes (a record that stood until 2005), one of those being a bad girl named Camille. As I said yesterday: bustcasters beware... :-)
I thought that was the case, hard to make a point when it gets twisted into a compliment.lol =)
Drak at FSU--I did not know that. Outstanding! The youth on the site is one of the reasons I visit and Drak has really developed over the years.
Easy does it, give the person a chance to understand that this is not a chat room. People need time get used to the routine in here, no need to be rude! It's not that busy right now.
Seriously, was that comment really necessary? The guy apologized, yet you come back with that condescending remark? Read this; it may help you not appear to be so out of touch.
WHXX01 KWBC 301827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100730 1800 100731 0600 100731 1800 100801 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.1N 32.0W 9.4N 33.2W 9.9N 34.6W 10.1N 36.1W
BAMD 9.1N 32.0W 9.6N 33.4W 10.3N 35.1W 10.8N 37.2W
BAMM 9.1N 32.0W 9.7N 33.2W 10.3N 34.9W 10.8N 36.9W
LBAR 9.1N 32.0W 9.7N 33.6W 10.9N 35.9W 11.9N 38.5W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100801 1800 100802 1800 100803 1800 100804 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 38.0W 10.8N 43.6W 12.6N 50.9W 15.5N 58.2W
BAMD 11.0N 39.6W 11.1N 45.6W 12.0N 52.1W 13.4N 57.9W
BAMM 11.0N 39.3W 11.0N 45.3W 12.0N 51.9W 14.3N 58.0W
LBAR 12.8N 41.7W 14.0N 48.4W 15.1N 54.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 42KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 31.2W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 30.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Apparently my two hours of sleep has made my sarcasm a bit rusty. My point was that Jeff screaming about the east coast watching this or the gulf coast or any coast on this half of the continent is ridiculous. Saying it's heading this direction, like it's some big major news, is ridiculous. EVERYONE in those areas should keep an eye on ANYTHING that develops.
Making a prediction that the storm MAY hit the east coast or MAY move into the GOM or MAY go anywhere west, south or north of where it is now is the same as forecasting that ice will be cold or water will be wet.
I might add that the youth on the site is why I don't like to visit at times also LOL
WHXX01 KWBC 301827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100730 1800 100731 0600 100731 1800 100801 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.1N 32.0W 9.4N 33.2W 9.9N 34.6W 10.1N 36.1W
BAMD 9.1N 32.0W 9.6N 33.4W 10.3N 35.1W 10.8N 37.2W
BAMM 9.1N 32.0W 9.7N 33.2W 10.3N 34.9W 10.8N 36.9W
LBAR 9.1N 32.0W 9.7N 33.6W 10.9N 35.9W 11.9N 38.5W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100801 1800 100802 1800 100803 1800 100804 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 38.0W 10.8N 43.6W 12.6N 50.9W 15.5N 58.2W
BAMD 11.0N 39.6W 11.1N 45.6W 12.0N 52.1W 13.4N 57.9W
BAMM 11.0N 39.3W 11.0N 45.3W 12.0N 51.9W 14.3N 58.0W
LBAR 12.8N 41.7W 14.0N 48.4W 15.1N 54.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 42KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 31.2W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 30.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902010 07/30/10 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 42 51 58 62 66 70 72
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 42 51 58 62 66 70 72
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 36 41 47 55 63 71
SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 5 7 5 7 5 3 3 7 17 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 1 1 1 2 1 -3 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 85 101 109 110 126 165 151 177 147 251 321 333 336
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 148 144 143 146 148 149 152 159 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 151 152 149 145 146 151 155 157 159 165 160
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 70 71 78 75 75 68 68 70 70 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 14 13 17 28 35 52 49 51 56 57 49
200 MB DIV 42 65 62 37 42 80 66 57 17 25 19 38 88
LAND (KM) 1601 1594 1590 1578 1572 1560 1517 1258 1017 823 737 692 507
LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.9 14.3
LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.6 33.2 34.1 34.9 36.9 39.3 42.1 45.3 48.6 51.9 55.0 58.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 11 13 15 16 16 16 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 46 44 42 43 40 28 30 37 55 57 74 88 80
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 38. 41. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 22. 31. 38. 42. 46. 50. 52.
** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/30/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/30/2010 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Open my mouth? I just had a question. Maybe you should take the time and figure out that a truly intelligent person can explain in simple terms what is going on. Some of the most gifted economists I have ever known (real economist who negotiated billions during the 1982 sovereign foreign debt crisis) can explain in simple terms what is going on in the global economy just as a gifted meteorologist shoudl be able to do. Some people will come to this blog wanting to learn (like I do) and not be patronized. Keep your mouth shut and so will I.
SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 5 7 5 7 5 3 3 7 17 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 1 1 1 2 1 -3 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 85 101 109 110 126 165 151 177 147 251 321 333 336
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 148 144 143 146 148 149 152 159 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 151 152 149 145 146 151 155 157 159 165 160
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 70 71 78 75 75 68 68 70 70 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 14 13 17 28 35 52 49 51 56 57 49
200 MB DIV 42 65 62 37 42 80 66 57 17 25 19 38 88
LAND (KM) 1601 1594 1590 1578 1572 1560 1517 1258 1017 823 737 692 507
LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.9 14.3
LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.6 33.2 34.1 34.9 36.9 39.3 42.1 45.3 48.6 51.9 55.0 58.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 11 13 15 16 16 16 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 46 44 42 43 40 28 30 37 55 57 74 88 80
Your really going to enjoy FSU life (every one guy there is 4 girls, 1 to 4 odds), especially when you see how old the Met building is. Its one of the older buildings on that side of the campus. Plus the NWS is in the same building. I also recommend taking classes over in the geography department because there great fillers and also pertain to weather.
I'm also pretty sure most of the math courses are in the same building.
I wonder if they will relocate it to the african wave. my gut says no, but its pretty impressive looking and appears to be in the process of merging with 90L. 90L itself has become less organized because of that wave and i believe with the wave moving at 10-15 knots and 90L moving at 5 knots that they will merge.
Convection has not begun to fire yet in the wave but the overall structure and broad cyclonic rotation is pretty evident on the vis loops.......It looks pretty impressive to my eyes at the moment.
You guys are right. I have been coming here for a few years but never really jumped at the chance to learn. Gonna keep quiet and watch for a while.....
It may overtake 90L on Saturday and add a whole bunch of convection to the closed Low near 9N, 31W.
Stay tuned to, "As the Invest turns".
At 144hrs, 90L east of the Windwards and weaker
Link
From one learner to another, you honestly could NOT do any better then to learn from StormW. He's experienced, knowledgeable, patient and kind to all those who genuinely want to learn. His blogs are all well worth the read and include a lot of fantastic information for us to learn from. Take that for what you well. Just my opinion, based on my years of experience following him and learning from him.
All,
If this is JFV, then he deserves a round of applause for improving his writing skills
sorry, wrong link, that's just my blog,I'll have it up in a minute
No, his new handle is Bipartisanship
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accuweather'ss take, They almost guarantee a Colin by monday!
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